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Published byAlexina Lawson Modified over 8 years ago
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Impact of globalization Convertibility with open or closed borders Fixed rate of exchange Floating rate of exchange Managed rate of exchange Practical means of forecasting foreign exchange rates Introduction
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Speculative trading Balance of payments position and trends Inflation rate compared to trading partners Investor confidence in economics, politics and business Intervention in the foreign exchange market Market Drivers
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Transaction exposure Translation exposure Economic exposure Measuring Foreign Exchange Exposure
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Accounts Payable and Accounts receivable in a foreign currency Wide array Balance sheet hedging Assets: Plant and equipment, market share, investments, etc. Liabilities: Loans, bonds, etc. Acquisition activity Business Needs for Foreign Currency
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The Currency Market a Continuous Market
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An exchange of one currency for another currency Dollars (USD) for Japanese Yen (JPY) Indirect Quote Currency rate 110.00 1 USD = 110.00 JPY Direct Quote Currency rate.009091 1 JPY =.009091 USD FX Trading
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Spot - buy now, pay now Forwards - buy now, pay later ( up to 1 year) NDF (non-deliverable forwards) Swaps Options Alternatives Instruments used to offset risk
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Purchase or sale of one currency for another Delivery taking place on a specific future date or within a specific window of time Unlike futures traded over-the-counter Any convertible currency Any maturity (typically less than a year) Any amount (typically with a $50,000 min) Forward Contracts
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Price is based on: Current spot rate plus or minus a discount or premium for interest rate differentials Example: One year forward sale of Japanese Yen: Spot rate 117 Yen per US$ Interest rate differential 4.70% US interest rates (1 yr.) 4.80% Japanese interest rates (1 yr.) 0.10% 1 Year Forward: 117 - (117*4.70%=5.50) = 111.50 Forward Contracts Example
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The right but not the obligation to convert one currency for another on a specific future date. Difference between European and American Style is OTC and Exchange Traded (flexibility) Any convertible currency Any strike price (typically +-5% of spot) Any maturity (typically below 1 year) Amount typically is a large amount Options
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Price is based on: current spot price strike price volatility factor The right to buy Japanese Yen at a specific rate one year out in the future. If the Yen weakens a conversion will be made in the open market Options Example
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Forward Contract Eliminates up and downside potential Good tool when company has firm commitments in the future Mark-to-market offset against A/R or A/P No initial cost 10% risk assessment Option Eliminates “downside” but leaves “upside” Good tool for company involved in projects with uncertainty “Naked hedge” for commitments not yet recognized on the balance sheet 1-5% premium up front a tough sale Options vs. Forwards
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Settlement Participation Technique Datein Price Movement HIGH SpotPresent100% OptionsFuture DateParticipating in certain or positive price RISKmovements with adverse price movements defined ForwardFuture date certainNone LOWWindowPeriod certainNone specific date uncertain Foreign Exchange Spectrum of Choice
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The Australian Dollar
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The Euro
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The Japanese Yen
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Japan (interest rates)
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China
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