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2 nd Regional Coordinating Agencies meeting May 27-29, 2015 Washington, DC Session I Post-2011 activities at the global level and outcomes of the UNSC session on the ICP evaluation
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Post-2011 activities at the global level… Explore new frontiers and applications of PPPs Keep the momentum from ICP 2011 and support partners Advance the future of the ICP by supporting the evaluation Increase transparency through knowledge products Promote the uses of PPP data for policy-making and research
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The Commission: Appreciated the FOC report’s initial findings affirming increased country participation, improvements in PPP methodology, increased transparency, streamlined quality assessment processes, and improved outreach to increase the uses of PPPs Emphasized that ICP should be permanent and more frequent Will await the complete set of recommendations in the final FOC report in March 2016 In the interim, urged countries and regional coordinating agencies to sustain the capacity built during the 2011 round and encouraged the Bank to support regional partners to ensure the continuity of ICP activities Update on the ICP evaluation… UNSC session on the ICP 2011 evaluation Meeting of the ICP Friends of the Chair (FOC) Group The ICP FOC group met to discuss the conclusions from the UNSC session on the ICP evaluation and the preparation of the ICP FOC final evaluation report The evaluation will finish end 2015, for UNSC discussion at its 47 th session in 2016 The report will present a view to transform the ICP exercise into a revolving and more frequent exercise that takes into account users’ needs and national statistical capacity
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Homi Kharas (Brookings Institution): “PPP data has to be current” Aleem Walji (World Bank): “Can’t imagine CEOs making decisions based on old data like ICP… Can we move to current and not perfect?” Angus Deaton (Princeton): “As far as the future is concerned, it would also be extremely desirable to put the program on a continuous basis, with results updated from year to year, which should avoid the large revisions that characterized the last two rounds.” Convergence in points of view… United Nations Statistical Commission: “stressed that ICP should become a permanent element of the global statistical programme with ICP rounds be held on a more frequent basis.” T.C.A. Anant (India): “The ICP has emerged as a very important global statistical product... The existing frequency is not adequate.” Data users are saying… Data producers are saying…
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Official statistics (prices, expenditures and price deflators) Private sector data Annual PPP time series PPPs for Poverty (SDGs and Bank’s twin goals) Improving the timeliness and frequency of PPPs… Frequent, timely and relevant PPPs
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Regional agenciesWorld Bank and IMFPrivate sectorTechnical advisors and experts (mini-TAG) Capitalize on existing partnerships and build new ones Strengthening partnerships…
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Relying on official statistics… Supporting regional updates Technical support: ‒Update and simplify Global Core List specifications and survey material to support regional update exercises ‒Provide technical assistance, upon request Financial support: ‒Grants to regional coordinating agencies Collecting data to extrapolate for “non-update” years National accounts expenditures Price indexes and deflators 7 ICP 2011 2012201320142015 update 20162017ICP 2018?
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Exploring new frontiers… Pilot with PREMISE Collaboration with STATISTICS NETHERLANDS Capturing granular high-frequency price data using modern technology combined with human intelligence on the ground The pilot is being conducted in three countries: Brazil, Indonesia and Nigeria for a basket of approximately 150 household consumption items with a survey coverage that includes urban / suburban / rural areas Using scanner data and internet robots (web scraping) as alternative, faster and less costly methods for price data collection Assess the feasibility for use in lower capacity statistical offices and countries of different levels of technological development Possible project/grant researching innovations in data collection and PPP production Cost-efficient and timely Vast item coverage Extensive and granular geographical coverage Comparable across countries Open to users Researching new ways to collect price data that is:
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PPP applications… Improving PPP Time Series The World Development Indicators extrapolates PPPs at high level only (GDP and Household Consumption) Testing extrapolation approach at lower levels of the ICP classification Great initiative by UN-ESCWA to extrapolate 2011 results to 2012/13. Can it be replicated in other regions? Research project/grant on PPP time series Poverty PPPs To inform the Bank’s twin goals, Bank’s Chief Economist established a Working Group on Incorporating the 2011 PPPs into Global Poverty Measurement (April 1, 2015) Bank’s Chief Economist council of eminent people discussed Global Poverty Measures and PPPs (April 19, 2015) Research project/grant on poverty specific PPPs
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Promoting the uses of ICP…. Outreach plan and calendar Conferences and seminars Knowledge products Video tutorials Papers Blogs Quarterly Updates
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Global Poverty Monitoring and the 2011 ICP PPP Indices workshop; Washington, DC; January 20, 2015 Center for Global Development’s ‘Research in Progress’ seminar; Washington, DC; March 11, 2015 Hands-on Poverty Measurement Training: PPPs; Washington, DC; April 22, 2015 International Comparison of Income, Prices and Production conference; Prague, Czech Republic; May 22-23, 2015 AfDB’s sub-national and poverty specific PPPs; Pretoria, South Africa; May 2015 Conferences and seminars in 2015….
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New Estimates of Global Poverty and Inequality: How Much Difference Do Price Data Really Make? Peter Edward, Andy Sumner, Center for Global Development You are what (and where) you eat: capturing food away from home in welfare measures, Gabriela Farfan, Maria Eugenia Genoni, Renos Vakis, The World Bank Global poverty goals and prices: how purchasing power parity matters, Dean Jolliffe, Espen Beer Prydz, The World Bank Real Capital Input in OECD Agriculture: A Multilateral Comparison, 'V. Eldon Ball, Jean-Pierre Butault, Richard Nehring, Carlos San Juan Mesonada, University Carlos III Uses, media and blogs in 2015… MDG 1: Uneven progress in reducing extreme poverty, hunger and malnutrition, Juan Feng, World Bank Blogs Global Poverty Monitoring and the New PPPs: A Note from Kaushik Basu, World Bank Blogs One chart showing all the world's countries ranked by how big and rich they are, Mike Bird, Business Insider Australia Who's Rich, Who's Big GDP per capita & Share of Global Population, Ian Bremmer, Twitter Visualising the world economy and population in one chart, World Economic Forum, Twitter Can you visualize the structure of the world economy and population in one chart? Morgan Brannon, Marko Rissanen, Mizuki Yamanaka, World Bank Blogs Indian Economy May Outpace US by 2050: Report, NDTV Profit Rising Food Prices in Poor Countries: A New Clue to Those Puzzling PPP Revisions, Martin Ravallion and Shaohua Chen, Center for Global Development STATSA to Africa Union 2015, the African Development Bank and Statistics South Africa, Youtube The State of Global Poverty, Kaushik Basu, Project-syndicate Uses of 2011 results Media and Blog Coverage
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Increasing transparency and knowledge… 13 Now fully edited on the ICP website Undergoing formal publication process, due August 2015 Visualizing World Economy and Population in One Chart (ICP video) exceeded 10,000 views The most viewed bank multimedia in the World Bank social media Q3 FY15 report Planning to publish more videos/multimedia ICP 2011 Operational Guide Preparing a comprehensive course that utilizes the knowledge gained from ICP 2011 to provide training materials for both producers and users of PPPs who wish to enhance their knowledge of PPPs Will cover broad topics related to PPPs, including concepts, data requirements, methodology, calculations, and the uses of PPPs E-learning course on PPPs Video tutorials
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Organization of the meeting… Session IV. Expenditures and price deflators Session III. Global Core List survey materials for regional PPP updates Session II. Maximizing synergies in regional and global post-2011 activities Session VI. PPP applications Session V. Discussions on the future Session VII. Way forward
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