3. FAA Identifier: ECG Lat/Long: 36-15- 38.0900N / 076-10- 28.4600W 36-15.634833N / 076- 10.474333W 36.2605806 / - 76.1745722 (estimated) Elevation: 12 ft. / 3.7 m (surveyed) Variation: 07W (1975) From city: 3 miles SE of ELIZABETH CITY, NC

4.  KECG 111754Z 09006KT 5SM -RA BR BKN070 OVC095 21/19 A3005 RMK AO2 RAB1657 SLP176 P0003 6//// T02110189 10228 20206 58004=  KECG 111854Z 06006KT 7SM FEW090 22/19 A3003 RMK AO2 RAE21 SLP167 P0000 T02170194=  KECG 111954Z 03006KT 9SM BKN080 OVC100 22/19 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP157 T02170194=  KECG 112054Z 06011KT 10SM SCT032 OVC080 22/19 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP156 60000 T02170189 56020=  KECG 112154Z 07006KT 7SM FEW065 SCT095 BKN120 22/19 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP155 T02170194=  KECG 112254Z 09005KT 6SM BR BKN090 BKN120 21/19 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP152 T02110194=  KECG 112354Z 08003KT 5SM BR OVC090 21/19 A2998 RMK AO2 RAB36E46 SLP153 P0000 60000 T02060194 10222 20206 55004=  KECG 120054Z 00000KT 5SM -RA BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC090 21/20 A2998 RMK AO2 RAB03 CIG 015V037 SLP152 P0001 T02060200=  KECG 120058Z 00000KT 5SM -RA BR SCT009 BKN020 OVC095 21/19 A2998 RMK AO2 CIG 015V037 P0000=  KECG 120054Z 00000KT 5SM -RA BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC090 21/20 A2998=  KECG 120135Z 00000KT 9SM BKN007 OVC016 20/18 A2998 RMK AO2 RAE01 CIG 005V009 P0000=  KECG 120154Z 28003KT 6SM BR BKN007 BKN012 BKN028 19/19 A2998 RMK AO2 RAE01 SLP151 P0000 T01940189=  KECG 120201Z 30003KT 7SM FEW007 SCT012 BKN028 19/18 A2998 RMK AO2=  KECG 120154Z 28003KT 6SM BR BKN007 BKN012 BKN028 19/19 A2998=  KECG 120214Z 00000KT 7SM BKN010 20/19 A2997 RMK AO2 CIG 008V012=  KECG 120223Z 00000KT 4SM BR SCT008 19/19 A2998 RMK AO2=  KECG 120254Z AUTO 36003KT 2 1/2SM BR SCT031 SCT041 BKN060 20/19 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 60001 T02000194 55001 TSNO=  KECG 120305Z AUTO 01005KT 3SM BR FEW031 SCT065 21/19 A2997 RMK AO2 TSNO=  KECG 120354Z AUTO 06005KT 4SM BR SCT037 BKN050 21/20 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP147 T02060200 TSNO=  KECG 120454Z AUTO 09006KT 10SM FEW120 21/19 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP142 T02110194 402281183 TSNO=  KECG 120554Z AUTO 09004KT 10SM FEW110 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP138 60001 T02060189 10211 20194 56013 TSNO=  KECG 120654Z AUTO 10005KT 9SM -RA BKN100 BKN120 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAB19 SLP136 P0000 T02060189 TSNO=  KECG 120743Z AUTO 12006KT 10SM BKN022 BKN029 BKN100 21/18 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE16 P0001 TSNO=  KECG 120754Z AUTO 13013G18KT 10SM BKN016 BKN022 OVC029 21/18 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE16 SLP135 P0001 T02110183 TSNO=  KECG 120854Z AUTO 11006KT 10SM SCT019 BKN028 OVC032 21/19 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP131 60001 T02060189 58007 TSNO=  KECG 120905Z AUTO 11008KT 10SM FEW019 BKN030 OVC037 21/19 A2992 RMK AO2 TSNO=  KECG 120932Z AUTO 10007KT 3SM BR FEW017 BKN026 OVC033 20/18 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB08E17 P0000 TSNO=  KECG 120954Z AUTO 09007KT 10SM FEW017 BKN021 OVC028 20/18 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB08E17 SLP128 P0000 T02000183 TSNO=

5. KECG 120954Z AUTO 09007KT 10SM FEW017 BKN021 OVC028 20/18 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB08E17 SLP128 P0000 T02000183 TSNO= KECG 121020Z AUTO 08006KT 10SM SCT024 OVC030 21/18 A2992 RMK AO2 TSNO= KECG 121032Z AUTO 08007KT 9SM -RA FEW018 BKN026 OVC032 21/18 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB25 P0000 TSNO= KECG 121054Z 08007KT 5SM BR SCT022 OVC026 20/18 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB25E49 SLP131 P0000 T02000183= KECG 121124Z 09008KT 2SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN018 OVC026 20/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0001= KECG 121133Z 09007KT 2SM -RA BR BKN008 BKN017 OVC024 20/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0001= KECG 121142Z 08006KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR BKN008 OVC017 20/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0002= KECG 121154Z 08008KT 2SM BR OVC006 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB07E54 CIG 005V011 SLP132 P0002 60003 7//// T02000189 10211 20200 53001= KECG 121215Z 07008KT 4SM BR BKN006 OVC009 20/19 A2993 RMK AO2 CIG 004V008=

13. › A distinct forcing mechanism is needed for concentrated precipitation. › Widespread upslope precipitation will ‘rob’ vertical motion from the coastal convergence zone. › Pay close attention to the SREF when it looks blotchy for risk of rainfall – this tells you that one of the parameterization schemes is teetering between off and on.

16. FAA Identifier: EKN Lat/Long: 38-53- 22.0000N / 079-51- 25.7000W 38-53.366667N / 079- 51.428333W 38.8894444 / - 79.8571389 (estimated) Elevation: 1987 ft. / 605.6 m (surveyed) Variation: 07W (1985) From city: 2 miles S of ELKINS, WV

17.  KEKN 111751Z AUTO 11004KT 10SM BKN100 21/08 A3012 RMK AO2 SLP201 T02110078 10217 20078 58016 TSNO=  KEKN 111851Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM BKN100 21/06 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP196 T02110061 TSNO=  KEKN 111951Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN085 20/08 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP195 T02000083 TSNO=  KEKN 112051Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC090 19/09 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP192 T01940089 57012 TSNO=  KEKN 112151Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC085 19/10 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP186 T01940100 TSNO=  KEKN 112251Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM OVC080 18/10 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP186 T01830100 TSNO=  KEKN 112351Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC085 17/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP185 T01670106 10217 20167 56007 TSNO=  KEKN 120051Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA OVC070 16/12 A3007 RMK AO2 RAB50 SLP186 P0000 T01560117 TSNO=  KEKN 120151Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC065 16/11 A3007 RMK AO2 RAE07 SLP186 P0000 T01610106 TSNO=  KEKN 120251Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC070 15/11 A3006 RMK AO2 RAB10E36 SLP181 P0000 60000 T01500106 50000 TSNO=  KEKN 120351Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA OVC070 14/11 A3005 RMK AO2 RAB08 SLP178 P0001 T01390111 TSNO=  KEKN 120451Z AUTO 15006KT 10SM OVC075 15/09 A3004 RMK AO2 RAE46 SLP170 P0000 T01500089 402170050 TSNO=  KEKN 120551Z AUTO 00000KT 5SM RA BR FEW028 SCT037 OVC065 13/11 A3003 RMK AO2 RAB0453 SLP165 P0006 60007 T01280106 10167 20128 58011  TSNO=  KEKN 120606Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM +RA BKN028 BKN036 OVC060 13/10 A3003 RMK AO2 P0005 TSNO=  KEKN 120606Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM +RA BKN028 BKN036 OVC060 13/10A3003=  KEKN 120619Z AUTO VRB03KT 4SM RA BR BKN028 BKN034 OVC060 13/11 A3002 RMK AO2 P0009 TSNO=  KEKN 120619Z AUTO VRB03KT 4SM RA BR BKN028 BKN034 OVC060 13/11A3002=  KEKN 120631Z AUTO 32005KT 6SM -RA BR SCT026 OVC070 12/11 A3002 RMK AO2 P0011 TSNO=  KEKN 120651Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM RA BR SCT026 OVC075 13/11 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP159 P0018 T01280106 TSNO=  KEKN 120659Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM RA BR SCT028 OVC075 12/11 A3000 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO=  KEKN 120651Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM RA BR SCT026 OVC075 13/11 A3001=  KEKN 120659Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM RA BR SCT028 OVC075 12/11 A3000=  KEKN 120751Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM -RA BR SCT026 BKN070 OVC100 12/11 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP146 P0006 T01220111 TSNO=  KEKN 120830Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM BKN028 OVC100 13/11 A2996 RMK AO2 RAE02 P0000 TSNO=  KEKN 120851Z AUTO 10003KT 10SM BKN026 BKN031 OVC100 14/11 A2995 RMK AO2 RAE02 SLP137 P0000 60024 T01440111 58027 TSNO=  KEKN 120910Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM -RA FEW025 BKN080 OVC100 15/12 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB08 P0000 TSNO=  KEKN 120910Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM -RA FEW025 BKN080 OVC100 15/12A2995=  KEKN 120951Z AUTO 13008KT 090V160 10SM SCT028 OVC095 15/12 A2993 RMK AO2 RAB08E35 SLP131 P0002 T01500117 TSNO=

18. KEKN 120951Z AUTO 13008KT 090V160 10SM SCT028 OVC095 15/12 A2993 RMK AO2 RAB08E35 SLP131 P0002 T01500117 TSNO= KEKN 121051Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT028 SCT080 OVC100 16/12 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB0956E09 SLP124 P0000 T01560117 TSNO= KEKN 121121Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM -RA BKN025 BKN031 OVC100 15/12 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB04 P0000 TSNO= KEKN 121121Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM -RA BKN025 BKN031 OVC100 15/12A2991= KEKN 121138Z AUTO 14005KT 10SM SCT025 BKN030 OVC100 16/12 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB04E37 P0001 TSNO= KEKN 121151Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM -RA SCT027 BKN075 OVC095 16/12 A2990 RMK AO2 RAB04 SLP124 P0001 60027 70034 T01560117 10161 20122 56014

26.  A rather dry air mass (preceding a rain storm) may lead to higher than expected ceilings.  Evaporative cooling which occurred with the onset of the heavier rain also kept ceilings higher than expected as did a mean southeast (downslope) flow.  Widespread isentropic uplift leads to reasonable rainfall estimates.