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1 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. U.S. Cable Market Broadband and OTT Competition TEPAL26 June 29, 2016
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2 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. Broadband Profile in the U.S.
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3 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 3 Broadband Market Share – 2015 Cable added 3.3M broadband subscribers in 2015 Telcos lost 200K broadband subscribers in 2015
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4 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. Broadband Surpasses Video Subscribers In Q2 2014, the inflection point occurred where broadband subscribers surpassed pay tv subscribers for cable 52.0 2016E 59.5
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5 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 5 Broadband-Only Homes Increasing According to SNL Kagan's five-year projection, total households that subscribe to high-speed-data services but do not get traditional multichannel video are forecast to grow at a relatively sluggish 10.6% CAGR through 2020, reaching more than 21.9 million households, or 17.4% of projected U.S. occupied households
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6 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. Competitors and Competition
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7 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. America’s Gigabit Cities 7 http://gigcommunities.net/google-commemorates-five-years-google-fiber-gigabit-map/ “Today, there are more than 60 gigabit cities across the US,” wrote Google Fiber.
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8 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 2015 US FTTH Profile 26 Million (~20%) of all U.S. HH are passed by fiber 12.3 Million (~10%) of all HH are connected by Fiber – a 50% uptake rate Google Fiber had ~ 53,000 subscribers as of December 2015 That’s "5/100ths of 1 percent" of the U.S. pay-TV market (MoffettNathanson)
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9 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2015. All Rights Reserved. 9 Competition – Google and Telcos
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10 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. Google Fiber – Rollouts San Francisco is the 22nd metro where we're going to serve customers
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11 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. Google Fiber Gbps Broadband Service July 2015
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12 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. AT&T GigaPower 12 “AT&T GigaPower is available in 20 of the nation’s largest metros areas, and we’ve announced plans to expand our ultra-fast Internet service in parts of 36 additional metro areas – which will total at least 56 metros served.” AT&T, 04/16
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13 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 13 AT&T GigaPower
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14 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 14 Verizon FiOS http://fiberforall.org/fios-map/
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15 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. http://www.verizon.com/home/fios-fastest-internet/ Texas : Our Technology FTTP Architecture
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16 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2015. All Rights Reserved. 16 http://muninetworks.org/communitymap Competition – Municipalities
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17 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 17 Next – 10 Gbps Service?
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18 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. Cable’s Competitive Positioning
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19 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 19 Comcast Gigabit Pro and DOCSIS 3.1 2 Gbps symmetrical service – Gigabit Pro – launched in July 2015 “Last month, Comcast announced it had successfully installed its first DOCSIS 3.1 modem in Philadelphia, and one was installed in Atlanta a few days later. ” Comcast, Feb 2016 “Comcast will have two pricing tiers for their gigabit service. A promotional 36-month contract price of $70/month will be offered, as well as a no-contract every day price of $140/month”, March 2016
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20 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 20 Cox Communications Inc. has a more mainstream launch of 1 Gbps, expanding its FTTH deployments to 12 markets as of December 2015. SNL Kagan. “In order to deliver the 1 Gbps speeds, Cox will leverage a mix of GPON-based fiber to the premises (FTTP) technology and extend into the remaining area of the market using DOCSIS 3.1-enabled equipment when it becomes more widely available.” FierceTelecom Cox G1gablast Service
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21 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 21 Other MSO Gbps Deployments Suddenlink – Operation GigaSpeed Using DOCSIS 3.0 Broadband at speeds of up to 1 Gbps will be available in more than 250 Suddenlink networks by the end of 2016. That represents more than 60 percent of the company’s high-speed customers. In contrast to AT&T and Google Fiber’s selective gigabit deployments, Suddenlink is bringing gigabit Internet service to all neighborhoods and households passed by Suddenlink’s network. Mediacom – Columbia and Jefferson City, Missouri Atlantic Broadband – Miami, Florida Comporium – Rock Hill, South Carolina
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22 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. DOCSIS 3.0 can provide speeds approaching 1 Gbps (32 bonded channels) DOCSIS 3.1 Where FTTH-based competition exists, DOCSIS 3.1 capabilities can support offers comparable to 2.5/1.2 Gbps GPON 1 st generation DOCSIS 3.1 can provide up to ~ 4 Gbps of downstream capacity Second generation DOCSIS 3.1 will be able to take advantage of the full HFC spectrum, supporting up to 10 Gbps of capacity – this creates general parity with 10G PON downstream speeds Upstream bandwidth – mid-split or high-split Full Duplex DOCSIS 10 Gbps symmetrical service Node+0 network 22 Cable’s Multi-Gbps Technologies
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23 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. OTT Trends in the U.S. Video Market
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24 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 24 Is this OTT? http://www.mediaentertainmentinfo.com/2015/12/ott-wave-surges-ahead-in-2015-virtual-mvpds-are-here.html/
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25 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. Convenience –What, when and where the consumer chooses to view video content –Viewing “TV” on smart phones, tablets, gaming platforms & other connected devices – including smart TVs Cost –A la carte preference Changing viewer behaviors –More than Millennials –Ability to watch certain TV shows and whole seasons (binge viewing) –User generated content Why the Demand? 25
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26 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. Rise of OTT Services 26
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27 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. Proliferation of OTT Platforms 27 “.. the present process is similar to what the industry went through during the 1980s and 1990s, which saw the creation of hundreds of cable networks. The participants looking to enter this space consist of distributors, hardware makers, and existing content providers in addition to the existing pure OTT service providers like Netflix, Amazon and Hulu. “ U.S. Cable and Media Evolution of OTT, Equity Research, 21 April 2016
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28 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 28 Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu Dominate According to Parks Associates, there were 101 OTT video services available in the U.S. as of March 2016. Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu dominate & command 95% market share. Only 5% of U.S. broadband households subscribe to one or more of the other 98 options.
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29 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 29 Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu Dominate
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30 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 30 Netflix ~ 81.5 M Subscribers “Net additions in Q1 ‘16 amounted to a record 6.74 million, surpassing our prior high water mark of 5.59 million in Q4 ‘15 and against 4.88 million in the year ago period. Of our 81.5 million members, 42% are now outside of the US. Operating income was $49 million vs. $97 million in the year ago quarter, as we continue to invest in international markets. “
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31 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 31 Netflix
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32 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 32 Amazon has begun to reimagine the multichannel TV bundle “Consumer Intelligence Research Partners estimates that Amazon ended 2015 with 54 million U.S. members for its Prime service, up 35% from the prior year. Of those about 40% of U.S. Amazon Prime members (are estimated) to use the free streaming service at least once a week. That works out to 21.6 million Amazon Prime Video users.” “In December 2015, Amazon announced it was offering add-ons to Prime such as Showtime, Starz, TriBecA Shortlist, Lifetime Movie Club, among many others.” Amazon Video ~ 21.6 M Subscribers
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33 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. Cable Operator Strategies
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34 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. 34 “Skinny Bundles” March 21, 2016, DECIDER Website
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35 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. The Bundling Advantage for MSOs is Big 35 http://www.slideshare.net/ActivateInc/activate-tech-and-media-outlook-2016 A potential ‘cable killer’ cannot easily compete with cable’s bundling advantage, as users would still have to pay for broadband
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36 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved. Increased consumer awareness and uptake Increased consumer interest in new content distribution models –Importance of differentiating “cord” audiences; pay television is primarily a household product Skinny bundles and a la carte impact on content –Survival of the fittest? –Compounded by decreasing advertising spend for traditional pay television programming due to decline in viewership Investment in original content and impact on subscriber base What is “good enough”? What makes a “competitive” virtual MVPD? Seamless consumption So What are the Implications? 36
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37 © Cable Television Laboratories, Inc. 2016. All Rights Reserved.
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