1. Norton, 2008 E. Randall Norton, Ph.D. The University of Arizona Safford Agricultural Center

2. Norton, 2008 Western US Cotton Production

3. Norton, 2008 Year in Review 2007 season generally characterized by: Lower production costs (lower pest pressures) Optimum growing conditions Lower levels of severe heat stress (AZ) Warm open fall conditions Generally good yield (higher than average) No major concerns with fiber quality

4. Norton, 2008 Pest Pressures - 2007 Arizona/New Mexico AZ - 2006: lowest foliar insecticide use in 28 yrs AZ - 2007: possibly new record low Light whiteflies, very light Lygus Crop diversity changing Increase in alfalfa acreage Increase in ethanol interest corn, sorghum, milo California Very few pest pressures – generally light (lygus, aphid, whitefly) Reported increases in Bollworm populations due to increased corn acreage

5. Norton, 2008 Year in Review AZ Upland – 178,000 acres – 1479 lbs/acre Pima – 3,000 acres – 880 lbs/acre CA Acala/Upland – 169,000 acres – 1410 lbs/acre Pima – 260,000 acres – 1345 lbs/acre NM Upland – 44,000 acres – 1124 lbs/acre Pima – 5,000 acres – 1056 lbs/acre

6. Norton, 2008 Upland/Acala Percent of 2006Percent of 6 Year Mean AZ Yield (lb/ac) 101108 Acreage (thous) 9576 CA Yield (lb/ac) 107103 Acreage (thous) 6032 NM Yield (lb/ac) 121128 Acreage (thous) 9280

7. Norton, 2008 Pima/ELS Percent of 2006Percent of 6 Year Mean AZ Yield (lb/ac) 9699 Acreage (thous) 4357 CA Yield (lb/ac) 112106 Acreage (thous) 95125 NM Yield (lb/ac) 138120 Acreage (thous) 4062

8. Norton, 2008 2008 Challenges and Opportunities Concerns over increased production costs Fertilizer costs (energy costs/competing crops) $10-15/cwt grain in AZ Water supplies/costs General drought conditions Competition with urban growth Environmental issues (CA) Concerns over labor issues Availability/Cost AZ Worker Verification Program (effective 2008) New harvest technology

9. Norton, 2008 Fertilizer Prices

10. Norton, 2008 Drought Conditions in the West

11. Norton, 2008 Water Issues in the West Other mitigating factors CA – Delta Smelt protection issues Affects water supplies in the Western San Joaquim Valley where the majority of remaining cotton is grown AZ – Drought conditions and competition for resources (water) from urban development

12. Norton, 2008 Near Maricopa, AZ - Late 90’s

13. Norton, 2008 Already Developed Near Maricopa, AZ - Present

14. Norton, 2008 Projections for 2008 Acreage in West will continue to decline CA – estimates down from as little as 25,000 to 100,000 acres Largely dependent on water supplies Increase in ELS acres – shift from Acala Some new Pima transgenics will be available in 2008 AZ/NM – will likely decrease Competition from other crops Small grain contracts Corn silage and other forages for dairy industry Water issues (AZ)