1. Alberta's Economic Outlook Catherine Rothrock A/Chief Economist November 6, 2015

2. Oil price forecast downgraded 2 WTI Oil Price Source: Alberta Energy

3. Implications of lower oil prices to producers 3 Lower revenues Lower Cost Pressures -Condensate -Royalties/taxes -Labour -Fuel -Construction prices Weaker CDN$

4. Lower oil prices hit the economy 4 Real GDP Growth Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

5. Loonie has tumbled, cushioning oil price impact 5 Canadian Dollar exchange rate Sources: Bank of Canada and Haver Analytics

6. Rig activity down over 50% 6 Number of Alberta active rigs drilling Source: Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors (CAODC)

7. Investment to improve slowly 7 Change in Alberta Public and Private Non-Residential Investment Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

8. Oil production growing despite price drop 8 Alberta Oil Production and Western Canadian Select Heavy Oil Benchmark Price Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Energy

9. Firms seeking ways to cut costs 9 Alberta Construction prices and Average Weekly Earnings Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

10. Manufacturing exports to pick up after short-term decline 10 Change in Alberta Real Manufacturing Exports Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

11. Crop production down in 2015 11 Alberta Crop Production Source: Statistics Canada

12. Transportation investment surges as production ramps up 12 Transportation & warehousing investment, share of Canadian investment Source: Statistics Canada *2015 is investment intentions

13. Labour market lags oil prices 13 Alberta employment growth and WTI price Sources: Statistics Canada and Energy Information Administration

14. Unemployment rises amid falling job vacancies 14 Alberta unemployment rate and job vacancy indicators* Source: Statistics Canada *3-month moving average

15. Labour market conditions in Alberta soften 15 Labour Market Indicators Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

16. People still coming in early 2015 16 Net Population Movement for Alberta (April 1 to June 30, 2015) Source: Statistics Canada

17. Natural increases and immigration to drive population gains 17 Alberta Population Growth by Component Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

18. Albertans reign in vehicle spending 18 Alberta retail sales growth Source: Statistics Canada

19. Consumers keep spending, but at a much slower rate 19 Change in Alberta Nominal Household Consumption and Income Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

20. Record migration has spurred demand for new housing 20 Housing Starts and Total Net-Migration Into Alberta Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

21. Edmonton's market has held up relatively well 21 Alberta existing home sales indexed to October 2014 Source: Canadian Real Estate Association

22. Long-standing economic prosperity 22 Annual nominal GDP per capita Sources: Statistics Canada, Alberta Treasury Board and Finance and TD Economics

23. Economic Synopsis Oil prices down over 50% since June 2014. Contraction in 2015, with economy progressively picking up over the medium term. Construction catching up this year. Opportunities exist in a lower cost environment. 23

24. Annual and Quarterly Economic Outlook Publications http://www.finance.alberta.ca/aboutalberta/economic_outlook.html

25. Our Weekly and Monthly Economics Publications http://www.finance.alberta.ca/aboutalberta/economic_outlook.html

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