1. Scenario Overview HA/DR SETTING (COMPLEX CONTINGENCY)HA/DR SETTING (COMPLEX CONTINGENCY) – FLOODING – TYPHOON / OIL SPILL – DRY SEASON – EARTHQUAKE – CONTAGIOUS DISEASE – DIPLACED PERSONS FROM HALOA

2. Southwestern Monsoon (Road to Crisis) April - Sept 2000: Rainy SeasonApril - Sept 2000: Rainy Season – MASSIVE FLOODING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA ›WIDESPREAD WATER CONTAMINATION ›40% CROP FAILURE ›DISEASE (CHOLERA, MALARIA, DENGUE) – DISASTER VICTIMS ›150,000 HOMELESS ›FOOD / WATER CONTAMINATION – DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE ›ROADS, BRIDGES, RAIL ›COMMUNICATIONS Damage Exceeds USD 2 BillionDamage Exceeds USD 2 Billion HALOA FLOODING

3. Typhoon Guana (Road to Crisis) Strikes 13 Oct 2000Strikes 13 Oct 2000 – Nakhon Si Thammarat ›15,000 HOMES DESTROYED ›WATER / FOOD CONTAMINATION – OIL SPILL - 10,000 TONS ›DAMAGES FISHING ›DAMAGES 20KM OF COASTLINE Damage Exceeds USD 1.5 BillionDamage Exceeds USD 1.5 Billion GUANA TANKER WRECK

4. Northeastern Dry Winds (Current Crisis Situation) Dec 00 - Mar 01: Exceptionally Harsh Dry SeasonDec 00 - Mar 01: Exceptionally Harsh Dry Season – DROUGHT FOLLOWS FLOODING ›CONTAMINATED STANDING WATER ›UNABLE TO GENERATE FOOD ›STILL SUFFERING FROM LOSS OF LAST YEARS CROP ›DISEASE (CHOLERA, CONJUNCTIVITIS) – INCREASES DISASTER VICTIMS’ PROBLEMS IN THAILAND ›FOOD / WATER CRIMES ›ENVIRONMENT FOR OUTBREAK AND SPREAD OF DISEASE Projected Damage From Drought: USD 2 BillionProjected Damage From Drought: USD 2 Billion – FOOD SHORTAGE, DISEASE, LOST TOURISM HALOA THAILAND DROUGHT

5. Displaced Person / Disease (Current Crisis Situation) HALOAN DISPLACED PERSONS ENTER THAILANDHALOAN DISPLACED PERSONS ENTER THAILAND – DROUGHT IS ROUGHEST IN HALOA ›HALOA UNDERDEVELOPED  POOR DISTRIBUTION  DRY LAND FIRES INHIBIT AERIAL RELIEF ›BANDITS / LOCAL OFFICIALS  HOARDING FOOD  RAIDING RELIEF CONVOYS – 500,000 ENTER THAILAND IN 2-MONTHS OUTBREAK OF WATERBORNEOUTBREAK OF WATERBORNE DISEASE AND STDs DISEASE AND STDs (Allows for screening/quarantine) (Allows for screening/quarantine) – CHOLERA – JAPANESE ENCEPHALITIS – MALARIA DISPLACED PERSON FLOW DISPLACED PERSONS CAMPS

6. Earthquake (Current Crisis Situation) THAI-HALOAN BORDER 10 FEB 2001THAI-HALOAN BORDER 10 FEB 2001 – STRIKES PRIMARILY IN RURAL HALOA ›BREAKS IRRIGATION DAMS - DEPLETES / CONTAMINATES WATER ›DAMAGES BORDER BRIDGES – DESTROYS CHIANG MAI HOTEL ›KILLS 75, SCARES TOURISTS – DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE ›ROCKSLIDES DAMAGE ANTENNAS, ROADS IMPACT: 535 DEAD, USD 700 MILLIONIMPACT: 535 DEAD, USD 700 MILLION – PROJECTION: TOURISM TO DROP 20% EARTHQUAKE STRIKE ZONE HALOA THAILAND