1. TropicalM. D. Eastin TC Lifecycle and Intensity Changes Part I: Genesis Hurricane Katrina (2005) August 24-29

2. TropicalM. D. Eastin Outline Tropical Cyclone Genesis Large-Scale Factors Easterly Waves and MCVs CISK Mechanism WISHE Mechanism VHT Mechanism MP Mechanism

3. TropicalM. D. Eastin TC Genesis Genesis: The transformation of a “disorganized” cold-core convective system into a self-sustaining synoptic-scale warm-core vortex with a cyclonic circulation at the surface Necessary (but not sufficient) Conditions: Pre-existing convection Significant planetary vorticity Favorable wind shear pattern Moist Mid-troposphere Warm ocean with deep mixed layer Conditionally unstable atmosphere

4. TropicalM. D. Eastin Pre-existing Convection: Source of latent heating Persistent heating in one area will lower the local surface pressure and begin to converge air toward the low pressure (recall the hypsometric equation) TC Genesis

5. TropicalM. D. Eastin Significant Planetary Vorticity: Convection near the equator results in little if any rotation in the low-level inflow Convection off the equator will contain rotation in the low level inflow due to appreciable Coriolis forcing Systems need to be ~5º off the equator in order to have a chance for development TC Genesis

6. TropicalM. D. Eastin Favorable Wind Shear Pattern: Wind shear is often defined as the vector difference between winds at two altitudes (850 and 200 mb) Low magnitudes of shear (< 20 knots) are desired TC Genesis High westerly shearLow easterly shear Bad – convection torn apart Good – latent heat can concentrate in one area

7. TropicalM. D. Eastin Moist Mid-Troposphere: Dry air will lead to evaporation and cooling Cooling produces a surface high pressure, low-level divergence, sinking air, and a suppression of convection TC Genesis Red Areas = Dry Gray/Blue Areas = Moist GOES Water Vapor Image Strong downdrafts = Outflow Boundaries

8. TropicalM. D. Eastin Warm Ocean: Allows for sensible and latent heat fluxes from the ocean in order to sustain deep convection SSTs > 26.5ºC is the rule TC Genesis Deep Convection L Standard Flux Equations The inflowing air gains heat and moisture only if the ocean is warmer and moister than the air

9. TropicalM. D. Eastin Deep Oceanic Mixed Layer: Mixed layer: Nearly isothermal ocean layer from the surface to a depth where temperatures cool rapidly (the thermocline) Strong winds churn up cool water from the thermocline or below Deeper mixed layers prevent the cooling of surface waters Cold surface waters limit (or reverse) sensible and latent heat fluxes, reducing convection TC Genesis Mixed Layer

10. TropicalM. D. Eastin Conditionally Unstable Atmosphere: Lapse rate between the dry adiabatic and moist adiabatic lapse rates Parcels become unstable only when lifted to their Level of Free Convection (LFC) Further ascent produces latent heat release and locally warm air (lowers surface pressure) Frictional convergence produces lift TC Genesis Sounding on a Skew-T

11. TropicalM. D. Eastin Easterly Waves Origin: Develop over sub-Saharan Africa from instabilities along the African Easterly Jet Basics: Wavelengths of ~3000 km Move westward at 6-8 m/s 60-80 easterly waves cross the Atlantic each year between July and October 7-9 develop into tropical cyclones Why do we care about easterly waves? Often emerge over warm waters with convection Like mid-latitude synoptic waves, have preferred regions of lift (east of the trough): helps generate persistent convection in the same location Often contain mid-level (but not surface) vortices Systems “pre-conditioned” for successful genesis

12. TropicalM. D. Eastin Mesoscale Convective Vortices (MCVs) Origin: Develop within persistent mesoscale convection from heating aloft (convection) and cooling below (cold downdrafts) Basics: Confined to mid-levels with little or no signature at the surface Often present in easterly waves Dynamically stable (last several days) Multiple convective cycles Can emerge from the continental U.S. and developed into tropical cyclones (e.g. Hurricane Danny 1997) Why do we care about MCVs? Often emerge over warm waters with convection Systems “pre-conditioned” for successful genesis Cold Typical MCV Cross-Section Warm Positive Vorticity Negative Vorticity

13. TropicalM. D. Eastin TC Genesis One of the greatest enigmas of tropical meteorology: How do we transform a cold-core synoptic-scale disturbance with a mid-level vortex to a warm-core system with a surface vortex? “This question has been asked at every tropical cyclone conference since the first one in 1960” ---- Dr. William (Bill) Gray, 2014

14. TropicalM. D. Eastin Convective Instability of the Second Kind (CISK): First proposed by Jule Charney in 1964 Assumes the atmosphere is conditionally unstable Requires the presence of a finite amplitude synoptic scale disturbance (easterly wave) Assumes latent heat release results from synoptic-scale frictional convergence Remaining question: How does the surface vortex form? Genesis via the CISK Mechanism Jule Charney

15. TropicalM. D. Eastin Genesis via the CISK Mechanism 1 Friction with surface causes inflow into the disturbance to be “deflected” inward toward the surface center. Mass continuity dictates upward motion must result. This process is called “Ekman Pumping” Upward motion causes saturation and thus latent heat release. If conditionally unstable, upward motion will continue and enhance secondary circulation. Vortex will stretch, which will develop and intensify low-level cyclonic vorticity (through conservation of angular momentum) 2 Latent Heat Release L Charney and Eliassen (1964) showed that CISK developed a TC with a diameter of 100 km in 2.5 days (similar to observations)

16. TropicalM. D. Eastin Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange (WISHE): First proposed by Kerry Emanuel in 1986 Assumes the tropical atmosphere is not conditionally unstable, but rather near neutral to moist convection (i.e. the thermodynamic profile is moist adiabatic) Assumes the primary instability is the thermodynamic difference between ocean and the boundary layer air (i.e. sensible and latent heat fluxes are crucial) Genesis requires the presence of a finite amplitude disturbance (i.e. an easterly wave or MCV) Remaining question: How does the surface vortex form? Genesis via the WISHE Mechanism Kerry Emanuel

17. TropicalM. D. Eastin Genesis via the WISHE Mechanism a. Prior convective cycle creates a MCV. Continued stratiform rain leads to cooling and a mesoscale downdraft, which transports the mid-level vorticity and low-θ e air to the surface b. New surface cyclone envokes sensible and latent heat fluxes. Frictional driven inflow begins to warm and moisten, and develop new convection. c. Downdrafts disappear, convection regularly occurs in near neutral air, warm core gradually develops, further vortex intensification near the surface

18. TropicalM. D. Eastin Vortical Hot Towers (VHT): First proposed by Mike Montgomery in 2004 Assumes the atmosphere is conditionally unstable Assumes the preferred route to genesis is from multiple “merger events” between convective-scale cumulonimbus towers that possess intense cyclonic vorticity Genesis requires the presence of a finite amplitude disturbance (easterly wave or MCV) for a background vorticity source Remaining question: How does the surface vortex form? Genesis via the VHT Mechanism Mike Montgomery

19. TropicalM. D. Eastin Genesis via the VHT Mechanism a. Hot towers (buoyant updrafts) develop and feed off the conditional instability. Minimal low-level vorticity. b. Upward acceleration leads to vorticity stretching and low-level convergence (via angular momentum conservation) of background vorticity Considerable low-level vorticity

20. TropicalM. D. Eastin Genesis via the VHT Mechanism Observational Evidence: Tropical Storm Gustav (2002) Vertically sheared from the northeast Exposed low-level circulation Convection confined to the southwest Episodic convective bursts (hot towers) developed multiple low-level vortices that rotated around to the northeast Shear Vector Low-level vortices

21. TropicalM. D. Eastin Genesis via the VHT Mechanism z = 0.67 km Low-level vorticity maxima associated with two distinct hot towers are present Roughly 0.5 hrs later the maxima have merged into a single stronger low-level vorticity maximum The low-level vortex develops through multiple merger events.

22. TropicalM. D. Eastin Marsupial Pouch (MP): First proposed by Tim Dunkerton, Zhou Wang, and Mike Montgomery in 2009 A special case for the VHT Mechanism Most applicable in the Atlantic basin Assumes the atmosphere is conditionally unstable Requires the presence of a moving and mature finite amplitude disturbance (an easterly wave) with a closed central circulation in the wave-relative framework (also called the “marsupial pouch”) Assumes the preferred route to genesis is from multiple “merger events” between both shallow and deep VHTs contained within the re-circulating marsupial pouch Remaining question: Why is the marsupial pouch desirable? Genesis via the MP Mechanism Mike Montgomery Tim Dunkerton Zhou Wang Captain Kangaroo

23. TropicalM. D. Eastin Marsupial Pouch (MP): The pouch serves as a “protective barrier” between the re-circulating inner region with large vertical vorticity and the bypassing outer environment with smaller vorticity, drier air, and stronger vertical shear The pouch prevents intrusions of negative factors that might prohibit genesis Increases the likelihood of genesis Stronger easterly waves with pouches tend to undergo genesis compared to weaker waves with small pouches Real-time pouch tracking: http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2015-atlantic.html http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2015-atlantic.html Genesis via the MP Mechanism Streamlines in the wave-relative reference frame Wave Axis

24. TropicalM. D. Eastin Genesis via the MP Mechanism Thin black contours:Wave-relative streamlines at 600-mb Thin red contours:Pouch boundaries at 600-mb Thick black line:Trough (wave) axis Shading:Precipitation Rate (mm/day) Large Black Dot:Genesis time and location Tropical Storm Fabio (2000) Precipitation Rate

25. TropicalM. D. Eastin Genesis via the MP Mechanism Tropical Storm Fabio (2000) Vertical Vorticity 850-mb Thin black contours:Wave-relative streamlines at 850-mb Thin red contours:Pouch boundaries at 850-mb Thick black line:Trough (wave) axis Shading:Vertical vorticity (10 -5 s -1 ) at 850-mb Large Black Dot:Genesis time and location

26. TropicalM. D. Eastin Genesis via the MP Mechanism Tropical Storm Fabio (2000) Relative Humidity 850-mb Thin black contours:Wave-relative streamlines at 850-mb Thin red contours:Pouch boundaries at 850-mb Thick black line:Trough (wave) axis Shading:Relative Humidity (%) at 850-mb Large Black Dot:Genesis time and location

27. TropicalM. D. Eastin Genesis via the MP Mechanism Thin black contours:Wave-relative streamlines at 850-mb Thin red contours:Pouch boundaries at 850-mb Thick black line:Trough (wave) axis Shading:Vertical Shear (m s -1 ) Large Black Dot:Genesis time and location Tropical Storm Fabio (2000) 200-850-mb Vertical Shear

28. TropicalM. D. Eastin TC Lifecycle and Intensity Changes Part I: Genesis Summary Necessary Large-Scale Conditions Pre-existing convection Significant planetary vorticity Favorable wind shear pattern Moist mid-troposphere Warm ocean with deep mixed layer Conditionally unstable atmosphere Easterly Waves (origin, structure, importance) Mesoscale Convective Vortices (origin, structure, importance) Genesis Mechanisms CISK (assumptions, physical processes) WISHE (assumptions, physical processes) VHTs (assumptions, physical processes) MP (assumptions, physical processes)

29. TropicalM. D. Eastin References Charney, J. G., and A. Eliassen, 1964: On the growth of the hurricane depression. J. Atmos. Sci., 21, 68-75. Dunkerton, T. J., M. T. Montgomery, and Z. Wang, 2009: Tropical cyclogenesis in a tropical wave critical layer – easterly waves. J. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 5587-5646. Emanuel, K. A., 1986: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance., J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 585-604. Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669-770. Hendricks, E. A., M. T, Montgomery, and C. A. Davis, 2004: On the role of “vortical” hot towers in formation of tropical cyclone Diana (1984), J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1209-1231. Montgomery, M. T., M. E. Nicholls, T. A. Cram, and A. B. Saunders, 2006: A vortical hot tower route to tropical cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 355-386.