1. LIVING IN THE ENVIRONMENT 17 TH MILLER/SPOOLMAN Chapter 6 The Human Population and Its Impact

2. 6-1 How Many People Can the Earth Support? Concept 6-1 We do not know how long we can continue increasing the earth’s carrying capacity for humans without seriously degrading the life-support system that keeps us and many other species alive.

3. Core Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in China: A Success Story 1.3 billion people Promotes one-child families Contraception, abortion, sterilization Fast-growing economy Serious resource and environmental problems

4. Crowded Street in China Fig. 6-1, p. 125

5. Human Population Growth Continues but It Is Unevenly Distributed (1) Reasons for human population increase Movement into new habitats and climate zones Early and modern agriculture methods Control of infectious diseases through Sanitation systems Antibiotics Vaccines Health care Most population growth over last 100 years due to drop in death rates

6. Human Population Growth Continues but It Is Unevenly Distributed (2) Population growth in developing countries is increasing 9 times faster than developed countries 2050 95% of growth in developing countries 7.8-10.8 billion people Should the optimum sustainable population be based on cultural carrying capacity?

7. Human Population Growth Fig. 1-18, p. 21

8. Fig. 6-2, p. 127 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Average annual global growth rate (percent) 0.0 19701990201020302050 Year 1950

9. Population Time Line: 10,000 BC - 2042 Figure 3, Supplement 9

10. Annual Growth Rate of World Population, 1950-2010 Fig. 6-2, p. 127

11. Where Population Growth Occurred, 1950-2010 Fig. 6-3, p. 127

12. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Population in less-developed countries World population (in billions) 2 1 Population in more-developed countries 0 1960197019801990200020102020203020402050 1950 Year

13. Five Most Populous Countries, 2010 and 2050 Fig. 6-4, p. 127

14. 2010 China1.3 billion United States 310 million India 1.2 billion Indonesia 235 million Brazil 193 million 2050 India 1.7 billion China 1.4 billion United States 439 million Pakistan 335 million Indonesia 309 million

15. Fig. 6-A, p. 128 11 UN high-fertility variant (2008 revision) U.S. Census Bureau (2008 update) 10 UN low-fertility variant (2008 revision) IIASA (2007 update) 9 8 World population (in billions) 7 6 20102020203020402050 Year UN medium-fertility variant (2008 revision)

16. Science Focus: Projecting Population Change Why range of 7.8-10.8 billion for 2050? Demographers must: 1.Determine reliability of current estimates 2.Make assumptions about fertility trends 3.Deal with different databases and sets of assumptions

17. World Population Projections to 2050 Fig. 6-A, p. 128

18. Science Focus: How Long Can The Human Population Keep Growing? Thomas Malthus and population growth: 1798 Overpopulation and overconsumption Will technology increase human carrying capacity? Can the human population grow indefinitely?

19. Natural Capital Degradation: Altering Nature to Meet Our Needs Fig. 6-B, p. 129

20. Natural Capital Degradation Altering Nature to Meet Our Needs Reducing biodiversity Increasing use of net primary productivity Increasing genetic resistance in pest species and disease-causing bacteria Eliminating many natural predators Introducing harmful species into natural communities Using some renewable resources faster than they can be replenished Disrupting natural chemical cycling and energy flow Relying mostly on polluting and climate-changing fossil fuels

21. 6-2 What Factors Influence the Size of the Human Population? Concept 6-2A Population size increases because of births and immigration, and decreases through deaths and emigration. Concept 6-2B The average number of children born to women in a population (total fertility rate) is the key factor that determines population size.

22. The Human Population Can Grow, Decline, or Remain Fairly Stable Population change Births: fertility Deaths: mortality Migration Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration) Crude birth rate: # live births/1000/year Crude death rate: # deaths/1000/year

23. Women Having Fewer Babies but Not Few Enough to Stabilize the World’s Population Fertility rate number of children born to a woman during her lifetime Replacement-level fertility rate Average number of children a couple must have to replace themselves 2.1 in developed countries Up to 2.5 in developing countries Total fertility rate (TFR) Average number of children born to women in a population

24. Total fertility rate, 1955-2010 Fig. 6-5, p. 130

25. 8 7 Less-developed countries 6 5 World Total fertility rate (children per woman) 3 More- developed countries 4 2 195519701990201020302050 1 Year

26. 2010 Rate of Population Increase Figure 11, Supplement 8

27. Figure 12, Supplement 8 Total Fertility Rate

28. Case Study: The U.S. Population Is Growing Rapidly Population still growing and not leveling off 76 million in 1900 310 million in 2010 Drop in TFR in U.S. Rate of population growth has slowed Changes in lifestyle in the U.S. during the 20 th century

29. U.S. TFRs and birth rates 1917-2010 Fig. 6-6, p. 131

30. 4.0 3.5 2.5 Baby boom (1946–64) Replacement level Births per woman 0.5 0 1920193019401950196019701980199020002010 Year 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 0 transition Depression Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom Demographic End of World War II Births per thousand population 1920193019401950196019701980199020002010 Year 2.1 2.0 1.0 1.5 3.0

31. Fig. 6-7, p. 132 20 th Century Lifestyle Changes in the U.S.

32. Fig. 6-7, p. 132 Life expectancy Married women working outside the home 81% 8% 77 years 47 years High school graduates 83% Homes with flush toilets 98% Homes with electricity 2% 99% 10% 15% People living in suburbs 10% 52% 1900 Hourly manufacturing job wage $3 2000 $15 Homicides per 100,000 people 1.2 5.8

33. 77 years Life expectancy 47 years 1900 2000 Married women working outside the home 8% 81% High school graduates 15% 83% Homes with flush toilets 10% 98% Homes with electricity 2% 99% Living in suburbs 10% 52% Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation) $3 $15 Homicides per 100,000 people 1.2 5.8 Stepped Art Fig. 6-7, p. 132

34. Several Factors Affect Birth Rates and Fertility Rates (1) Children as part of the labor force Cost of raising and educating children Availability of private and public pension Urbanization Educational and employment opportunities for women

35. Several Factors Affect Birth Rates and Fertility Rates (2) Average age of a woman at birth of first child Availability of legal abortions Availability of reliable birth control methods Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms

36. Fig. 6-8, p. 132 Girl Carrying Well Water in India

37. Fig. 6-9, p. 133 Child Laborers in India

38. Several Factors Affect Death Rates (1) Life expectancy Infant mortality rate Number of live births that die in first year Why are people living longer? Increased food supply and distribution Better nutrition Medical advances Improved sanitation

39. Several Factors Affect Death Rates (2) U.S. is 54 th in world for infant mortality rate U.S. infant mortality rate high due to Inadequate health care for poor women during pregnancy and their infants Drug addiction among pregnant women High birth rate among teenagers

40. Fig. 6-10, p. 134 Infant Mortality Rates, 1950-2010

41. Fig. 6-10, p. 134 200 150 Less-developed countries 100 World Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 50 More-developed countries 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year

42. Figure 13, Supplement 8 Infant Mortality Rates in 2010

43. Migration Affects an Area’s Population Size Economic improvement Religious freedom Political freedom Wars Environmental refugees

44. Case Study: The United States: A Nation of Immigrants Historical role of immigration in the U.S. Legal immigration Illegal immigration Controversy over immigration policy

45. Fig. 6-11, p. 135 Legal Immigration to the U.S. between 1820 and 2006

46. Fig. 6-11, p. 135 2,000 1,800 1,600 1907 1,400 1914 New laws restrict immigration 1,200 1,000 800 Great Depression 600 400 Number of legal immigrants (thousands) 200 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 Year 0

47. 6-3 How Does a Population’s Age Structure Affect Its Growth or Decline? Concept 6-3 The numbers of males and females in young, middle, and older age groups determine how fast a population grows or declines.

48. A Population’s Age Structure Helps Us Make Projections Age structure categories Prereproductive ages (0-14) Reproductive ages (15-44) Postreproductive ages (45 and older) Seniors are the fastest-growing age group

49. Fig. 6-12, p. 136 Generalized Population Age-Structure Diagrams

50. Fig. 6-12, p. 136 MaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemale Expanding Rapidly Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Expanding Slowly United States Australia China Stable Japan Italy Greece Declining Germany Bulgaria Russia Prereproductive ages 0–14 Reproductive ages 15–44 Postreproductive ages 45–85+

51. Fig. 6-13, p. 136 Population Structure by Age and Sex in Developing and Developed Countries

52. Case Study: The American Baby Boom 79 million people, 36% of adults Affect politics and economics Now becoming senior citizens Graying of America

53. Fig. 6-14, p. 137 Tracking the Baby-Boom Generation in the United States

54. Populations Made Up of Mostly Older People Can Decline Rapidly Slow decline Manageable Rapid decline Severe economic problems How pay for services for elderly Proportionally fewer young people working Labor shortages Severe social problems

55. Fig. 6-15, p. 138 Some Problems with Rapid Population Decline

56. Fig. 6-15, p. 138 Some Problems with Rapid Population Decline Can threaten economic growth Labor shortages Less government revenues with fewer workers Less entrepreneurship and new business formation Less likelihood for new technology development Increasing public deficits to fund higher pension and health-care costs Pensions may be cut and retirement age increased

57. Populations Can Decline from a Rising Death Rate: The AIDS Tragedy 27 million killed: 1981-2009 Many young adults die: loss of most productive workers Sharp drop in life expectancy International community Reduce the spread of HIV through education and health care Financial assistance and volunteers

58. Fig. 6-16, p. 139 Botswana Age Structure, With and Without AIDS

59. Fig. 6-16, p. 139 100+ 95–99 90–94 85–89 80–84 75–79 70–74 65–69 60–64 55–59 50–54 45–49 40–44 35–39 30–34 25–29 20–24 15–19 10–14 5–9 0–4 MalesFemales Age 80 100 120 With AIDSWithout AIDS Population (thousands) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60

60. 6-4 How Can We Slow Human Population Growth? Concept 6-4 We can slow human population growth by reducing poverty, elevating the status of women, and encouraging family planning.

61. As Countries Develop, Their Populations Tend to Grow More Slowly Demographic transition First death rates decline Then birth rates decline Four stages 1. Preindustrial 2.Transitional 3.Industrial 4.Postindustrial

62. Fig. 6-17, p. 140 Four Stages of the Demographic Transition

63. Fig. 6-17, p. 140 Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Population grows very slowly because of a high birth rate (to compensate for high infant mortality) and a high death rate Population grows rapidly because birth rates are high and death rates drop because of improved food production and health Population growth slows as both birth and death rates drop because of improved Population growth levels off and then declines as birth rates equal and then fall below death rates 80 70 60 Total population 50 Birth rate 40 30 20 Death rate Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year) 10 0 LowIncreasingVery highDecreasingLowZeroNegative Growth rate over time food production, health, and education

64. Death rate Total population Birth rate Population grows rapidly because birth rates are high and death rates drop because of improved food production and health Decreasing Stage 2 Transitional IncreasingVery high Stepped Art Population growth levels off and then declines as birth rates equal and then fall below death rates Stage 4 Postindustrial NegativeZero Population grows very slowly because of a high birth rate (to compensate for high infant mortality) and a high death rate Stage 1 Preindustrial Growth rate over time 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year) Low Population growth slows as both birth and death rates drop because of improved food production, health, and education Stage 3 Industrial Low Fig. 6-17, p. 140

65. Fig. 6-18, p. 140 TFR in Bangladesh and U.S., 1800-2010

66. Fig. 6-18, p. 140 8 7 7.0 7.1 Bangladesh 6 5 United States 4 3 2 2.4 Average lifetime births per woman (TFR) 1 0 180018201840186018801900192019401960198020002010 2.0 Year

67. Fig. 6-19, p. 141 Slum in India

68. Empowering Women Can Slow Population Growth Factors that decrease total fertility rates: Education Paying jobs Ability to control fertility Women Do most of the domestic work and child care Provide unpaid health care 2/3 of all work for 10% of world’s income Discriminated against legally and culturally

69. Fig. 6-20, p. 141 Burkina Faso Women Hauling Fuelwood

70. Promote Family Planning Family planning in less-developed countries Responsible for a 55% drop in TFRs Financial benefits: money spent on family planning saves far more in health, education costs Two problems 1.42% pregnancies unplanned, 26% end with abortion 2.Many couples do not have access to family planning

71. Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in India 1.2 billion people, most populous country in 2015 Problems Poverty Malnutrition Environmental degradation Bias toward having male children Poor couples want many children Only 48% of couples use family planning

72. Fig. 6-21, p. 143 Homeless Woman and Child in India

73. Three Big Ideas 1.The human population is increasing rapidly and may soon bump up against environmental limits. 2.Even if population growth were not a serious problem, the increasing use of resources per person is expanding the overall human ecological footprint and putting a strain on the earth’s resources.

74. Three Big Ideas 3.We can slow population growth by reducing poverty through economic development, elevating the status of women, and encouraging family planning.