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This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff,

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Presentation on theme: "This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff,"— Presentation transcript:

1 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.  What is Strategic Thinking Game Theory Applications to Business Applications to Life Strategic Thinking

2 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Survivor: Picking Sticks  Rules: 12 Sticks During a player’s turn each person can pick 1-3 sticks. Last person to move wins 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

3 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Modified Picking Sticks Game  Rules: 14 Sticks During a player’s turn each person can pick 1-3 sticks. Last person to move wins 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 114 13

4 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. The Cambridge May Ball  Casino Night Roulette  Play Money  Winner gets ticket to the ball  In the final round Barry has $700, and Eva $300

5 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. The Cambridge May Ball  Roulette Numbers 0-36  0 is green  1-36 odd numbers are Red, even are black Betting $1 on Red wins with prob 18/37 and pays $2 Betting $1 on a multiple of 3 wins with probability 12/37 and pays $3.  What should each person do?

6 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Forecasting Stock Performance  Bob is a veteran predictor of stocks. His predictions appear on a popular Web-Site Each Monday Morning.  Jim is unknown If his stocks perform better than Bob’s he may attract attention If his stocks perform the same or worse than Bob’s he remains unknown.  When should Bob post his picks on his web-site? How should he make his choices?

7 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. America’s Cup  A two boat sailing race  The Australian boat starts out behind

8 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. It’s your move Charlie Brown  Lucy: “I’ll hold the ball, you come running up and kick it Charlie Brown”  Charlie Brown “This year I’m gonna kick the ball out of the universe.”

9 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. New Cleaners & Fast Cleaners  Vacuum Cleaners Existing company Fast Cleaner’s Vacuums Potential Entrant: New Cleaners  Post Entry choices for Fast Cleaners Accommodate entry Fight a price war

10 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. New Cleaners & Fast Cleaners Newcleaners Enter Keep Out Fast Cleaners Accommodate Price War $0 to New Cleaners $-200,000 to New Cleaners $100,000 to New Cleaners

11 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. New Cleaners & Fast Cleaners Newcleaners Enter Keep Out Fast Cleaners Accommodate Price War $0 to New Cleaners $-200,000 to New Cleaners -$100,000 to Fast Cleaners $100,000 to New Cleaners $100,000 to Fast Cleaners

12 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Bargaining: Ice-Cream Pie  Take-it-or-leave-it offers  The pie is melting

13 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Politics and the High Road Obama Clinton High Road Low Road Obama Wins Clinton has a chance Obama Wins Clinton has a chance

14 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. 1984 Orange Bowl  Nebraska is undefeated, U. of Miami has one loss prior to the Orange Bowl If Nebraska wins or ties the game it wins the national title In the 4 th quarter Miami led 31-17  Nebraska score two touchdowns  On the second touchdown Nebraska goes for the win by trying 2-point extra point. They fail, and lose.

15 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Dominant Strategies  Professor Jones choosing the right grail  Baseball: 2-outs, 2-strikes, runner on first

16 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Time and Newsweek Newsweek’s Choices AIDSBudget Time’s Choices AIDS35* / 35**70* / 30** Budget30* / 70**15* / 15** *Magazine sales for Time; ** Magazine sales for Newseek

17 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. A different situation Newsweek’s Choices AIDSBudget Time’s Choices AIDS42* / 28**70* / 30** Budget30* / 70**18* / 12**

18 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Football Defense’s Strategies Counter Run Counter Pass Blitz Offense’s Strategies Run 3*7*15* Pass 9*8*10* * Offense’s expected yardage gain

19 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Missile warfare A I American Ship Iraqi Ship B C D E F G H

20 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Table of Hits and Misses Iraqi Strategy AMERICANAMERICAN 1-IFCB2-IFEB3-IFED4-IFEH 5- IHGD 6- IHED 7-IHEB8-IHEF 1-ABCF HOOOOOOH 2-ABEF OHHHOHHH 3-ABEH OHHHOHHH 4-ABED OHHHHHHH 5-ADGH OOOHHOOO 6-ADEH OHHHOHHH 7-ADEF OHHHOHHH 8-ADEB HHHHOHHH

21 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Dominated Strategies Iraqi Strategy AMERICANAMERICAN 1-IFCB2-IFEB3-IFED4-IFEH 5- IHGD 6- IHED 7-IHEB8-IHEF 1-ABCF HOOOOOOH 2-ABEF OHHHOHHH 3-ABEH OHHHOHHH 4-ABED OHHHHHHH 5-ADGH OOOHHOOO 6-ADEH OHHHOHHH 7-ADEF OHHHOHHH 8-ADEB HHHHOHHH

22 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Reduced Table of Hits and Misses Iraqi Strategies American Strategies IFCBIHGD ABEDOH ADEBHO

23 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991. Nash Equilibrium  Definition  Feast: Too many equilibria Standards: Driving on the right side of the road. Phone connection breaks off: Who calls back  Famine Re-examine the Missile game Mixed Strategies


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