1. Federal Planning Bureau Economic analyses and forecasts Economic budget 2008 Evaluation of risks and uncertainties

2. Economic budget of January 2008: key figures 20072008 Domestic demand growth2.92.1 Contribution of net exports to GDP growth-0.1 GDP growth2.71.9 Inflation1.83.0 Health index increase1.82.8 Employment (annual change, ‘000 persons)68.146.6 Eurostat unemployment rate7.67.3

3. Economic budget Partial decomposition of quarterly economic growth

4. Economic budget GDP growth and leading indicator

5. Economic budget Monthly development (yoy) of consumer prices

6. Technical simulation Shock on internal prices with effect on inflation of 0.4% 2008 Macroeconomic indicators (difference from baseline in %) Domestic demand-0.09 Gross domestic product-0.05 Consumer price index0.40 Health index0.44 Hourly wage cost0.31 Terms of trade0.01 Employment-0.10 idem, thousands of persons-2.87 Public finances (difference from baseline in million euro) Receipts441 Expenditures321 General government balance120 idem, in % of GDP0.04

7. Risks and uncertainties Growth of relevant export markets (1)

8. Risks and uncertainties Growth of relevant export markets (2) 20072008 Euro area2.61.9 (1.7) Germany2.61.8 (1.7) United States2.12.0 (1.5) Japan1.91.6 (1.4) Relevant export markets7.16.0 (5.6) Figures for 2008 in the economic budget are based on OECD forecasts of December 2007 Figures between brackets are based on March averages of the Economist poll of forecasters

9. Risks and uncertainties Monthly oil price developments

10. Risks and uncertainties Monthly exchange rate developments

11. Technical simulation (1) Downward revision relevant export markets of 0.4% 2008 Macroeconomic indicators (difference from baseline in %) Domestic demand-0.03 Exports-0.28 Imports-0.23 Gross domestic product-0.09 Consumer price index0.00 Employment-0.04 idem, thousands of persons-1.17 Public finances (difference from baseline in million euro) Receipts-103 Expenditures12 General government balance-114 idem, in % of GDP-0.03

12. Technical simulation (2): Upward revision of oil prices of 10% (in dollar and in euro) 2008 Macroeconomic indicators (difference from baseline in %) Domestic demand-0.11 Gross domestic product-0.02 Consumer price index0.33 Health index0.18 Hourly wage cost0.11 Terms of trade-0.57 Employment-0.05 idem, thousands of persons-1.28 Public finances (difference from baseline in million euro) Receipts-145 Expenditures287 General government balance-432 idem in % of GDP-0.13

13. Technical simulation: lower relevant export market growth (-0.4%) and higher oil prices (+10%) 2008 Macroeconomic indicators (difference from baseline in %) Domestic demand-0.14 Exports-0.25 Imports-0.31 Gross domestic product-0.09 Consumer price index0.34 Health index0.18 Hourly wage cost0.11 Employment-0.09 idem, thousands of persons-2.45 Public finances (difference from baseline in million euro) Receipts-293 Expenditures298 General government balance-591 idem, in % of GDP-0.17