1 Youth Employment: The Context Presentation to Webinar on Rural Youth Workforce Development April 21, 2016 Ray D. Bollman Research.

1 Youth Employment: The Context Presentation to Webinar on Rural Youth Workforce Development April 21, 2016 Ray D. Bollman RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net2 Youth Employment: The Context Summary 1. B.C.’s non-metro population is growing ‘slowly’ (where “metro” is a centre with 100,000+ population plus all neighbouring communities where 50+% commute to metro) 2. B.C. has fewer potential labour market entrants than potential labour market retirees. 3. Population in the Columbia Basin / Kootenay Region has been essentially flat over the last 2 decades (see hidden slides). 4. Positive natural balance (births > deaths) in the East Kootenay R.D. but negative natural balance in the Kootenay Boundary R.D. (see hidden slides) 5. In the first half of the 2000s, more migrants moved out than moved into the Kootenays (i.e. negative internal migration). In the last 10 years, the pattern has varied with some years of positive net migration into the Kootenays. (see hidden slides) 6. Annual immigrant arrivals have been less than 0.25% of the resident population (compared to a Canadian average of about 0.7% per year) (see hidden slides) 7. Net out-migration of youth 15-19 yr.; a smaller rate of net OUT-migration of young adults 20-24 yr. and a small rate of net IN-migration of young adults 25-29 yr. (see hidden slides for each R.D.) 8. The share of B.C. non-metro youth in school has been (about) constant for nearly 20 years. 9. Non-metro non-student young adults (25-29 yr.) are as likely to be employed as the non-metro core-age workforce (25-54 yr.). 10. Non-metro students and non-students are (about) equally likely to be employed as metro:  During the school year; and  During the summer months 11. By age 25-29, young adults in non-metro B.C. hold (about) the same mix of jobs by industry and by occupation as are held by all workers (15+ years of age) (annual data are in hidden slides). 12. Most job vacancies in the Kootenay Region are in traditionally-low-wage jobs (detailed data are in hidden slides).

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net3 Youth Employment: The Context But first, The Kootenay Region is in southeast British Columbia. It (almost entirely) consists of the headwaters of the Columbia River which flows south into the U.S and west forming the border between Oregon and the state of Washington before flowing into the Pacific Ocean. The Kootenay Region comprises three regional districts (R.D.): East Kootenay R.D. Central Kootenay R.D.; and Kootenay Boundary R.D.

Population by CD

5RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net Population growth rates between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015 by economic region (ER), British Columbia

Statistics Canada www.statcan.gc.ca Skip to contentSkip to content | Common menu bar links Français Home Contact Us Help Search canada.gc.ca HomeHome > Publications > 91-214-X > Annual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas > Thematic maps >Publications91-214-XAnnual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial AreasThematic maps Page content follows Map 4.3 Net internal migration rates between July 1, 2010 and June 30, 2011 by census division (CD), Canada NextNext | PreviousPrevious Date Modified: 2012-03-07 Top of Pageop of Page Important Notices RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net6 Net internal migration rates between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015 by census division (CD), Canada East Kootenay Central Kootenay Kootenay Boundary

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net7 Youth Employment: The Context Summary 1.B.C.’s non-metro population is growing ‘slowly’ where “metro” is a centre with 100,000+ population plus all neighbouring communities where 50+% commute to metro 2. B.C. has fewer potential labour market entrants than potential labour market retirees. 3. Population in the Columbia Basin / Kootenay Region has been essentially flat over the last 2 decades (see hidden slides). 4. Positive natural balance (births > deaths) in the East Kootenay R.D. but negative natural balance in the Kootenay Boundary R.D. (see hidden slides) 5. In the first half of the 2000s, more migrants moved out than moved into the Kootenays (i.e. negative internal migration). In the last 10 years, the pattern has varied with some years of positive net migration into the Kootenays. (see hidden slides) 6. Annual immigrant arrivals have been less than 0.25% of the resident population (compared to a Canadian average of about 0.7% per year) (see hidden slides) 7. Net out-migration of youth 15-19 yr.; a smaller rate of net OUT-migration of young adults 20-24 yr. and a small rate of net IN-migration of young adults 25-29 yr. (see hidden slides for each R.D.) 8. The share of B.C. non-metro youth in school has been (about) constant for nearly 20 years. 9. Non-metro non-student young adults (25-29 yr.) are as likely to be employed as the non-metro core-age workforce (25-54 yr.). 10. Non-metro students and non-students are (about) equally likely to be employed as metro:  During the school year; and  During the summer months 11. By age 25-29, young adults in non-metro B.C. hold (about) the same mix of jobs by industry and by occupation as are held by all workers (15+ years of age) (annual data are in hidden slides). 12. Most job vacancies in the Kootenay Region are in traditionally-low-wage jobs (detailed data are in a hidden slide).

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net8

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net11 Youth Employment: The Context Summary 1. B.C.’s non-metro population is growing ‘slowly’ (where “metro” is a centre with 100,000+ population plus all neighbouring communities where 50+% commute to metro) 2. B.C. has fewer potential labour market entrants than potential labour market retirees. 3. Population in the Columbia Basin / Kootenay Region has been essentially flat over the last 2 decades (see hidden slides). 4. Positive natural balance (births > deaths) in the East Kootenay R.D. but negative natural balance in the Kootenay Boundary R.D. (see hidden slides) 5. In the first half of the 2000s, more migrants moved out than moved into the Kootenays (i.e. negative internal migration). In the last 10 years, the pattern has varied with some years of positive net migration into the Kootenays. (see hidden slides) 6. Annual immigrant arrivals have been less than 0.25% of the resident population (compared to a Canadian average of about 0.7% per year) (see hidden slides) 7. Net out-migration of youth 15-19 yr.; a smaller rate of net OUT-migration of young adults 20-24 yr. and a small rate of net IN-migration of young adults 25-29 yr. (see hidden slides for each R.D.) 8. The share of B.C. non-metro youth in school has been (about) constant for nearly 20 years. 9. Non-metro non-student young adults (25-29 yr.) are as likely to be employed as the non-metro core-age workforce (25-54 yr.). 10. Non-metro students and non-students are (about) equally likely to be employed as metro:  During the school year; and  During the summer months 11. By age 25-29, young adults in non-metro B.C. hold (about) the same mix of jobs by industry and by occupation as are held by all workers (15+ years of age) (annual data are in hidden slides). 12. Most job vacancies in the Kootenay Region are in traditionally-low-wage jobs (detailed data are in a hidden slide).

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net12 Index of demographic pressure on the labour market: Potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age) as a percent of potential exiters from the labour force (55 to 64 years of age) Index >100, more (potential) entrants than (potential) exiters Index <100, fewer (potential) entrants than (potential) exiters

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net52 Share of youth attending school

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net75 Youth Employment: The Context Summary 1. B.C.’s non-metro population is growing ‘slowly’ (where “metro” is a centre with 100,000+ population plus all neighbouring communities where 50+% commute to metro) 2. B.C. has fewer potential labour market entrants than potential labour market retirees. 3. Population in the Columbia Basin / Kootenay Region has been essentially flat over the last 2 decades (see hidden slides). 4. Positive natural balance (births > deaths) in the East Kootenay R.D. but negative natural balance in the Kootenay Boundary R.D. (see hidden slides) 5. In the first half of the 2000s, more migrants moved out than moved into the Kootenays (i.e. negative internal migration). In the last 10 years, the pattern has varied with some years of positive net migration into the Kootenays. (see hidden slides) 6. Annual immigrant arrivals have been less than 0.25% of the resident population (compared to a Canadian average of about 0.7% per year) (see hidden slides) 7. Net out-migration of youth 15-19 yr.; a smaller rate of net OUT-migration of young adults 20-24 yr. and a small rate of net IN-migration of young adults 25-29 yr. (see hidden slides for each R.D.) 8. The share of B.C. non-metro youth in school has been (about) constant for nearly 20 years. 9. Non-metro non-student young adults (25-29 yr.) are as likely to be employed as the non-metro core-age workforce (25-54 yr.). 10. Non-metro students and non-students are (about) equally likely to be employed as metro:  During the school year; and  During the summer months 11. By age 25-29, young adults in non-metro B.C. hold (about) the same mix of jobs by industry and by occupation as are held by all workers (15+ years of age) (annual data are in hidden slides). 12. Most job vacancies in the Kootenay Region are in traditionally-low- wage jobs (detailed data in hidden slides).

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net80 Youth Employment: The Context Summary 1. B.C.’s non-metro population is growing ‘slowly’ (where “metro” is a centre with 100,000+ population plus all neighbouring communities where 50+% commute to metro) 2. B.C. has fewer potential labour market entrants than potential labour market retirees. 3. Population in the Columbia Basin / Kootenay Region has been essentially flat over the last 2 decades (see hidden slides). 4. Positive natural balance (births > deaths) in the East Kootenay R.D. but negative natural balance in the Kootenay Boundary R.D. (see hidden slides) 5. In the first half of the 2000s, more migrants moved out than moved into the Kootenays (i.e. negative internal migration). In the last 10 years, the pattern has varied with some years of positive net migration into the Kootenays. (see hidden slides) 6. Annual immigrant arrivals have been less than 0.25% of the resident population (compared to a Canadian average of about 0.7% per year) (see hidden slides) 7. Net out-migration of youth 15-19 yr.; a smaller rate of net OUT-migration of young adults 20-24 yr. and a small rate of net IN-migration of young adults 25-29 yr. (see hidden slides for each R.D.) 8. The share of B.C. non-metro youth in school has been (about) constant for nearly 20 years. 9. Non-metro non-student young adults (25-29 yr.) are as likely to be employed as the non-metro core-age workforce (25-54 yr.). 10. Non-metro students and non-students are (about) equally likely to be employed as metro:  During the school year; and  During the summer months 11. By age 25-29, young adults in non-metro B.C. hold (about) the same mix of jobs by industry and by occupation as are held by all workers (15+ years of age) (annual data are in hidden slides). 12. Most job vacancies in the Kootenay Region are in traditionally-low-wage jobs (detailed data are in hidden slides).

81 Youth Employment: The Context Presentation to Webinar on Rural Youth Workforce Development April 21, 2016 Ray D. Bollman RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan Questions / Discussion

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net82 Youth Employment: The Context Appendix Morissette, René, Ping Ching Winnie Chan and Yuqian Lu. (2016) Wages, Youth Employment and School Enrollment: Recent Evidence from Increases in World Oil Prices (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series No. 353, Catalogue no. 11F0019M) (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11f0019m/11f0019m2014353-eng.htm).http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11f0019m/11f0019m2014353-eng.htm “The main finding is that increased wages have a dual impact for young men: they tend to reduce their full-time university enrollment rates—at least temporarily—and to bring (back) into the labour market those who were neither enrolled in school nor employed. Contrary to previous research from the United States, the study finds no evidence that school enrollment rates of less-educated young men fall in response to increased pay rates... “ (p. 5) Galarneau, Diane, René Morissette and Jeannine Usalcas. (2013) What has changed for young people in Canada? (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Insights on Canadian Society, Catalogue no. 75-006 ) (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-006-x/2013001/article/11847-eng.htm).http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-006-x/2013001/article/11847-eng.htm “For some, the future of young people is uncertain and complex, in contrast to the more linear course of the past where years at school were followed by a secure job and relative stability. The supporters of this view cite the high rate of youth unemployment, the rise in short-term employment, the growing weight of student debt, and the delayed retirement of older workers, which would prevent young people from firmly establishing themselves. For others, the plight of young people is not as worrisome. First, the length of time that young people are unemployed is relatively short, and their employment conditions have improved in recent years. Second, older workers hold only a small proportion of the jobs generally held by the youngest workers and therefore would not interfere with their efforts to work.” (p. 1) “ Are matters better or worse for younger Canadians...The answer differs based on sex, age, and young people’s place of residence... Women age 25 to 34 have experienced an improvement in unemployment, full-time employment rates and wages, while for their male counterparts living in non-oil-producing provinces, as well as for those age 24 and under, it was just the opposite. Men age 25 to 34 living in oil-producing provinces had mixed results—in 2012, their full-time employment rates were slightly lower than three decades earlier, but their unemployment rate was similar and their wages were higher. Nevertheless, changes over the last three decades have not been on a linear trajectory... “ (p. 8)

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net83 Youth Employment: The Context Appendix Main findings Both sexes MalesFemales Bachelor / High School wage gap narrowed Due to oil boom Due to increase in minimum wage and the increase in supply of Bachelor graduates Due to change in share unionized and increase in share of temporary work Bachelor / High School gap widened for % with a full-time job Net effect of two changes above is no change in Bachelor / High School earnings gap Frenette, Marc and René Morissette. (2014) Wages and Full-time Employment Rates of Young High School Graduates and Bachelor’s Degree Holders, 1997 to 2012 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Analytic Studies Branch Research Paper Series No. 260, Catalogue no. 11F0019M) (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11f0019m/11f0019m2014360-eng.htm).http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11f0019m/11f0019m2014360-eng.htm

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net84 Youth Employment: The Context Appendix For comparisons to other jurisdictions, see Bollman, Ray D. (2014) Rural Canada 2013: An Update -- A statement of the current structure and trends in Rural Canada. Paper prepared for the Federation of Canadian Municipalities. (http://crrf.ca/rural-canada-2013-an-update/).http://crrf.ca/rural-canada-2013-an-update/ FCM FactSheet #6 Youth out-migration (http://crrf.ca/rural-canada-2013-an-update/)http://crrf.ca/rural-canada-2013-an-update/ FCM FactSheet #7 Youth retention (http://crrf.ca/rural-canada-2013-an-update/)http://crrf.ca/rural-canada-2013-an-update/ Bollman, Ray D. (2014) “Non-metro migration: Under 18 years of age.” Focus on Rural Ontario (Vol. 2, No. 10, September, 2014) (http://ruralontarioinstitute.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/10-%20Migrants%20under%2018%20final%20October%207.pdf).http://ruralontarioinstitute.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/10-%20Migrants%20under%2018%20final%20October%207.pdf Bollman, Ray D. (2014) “Non-metro migration: 18 to 24 years of age.” Focus on Rural Ontario (Vol. 2, No. 11, September, 2014) (http://ruralontarioinstitute.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/11-%20Migrants%2018%20to%2024%20Oct%207.pdf).http://ruralontarioinstitute.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/11-%20Migrants%2018%20to%2024%20Oct%207.pdf Bollman, Ray D. (2015) “Youth employment by occupation.” Focus on Rural Ontario (Vol. 2, No. 18, January, 2015) (http://www.ruralontarioinstitute.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/18%20Youth%20employment%20by%20occupation%20final.pdf). (http://www.ruralontarioinstitute.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/18%20Youth%20employment%20by%20occupation%20final.pdf Bollman, Ray D. (2015) “Youth employment by industry.” Focus on Rural Ontario (Vol. 2, No. 19, January, 2015) (http://www.ruralontarioinstitute.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/19%20Youth%20employment%20by%20industry%20final(1).pdf).http://www.ruralontarioinstitute.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/19%20Youth%20employment%20by%20industry%20final(1).pdf) Bollman, Ray D. (2015) “Ontario youth employment rates.” Focus on Rural Ontario (Vol. 2, No. 20, January, 2015) (http://www.ruralontarioinstitute.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/20%20Youth%20employment%20rates%20final.pdf).http://www.ruralontarioinstitute.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/20%20Youth%20employment%20rates%20final.pdf Bollman, Ray D. (2015) “Youth migration, 2009-2014.” Focus on Rural Ontario Vol. 3, No. 5 (Guelph: Rural Ontario Institute) (http://www.ruralontarioinstitute.ca/focus-on-rural-ontario.aspx).http://www.ruralontarioinstitute.ca/focus-on-rural-ontario.aspx

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1 Youth Employment: The Context Presentation to Webinar on Rural Youth Workforce Development April 21, 2016 Ray D. Bollman Research.

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