1. The statistics of skilling for growth: what’s driving apprenticeship commencements and completions? 2016 Group Training Australia National Conference Dr Craig Fowler, Managing Director, NCVER

2.  About NCVER  Brief economic context  The numbers, trends and issues  Contribution of Group Training Organisations  The observations and learnings  Briefly views from overseas  Conclusions

3.  Not-for-profit company owned by the Commonwealth, state and territory ministers responsible for VET  Independent body - collecting, managing, analysing, evaluating and communicating research and statistics about VET nationally About us

4. Source: NAB Group Economics, NAB Monthly Business Survey, February 2016

5. Internet Vacancies Index Note:Trend indexed to January 2006 Source: Department of Employment, Vacancy Report (January 2016)

6.  Provides data on all persons employed under a training contract and includes both apprentices and trainees.  An annual publication provides a summary of training activity in apprenticeships and traineeships in Australia  Information on completion and attrition rates for apprentices and trainees is also available.  Quarterly publication presents estimates of activity for apprentices and trainees in Australia and early trend estimates for the quarter Apprentices and trainees collection

7. NCVER relies on data quarterly from STAs Cumulative data amended each Qtr (up to 7 Qtrs) Latest Qtrs inform ‘national early trend estimates’ ‘In training’ data is at a ‘date specific point in time’ ‘Commencements’, ‘completions’, ‘cancellations’ are ‘cumulative’ data of a slice of time’ eg Qtr or Year Apprentices (Trade) are ANSCO Cat 3 Trainees (Non Trade) are all other ANSCO 1,2, 4-8. To help understanding

8. Commencements (12 months to 30 June) Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates Note: Apprentices commencements for the year to 30 June.

9. Commencements as proportion of respective labour force Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, November 2015, cat. 6291.0.55.003; National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates Note: Employed persons as at May. Commencements for the year to 30 June.

10. Numbers of apprentices in-training Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, September 2015 estimates Note: Apprentices in-training as at 30 June. 2006200720082009201020112012201320142015 Trade182,881195,290209,300203,172210,136214,047216,437210,131195,121187,732 Non-trade221,357218,601224,527220,669226,735245,184300,050196,062154,738121,390 Total404,238413,891433,827423,841436,871459,231516,487406,193349,859309,122

11. In-training (as at 30 June each year) Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates Note: Apprentices in-training as at 30 June.

12. Apprenticeship status by provider type - 2014 Source: Total VET students and courses, TVA program enrolments 2014

13. In-training and unemployment rate, 1996-2015 Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, January 2016, cat. 6202.0, trend estimates; National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates Note: Unemployment rate as at June. Apprentices and trainees in-training as at 30 June.

14. Completions (year to 30 June) Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates Note: Apprentices completions for the year to 30 June.

15. Cancellations/withdrawals (year to 30 June) Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates Note: Apprentices cancellations/withdrawals for the year to 30 June.

16. Trade commencements, in-training & completions ‘steady-ish’ over decade, but some indication more recent decline Non-Trade commencements, in-training & completions higher numbers across decade, but steep decline since 2012 – coincident with incentive adjustments Trade + non Trade commencements/completions lower now than 10 years ago (due to large non Trade declines) As proportion of total ‘national labour’ force Trade + non Trade shows a decline from 3.9% to 2.7% Summary points

17. Numbers of group training apprentices in-training Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates Note: Apprentices in-training as at 30 June. 2006200720082009201020112012201320142015 Trade29,00930,56931,65327,59126,70726,16624,49722,64520,49619,519 Non-trade11,35911,01010,4199,1159,6199,7839,7648,0107,6126,629 Total40,36841,57942,07236,70636,32635,94934,26130,65528,10826,148

18. Numbers of group training apprentices in-training Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates. Note: Apprentices in-training as at 30 June.

19. Proportion of commencements by those 19 years and under, 1997-2015 Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates Note: Commencements for the year to 30 June. Only commencements which were not existing workers.

20. School-based apprenticeships School-based commencements, 1999-2015 Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates Note: Commencements for the year to 30 June.

21. Proportion of trade apprentice commencements certificate IV level and above, 1997-2015 Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates Note: Commencements for the year to 30 June. Only commencements which were not existing workers.

22. Numbers of group training apprentice completions Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates Note: Completions for the year to 30 June. Only includes not existing workers.

23. Up to three years duration - Proportion of trade completions Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, June 2015 estimates Note: Commencements for the year to 30 June. Only commencements which were not existing workers.

24. Completion rates for contracts commencing from 2008 Source: National Apprentice and Trainee Collection, December 2015 estimates, unpublished Note: Contract completion rates between 2011 and 2013 are only ‘to date’ and are subject to change.

25. Group Training Organisations in general: Sustained its national share of commencements and completions over long period - but evident slipping Manage different cohort with support of younger apprentices (including school-based) Trends to longer duration (trades) but get result as.. Completion rates marginally better over long term – but gap closing? Example of good practice in eg electro-technology and engineering/ICT/science have lower attrition rates Summary points – GTO’s vs Others

26. When do apprentices leave?

27. Main reason for not completing - 2010 Main reason for not completingPercentage (%) Trade Apprentices in parenthesis Doing something different/better 35 (20) Didn’t like boss or colleagues/poor working conditions 8 (13) Didn’t like type of work/industry, or transferred to another apprenticeship/traineeship 10 (14) Wasn’t happy with training or study 4 (5) Lost job or made redundant 19 (27) Personal reasons 18 (16) Other reasons 6 (5) Source: Australian Vocational Education and Training Statistics: Apprentice and trainee destinations, 2010, NCVER, Adelaide.

28. Employer’s typical costs for electrical/plumbing apprentice $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Materials wastage Administration costs Other costs (travel) Supervision costs Apprentice wages and training fees minus incentives Source: NCVER Nechvoglod, Karmel and Saunders 2009

29. Are apprentices satisfied?  There is a large difference in completers’ and ‘non-completers’ satisfaction with their employment experience overall.  The majority of completers (80%) are satisfied with the employment experience overall, compared with just 42% of non-completers. Supports evidence that the employment experience, in general, rather than the off-the-job-training experience, carries greater weight in whether an apprentice stays or goes. Source: Bednarz, 2014, Understanding the non-completion of Apprentices, Adelaide, NCVER

30. Retention strategies Companies with completion rates of 80%+ generally have:  Someone taking responsibility for human resources matters and rigorous recruitment practices  Well-organised, formal systems for managing apprentices  Generous wages and other benefits  Mentoring and support mechanisms Easier to provide if the employer is a large, well-established company than if the employer is a small, start-up company – hence the role GTOs can play in support small and micro Cos.

31. Research using LSAY has found the answer yes as contributing with other factors –More apprentices are coming from the bottom two quintiles in maths and reading achievement. –The growth in apprenticeships has come from those with lower socio-economic status backgrounds –The growth in higher education which has been in individuals with middle to higher socio-economic backgrounds. Has university participation impacted? Source: Karmel, Roberts & Lim 2014

32. Government incentive payments: some first impressions Source: NCVER A&T Collection. Moving averages. Australian apprenticeship enrolments 2000 - 2014 (quarterly) Changes to incentive schemes Withdrawal of some incentives

33. Government incentive payments: some first impressions Introduction of commencement bonus Source: BIBB Data Report 2014 Withdrawal of bonus

34. NCVER Opinion Feb. 2016 What the National Innovation and Science Agenda (NISA) Didn’t Say About Skills and Jobs NCVER Insight Nov. 2015 Learning on the job: Alternative Views From Afar National and International Perspectives Sources: Graduate Careers Australia – Gradstats, December 2015 NCVER’s National Student Outcomes Survey, 2015

35. Await findings of Apprenticeship Reform Advisory Group 84% of people who finished an apprenticeship in 2014 were employed 6 months after training – 63% full-time 81% full-time employed for trades 49% full-time for non-trades In contrast, 42% of bachelor grads who received their award in 2014 were employed full-time 4 months after completing their course A note to end on Sources: Graduate Careers Australia – Gradstats, December 2015 NCVER’s National Student Outcomes Survey, 2015

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