1. Alternative INDC Zero Carbon Serbia: Plan for 100% renewable energy system in Serbia

2. Photo: Tanjug/ Tanja Valič

3. © Marko Somborac / Blic

4. Submitted Serbian INDC CO 2 e emissions (million tons) Sources: 1990 - Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, Initial National Communication of the Republic of Serbia under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2010 2013 - А. Јововић, Инвентар гасова са ефектом стаклене баште и пројекције емисија са мерама митигације, презентација на Радионица „Политика у области климатских промена – важност укључивања климатских промена у секторске и локалне/регионалне развојне циљеве“ Ниш, 29. мај 2015

6. https://twitter.com/MAC_europa/status/608925958960259072

7. One Degree Serbia Volunteer grassroot group est. 2013 3 concerned members: – agricultural engineer – physicist and publisher – aeronautical engineer CAN-E member since April 2015

8. Alternative INDC team 6 graduate and undergraduate students: – 5 x Geography – 1 x Agriculture Strong analytical skills GIS and Excel

12. INDC: Zero Carbon Serbia * Source: World Bank

13. Assumption 1 – Population * Population for 2014: Zavod za statistiku

14. Assumption 2 – GSP per capita * GDP 2014 data: World Bank GDP growth 2% per annum (WB projection for 2017)

15. Factors that determine emissions CO 2 emissions Consumed energy Total GDP Total population GDP per capita Energy intensity Emissions intensity 2 X

16. BAU – business as usual * Source for 2014 emissions: World Bank

17. Factors that determine emissions CO 2 emissions Consumed energy Total GDP Total population GDP per capita Energy intensity Emissions intensity 2 X

18. Energetski bilans Republike Srbije REPUBLIKA SRBIJA (bez podataka za KiM) fizičke jedinic e REALIZACIJA 2013.PROCENA 2014.PLAN ZA 2015. fizičke jedinice Mil ten fizičke jedinic e Mil ten fizičke jedinice Mil ten UKUPNA PRIMARNA ENERGIJA ZA POTROŠNjU ––14,908–14,626–16,206 Ugalj1000 t–7,901–7,091–8,617 Nafta1000 t32323,42933293,52733293,527 GasMil m³23441,86624301,93528732,287 Električna energijaGWh– 2537– 0.21820580.177– 529– 0.045 HidropotencijalGWh101940,87797880,84288520,761 Geotermalna energijaTJ1880,0061880,0041880,004 Biomasa1000 t–1,045–1,048–1,051 BiogasMil m³–0,002– –0,003 Solarna energijaGWh1,5010,0004,98950,0005,8560,001 Energija vetraGWh0.5470.0000.32520.0000.2710.000 ten – tona ekvivalentne nafte Izvor: Energetski bilansi Republike Srbije za 2015. godinu

19. Final energy consumption Sector(thousand toe) 20102015 (estimation) Residential3148.03193.1 Industry2393.02560.4 Civil construction7.07.9 Transport2239.02329.2 Agriculture175.0184.9 Other934.0979.9 Final energy consumption8896.09255.4 Source: Strategija razvoja energetike Republike Srbije za period do 2025. godine, sa projekcijama do 2030. godine toe – tons of oil equivalent

20. Factors that determine emissions CO 2 emissions Consumed energy Total GDP Total population GDP per capita Energy intensity Emissions intensity

21. Final energy consumption * Izvor: Strategija razvoja energetike Republike Srbije za period do 2025. godine, sa projekcijama do 2030. godine GDP per capita ↗ 2x

22. Factors that determine emissions CO 2 emissions Consumed energy Total GDP Total population GDP per capita Energy intensity Emissions intensity 2 X

23. Emissions reduction solutions Reduce energy intensity Reduce emissions intensity. Three pillars according to DDPP: 1.Energy efficiency; 2.Low carbon electricity; and 3.Fuel switching.

24. Rešenje zadatka (2) Korak 1: Da li možemo da obezbedimo 18,51mil. ten iz sledećih izvora: – Hidropotencijal – Geotermalna energija – Biomasa – Biogas – Solarna energija – Energija vetra? Ako ne, onda Korak 2: Smanjenje količine potrošene energije na količinu energije dostupne iz OIE – energetska efikasnost Ako ni to nije dovoljno – Korak 3 skladištenje ugljenika

25. How to reduce emissions to 0 or below? Total energy consumption (including fuel switching) Renewables Total energy consumption (including fuel switching) CSS Energy efficiency Step 1 Energy efficiency Step 2Step 3

26. Serbia goes 100% renewables Solar (rooftop and ground power plants) Wind Hydro (no new dams) Geothermal Biomass Biogas Assumptions: – Install as much renewables as it is physically possible – Available technology – No financial limits – Highest possible conservative estimations and costs

27. Small Solar Rooftop Power Plants Installation of solar PV system at the rooftop of every family house and every building in Serbia PVWatts® Calculator Building typeNumber Installation capacity (kW) Total installed capacity (GW) Annual generation (GWh) Annual generation (mtoe) Family houses2,186,000*613.11613703 Residential buildings9,556**150.14334150 Other buildings32,833**150.492495515 Total 13.8143671.24 (13%) * Source: Милица Јовановић Поповић, Душан Игњатовић, Ана Радивојевић, Александар Рајчић, Љиљана Ђукановић, Наташа Ђуковић Игњатовић, Милош Недић. Национална типологија стамбених зграда Србије, Архитектонски факултет – Универзитет у Београду и GIZ, 2013 ** New buildings from 1994 onwards: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

28. Big Solar Power Plants Installation of big PV solar power plants on degraded soil: – Open coal pits and dumps – Areas of closed and destroyed coal power plants (by 2050) – Other open mines and dumps, abandoned landfills First Solar on-line calculator

29. Big Solar Power Plants (continuation) Region Total installed capacity (GW) Annual generation (GWh) Annual generation (mtoe) Belgrade1.061,210 Vojvodina2.772,840 Šumadija and Western Serbia1.921,710 Eastern and Southern Serbia4,925,680 Kolubara lignite region3.723.724,520 Total14.3915,9601.37 (15%)

30. Costs: Solar Solar PV rooftopSolar PV power plants Average cost per object5100 USD / kW*4340 USD / kW* Total costs64 billion EUR57 billion EUR Costs per year (2020- 2050) 2.1 billion EUR1.9 billion EUR Yearly costs per capita (2020-2050) 304 EUR271 EUR Daily costs per capita (2020-2050) 0.83 EUR0.74 EUR * Source: IRENA, Renewable power generation costs IN 2014, 2015

31. Wind Installation of maximum number of 120 m high 2 MW wind turbines per km 2 in regions with average wind speed > 6.5 m/s Balkan Wind Atlas (KfW)

32. Wind – numbers Number od 2 MW wind turbines6,077 Total installed capacity (GW)12.154 Annual generation (GWh)36,993 Annual generation (mtoe)3.18 (34%)

33. Wind – costs Wind farms Average cost per 2 MW turbine2.4 million EUR Total costs14.586 billion EUR Costs per year (2020-2050)486.2 million EUR Yearly costs per capita (2020-2050)69.5 EUR Daily costs per capita (2020-2050)0.19 EUR

34. Geothermal No data or very old data (1980’s) Recommendation: Survey for new data Estimated costs: Not available

35. Biomass Poor methodology without results so far Data from the latest Energy Strategy 2025- 2030 Costs: not available

36. Biomass Area (ha)PlantBiomass (million tones) Energy (GJ)Energy (mtoe) Forest

37. Biogas from agriculture Number of biogas plants Average installation capacity (MW) Annual generation (GW) Energy (toe)

38. Biomass & biogas – costs BiomassBiogas Average cost per project Total costs Costs per year (2020- 2050) Yearly costs per capita (2020-2050) Daily costs per capita (2020-2050)

39. Biogas from waste management 6 biggest regional landfills LandfillWaste per year (t) CH 4 (kg)Energy (GJ)Energy (GWh) Energy (mtoe) Novi Sad132,9227,537,104269,80630 Sremska Mitrovica 107,4567,537,104269,80630 Beograd438,34615,074,208539,61160 Valjevo106,1017,537,104269,80630 Užice103,9467,537,104269,80630 Niš107,0097,537,104269,80630 TOTAL2100.018 (0.2%)

40. Costs: Biogas from waste management LandfillInstalled turbine (MW)Biogas power plant costs (million EUR)* Novi Sad3.44.8 Sremska Mitrovica3.44.8 Beograd6.89.6 Valjevo3.44.8 Užice3.44.8 Niš3.44.8 TOTAL2433.5 * Source: EPA, Landfill Gas Energy A Guide to Developing and Implementing Greenhouse Gas Reduction Programs, 2012

41. Total estimated potential TechnologyOur estimation (mtoe)Total available potential - offical data* (mtoe) Solar (rooftop + ground power plants)2.610.240 Wind3.180.103 Hydro0.909* (existing capacity)1.679 Geothermal0.180*0.180 Biomass**3.448*3.448 Biogas (waste)0.0180.205 Total potential (2050)10.345 Energy demand (2015)9.26 Estimated energy demand (2050)18.52 Difference potential – demand (2050)8.18 *Source: Strategija razvoja energetike Republike Srbije za period do 2025. godine, sa projekcijama do 2030. godine ** Without new energy crops

42. 100% renewable energy

43. Total installation costs TechnologyTotal costsCosts per year (2020- 2050) Yearly costs per capita (2020-2050) Daily costs per capita (2020-2050) Solar121 billion4 billion6001.64 Wind15 billion486 million700.19 Hydro0000 Geothermal---- Biomass---- Biogas0.0341 million0.160 Total1.83

44. Financial resources Coal costs: up to 5 billion EUR / year* of additional public health costs: – 680 EUR / year per capita Air pollution costs: 33% of GDP** Carbon tax: around 1.5 billion EUR / year*** Sources: * HEAL, The unpaid health bill: How coal power plants make us sick, 2013 ** World Health Organisation *** www.dobarpredak.comwww.dobarpredak.com