2. CORPORATE BUTTERFLY EFFECT: how to manage interdependencies and “contingent business interruption” Maurizio Castelli

3. Learning Objectives At the end of this session, you will: Understand interdependencies and Contingent Business Interruption risks Understand latest issues facing multinationals in handling CBI risks Learn state of the art solutions in terms of insurance, risk engineering and claims management to address CBI.

4. INTRODUCTION RIC004

5. Page 5 The Butterfly Effect The butterfly effect is a term used in the chaos theory to describe how small changes to a seemingly unrelated condition can affect complex systems. The term comes from the suggestion that the flapping of a butterfly's wings in South America could affect the weather in Texas, meaning that the tiniest influence on one part of a system can have a huge effect on another part. The concept of the butterfly effect is attributed to Edward Norton Lorenz, a mathematician and meteorologist, who was one of the first proponents of the chaos theory. Lorenz was running global climate models on his computer one day and, hoping to save himself some time, ran one model from the middle rather than the beginning. The two weather predictions, one based on the entire process, including initial conditions, and another based on a portion of the data, starting with the process already part way completed, diverged drastically; contrary to Lorenz’s expectations, tiny, unpredictable variations caused the two models to differ.

6. Page 6 Corporate Butterfly Effect A small change to a seemingly “insignificant” part of the supply chain can heavily affect the results of the company, i.e. …

7. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 …. i.e. in the global context, companies have to manage their supply chain risk on the different fronts of their suppliers (including utilities), their clients, and their internal interdependencies. Each of these fronts can be affected by several factors and any interruption caused by any of these factors in any point of the chain can result in a severe negative impact on the results of the company. 7 Corporate Butterfly Effect (cont’d)

8. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 8 Corporate Butterfly Effect

9. CORPORATE BUTTERFLY EFFECT: The Insurance Support: Underwriting and claims management

10. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 Business Interruption A changing perspective The evolution of several parameters in the global landscape affects the perception of risks by insurance markets Risk accumulation control as a key driver in Property insurance underwriting. Risk accumulation affected by the business Interruption component as much or more than the direct property damages component. BI component results from loss of revenues on the affected unit but also from interdependencies and impact coming from suppliers and clients. The increasingly tight connection within the supply chain of an insured company led to a completely different perspective in calculating BI exposures his also leads to the need of a much deeper and clear analysis and understanding of the relationship with suppliers and clients, external and internal. 10

11. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 http://jedi-tempel.eu/38.html 11 www.tiptoptens.com Business Interruption - CBI Wake up calls Sept. 2001 9/11 August 2005 Katrina August 2002 Central European floods March 2011 Tohoku EQ and Tsunami July 2011 Thailand floods Oct-Nov 2012 Sandy

12. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 Why BI exposure is increasing ”Contingent BI“: business interruption damages incurred as a consequence of property damages suffered by direct suppliers or customers of the insured, leading to a shortening of supply or demand which results on an impact on its revenues. Contingent BI damages are increasing because of significant cost saving measures widely implemented: “Just in Time” (or even “Just in Sequence”) inventory strategies Reduction of stock capacities Single source supplier agreement (and “no second molds”) High level of specialization Sourcing from low cost countries Outsourcing production to third parties 12

13. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 13 Earthquake Japan 2011: main features EQ Tsunami Radiation Supply chain CBI

14. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 EQ limit Flood limit Radiation exclusion Concurrent causation Upstream / downstream Full supply chain Tier one only/ Tier two Named supplier Deductible language Make up in other areas of the globe 14 Earthquake Japan 2011 : coverage issues/lessons learnt

15. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 Flood Thailand 2011 15

16. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 16 Area damage CBI Salvage Flood Thailand 2011: main features

17. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 17 Flood Thailand 2011

18. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 Flood limit High Hazard Zone / Flood Zone A Concurrent causation Denial of access Upstream / downstream Full supply chain Tier one only/ Tier two Named supplier Deductible language Make up in other areas of the globe Suppliers and Customers located in the same Industrial region 18 Flood Thailand 2011: coverage issues/lessons learnt

19. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 Hurricane Sandy 2012: main features 19 Saltwater Power outage Access Humidity

20. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 General lessons learned from claims management Implementation of supply chain teams Reduction of quality standards (temporary) Move away from single source supplier Learn more about high hazard zones of customer/supplier Normal mitigation like in all other BI claims helped -Business Continuity Plans -Move production to other areas -Overtime Review policy limits Full supply chain coverage/named supplier Risk Engineering support

21. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 Corporate butterfly effect Dependency on: Utilities Group Interdependencies Critical suppliers Outsourced productions Critical clients Disruption of logistic chain Infrastructures (access to facilities) 21

22. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 Support the client, along with the broker in: Risk Identification; making sure that dependencies and foreseeable scenarios have been considered and that time element has been factored in properly Risk assessment: calculate loss scenarios and the corresponding exposure level Risk Mapping: compare calculated exposures with the insured’s risk appetite and identify suitable level for indemnity limits and deductibles Identify “named CBI“ versus “un-named CBI“ risks Based on above analysis understand the coverage needs and design a suitable coverage package Calculate account risk and portfolio impact (accumulation) to come to an assessment of overall exposure Define the adequate premium and T&C Implement and handle a suitable global program including all local legal and tax compliance needs Ensure proper handling of losses when these will happen 22 Corporate butterfly effect: the role of the insurer

23. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 The more the submission is clear, complete and detailed, the more the insurer is able to offer a satisfactory solution in terms of premium level, deductibles, limits, wideness of coverage, wording. In particular, for Cat Nat exposures, Today we have the availability of very accurate tools (in terms of calculation of probability and magnitude of foreseeable events) to calculate the “Nat-Cat” exposure including accumulation. However results can vary significantly even following minimal variation in the address of the location being analyzed. If the information about the risk locations is not accurate, the insurer has to use worst case scenarios data in his assessment of the risk and this is not to the advantage of the insured. 23 Corporate butterfly effect: the importance of data quality

24. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 Time element Business Interruption Contingent Business Interruption Contingent Business Interruption Named CBI Unnamed CBI Denail of access Service Interruption Extra Expenses Interdependency  «Traditional» Business Interruption coverage: Loss of Profit Extra expenses  “Enhanced” coverage: Group Interdependency  Special CBI coverage subject to specific sub-limits: Named and Unnamed CBI Denial of Access Service Interruption Additional special coverages: Loss of rent Loss of licenses Loss of interest Penalties 24 Corporate butterfly effect: insurance coverage

25. © 2011, XL Group plc companies. All rights reserved. I MAKE YOUR WORLD GO Yellow R= 255 G= 255 B= 0 Orange R= 244 G= 121 B= 32 Magenta R= 236 G= 0 B= 14- Red R= 237 G= 28 B= 36 Lt Green R= 141 G= 198 B= 63 Green R= 57 G= 181 B= 74 Cyan R= 0 G= 174 B= 239 Dk Blue R= 45 G= 49 B= 146 Yellow 2 R= 213 G= 206 B= 146 Orange 2 R= 203 G= 125 B= 101 Mag 2 R= 182 G= 114 B= 146 Red 2 R= 239 G= 63 B= 107 LG2 R= 156 G= 162 B=63 Green 2 R= 0 G= 137 B= 143 Cyan 2 R= 0 G= 182 B= 190 DB2 R= 0 G= 65 B= 89 Risk Engineering: Property Damage Loss prevention Supply Chain Loss prevention Business Impact Analysis and BI Loss Prevention Crisis Management Business Continuity Plans Underwriting and insurance solutions Risk Assessment and design of effective insurance solution BI and CBI capacity and comprehensive coverage Global Insurance Programs capabilities and know-how Suitable platforms for effective handling of complex global programs Claims Handling Professional claims handling team available around the clock and around the globe (specific experience and know-how in cross-border claims handling) Specific experience in handling complex BI and CBI claim Close cooperation of claims people with Risk Engineering and Underwriting Corporate butterfly effect: an integrated approach

26. Thank You !