1. Census in Phases Prof. Dr. Muhammad Iqbal

3. Outline of Presentation Introduction to Census Essential Features of Census Uses of population Census Introduction to Census Organization History of Census in Pakistan Census Approaches Geographical Region Covered by Census Methodological Approaches to Population Census Technical Aspects of conducting Census in Phases Recommendations /suggestions

4. Census A population census is the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analyzing and publishing or otherwise disseminating demographic, economic and social data pertaining, at a specified time, to all persons in a country or in a well delimited part of a country. Census data collection at country level is of prime importance as it is the main source for study of various aspects of population. Spatial distribution of population both rural and urban, temporal variations, social and economic characteristics ranging from housing to employment, migration, perspectives of ethnicity, epidemiology and health risk assessments, inequalities and poverty mapping, etc., are some of the aspects highlighted through census.

5. Essential features of Census The essential features of population and housing censuses are ◦ Individual Enumeration ◦ Universality within a defined territory ◦ Simultaneity ◦ Defined Periodicity

6. Uses of population censuses Following are some of the uses of the population census ◦ Uses for policymaking, planning and administrative purposes ◦ Uses for research purposes ◦ Uses for business, industry and labor ◦ Uses for electoral boundary delimitation ◦ Use as a sampling frame for surveys ◦ Uses for NFC award, budget allocation etc.

7. Uses of housing censuses Uses for development of benchmark housing statistics Uses for the formulation of housing policy and programmes Assessment of the quality of housing

8. Essential roles of the census The population and housing census plays an essential role in public administration. The census also plays an essential role in all elements of the national statistical system, including the economic and social components. The basic feature of the census is to generate statistics on small areas and small population groups with no or minimum sampling errors. The census results are used as a benchmark for research and analysis. Population projections are one of the most important analytical outputs based on census data.

9. Introduction to Census Organization In Pakistan, Census is conducted by the Census organization. The census organization was established in 1950 as a part and parcel of Ministry of Home Affairs and first three censuses were conducted by this organization while working under this Ministry. After 1972 Census, Census Organization was established on a permanent footing and was made an attached department to Ministry of Interior, so as to maintain expertise, experience and continuity which used to be lost after every census as was the case in 1951 and 1961. With the creation of Registration organization in 1973, as an attached department of Ministry of Interior and also headed by Census Commissioner, both the departments were merged in 1976 to be called “Census & Registration Organization”.

10. In March 1978, the “Census & Registration Organization” was split into two separate departments and Population Census Organization was placed under the Statistics Division which remains as such there after due to promulgation of General Statistics (Re- organization) Act, 2011. The conduct of Census is the responsibility of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

11. History of Census in Pakistan Pakistan has a long history of Census conduction and the first regular Population Census in the area now comprising Pakistan was held in 1881. Since then regular censuses have been conducted after every ten years in the year ending at one. After independence, the first census of Pakistan was conducted in 1951, the second in 1961 while the third census was held in 1972 instead of 1971 due to political environment in the country and war with India. The fourth census was held in March 1981 and fifth one which was due in 1991 could be held in March, 1998 due to specific circumstances.

12. Census Approaches There are two approaches of census enumeration: De-jure De-fecto ◦ In De-jure Method, the persons are counted at their usual place of residence ◦ In De-fecto approach, the persons are counted where they are found on the census data. In Last census held in 1998 both the approaches were applied simultaneously during enumeration, but the data was tabulated and published on de-jure basis for comparability of data over time.

14. Geographical Regions covered by Census Province Total DISTRICT/AGENCYTotal TEHSIL KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA 2669 FATA7/642 PUNJAB36120 SINDH29137 BALOCHISTAN32132 AZAD JAMMU & KASHMIR 1032 GILGIT-BALTISTAN723 ISLAMABAD11

15. Methodological approaches to Census Countries around the world are developing, testing, and implementing alternative methods for collecting, processing and disseminating key statistics that used to be generated by the traditional approach to population and housing censuses. Even so, the crucial principle of providing detailed statistics at the lowest geographical level remains of paramount importance. The following are the major approaches currently in use explain briefly

16. The Traditional Approach Over 190 countries of the world conducted a population census by the traditional approach to a census. The traditional approach comprises a complex operation of actively collecting information from individuals and households on a range of topics at a specified time, accompanied by the compilation, evaluation, analysis and dissemination of demographic, economic, and social data pertaining to a country or a well-delimited part of the country. Members of the public respond to a census questionnaire, or interviewers are deployed to collect information from respondents.

17. For interviewer-based censuses, enumerators assigned to different enumeration areas cover all households and persons in the enumeration area during a specified and usually short period of time in order to meet the requirements of universality and simultaneity. Both short and long forms may be used within the context of traditional censuses. The short form contains only questions intended for universal coverage, while the long form is used to collect information from only a sample of households and population.

18. The register-based approach The concept of producing census-like results based on registers emerged in the 2000 round of censuses, although it has been debated and tested to various degrees since the 1970s, and several countries succeeded in using this approach to generate census data in the 1990 round of censuses. The philosophy underlying this concept is to take advantage of the existing administrative sources, namely, different kinds of registers, of which the following are of primary importance: households, dwellings and individuals. In the next iteration these are linked at the individual level with information on business, tax, education, employment and other relevant registers. While it is theoretically possible to link the records on the basis of the name of the individuals, the existence of a unique identification number for each individual, household and dwelling is of crucial importance, as it allows much more effective and reliable linking of records from different registers.

19. One of the essential preconditions of this approach is that the country should have an established central population register of high quality and good coverage linked with a system of continuous updating. In the case of local registers, continuous updating along with communication between the register systems must be good. The primary advantages of a register approach are reduced cost for the census process and greater frequency of data. However, establishing and conducting administrative registers involve higher costs than the census alone may justify.

20. The rolling census approach A “rolling census” represents an alternative to the traditional model of the census by means of a continuous cumulative survey covering the whole country over a long period of time (generally years), rather than a particular day or short period of enumeration. The two main parameters of a rolling census are the length of the period of enumeration (which is linked to the frequency of updates required) and the sampling rate (which depends on the available budget and the geographic levels required for dissemination purposes).

21. Implementation of such an approach requires highly complex sampling and modeling techniques; a high quality sampling frame in order to allow sampling at very low levels of geography (a master address file updated annually is indispensable); and successful consultation about the approach with major stakeholders, including national and local governments and the user community. The main advantage of this approach is the higher frequency for updating data: a traditional census provides an update every 5 or 10 years, whereas a rolling census provides annual updates. Another advantage is in smoothing the burden of the census, instead of the high cost and labour requirement of a traditional census.

22. Further, it is possible to improve the process year after year and test new technologies. The central disadvantage is that this approach no longer provides a simultaneous snapshot of the whole population, complicating comparisons between areas owing to different enumeration times, even if data collected at different dates are adjusted to have the same reference period, which is usually lagged by two or three years to allow for the cumulation of the annual surveys. In addition, as the rolling census covers the whole country over a long period of time, some respondents move. Thus some people may be surveyed several times and some other people will not be surveyed. As a result, universality might not be ensured unless careful methodological adjustments are made

23. Traditional enumeration with yearly updates of characteristics This design is a variation on the traditional census design and focuses on counting the population and collecting only the basic demographic data in the census year. A very large household survey collects and tabulates detailed demographic, social, economic, and housing data every year throughout the decade, replacing a census-year long form to collect these detailed data from a sample of the population. It may not be necessary to collect data on all topics every year, since requirements of such data may vary from country to country. The survey samples a percentage of addresses each year to approximate a long form sampling rate over a certain period of the census cycle, such as five years.

24. To improve the reliability of the estimates for small governmental units, a larger proportion of addresses is sampled. The sample is cumulated over time to produce the lowest levels of geographic detail similar to the long form sample in the traditional census. Survey data are weighted to reflect the sample design, to adjust for the effects of non-response, and to correct for survey under-coverage or over-coverage. The primary impetus for this approach is twofold: to provide more frequent and relevant data on the population than are available when a census is conducted only once a decade and to reduce the operational risks associated with the census. Such a program, however, is costly and technically difficult to mount, and requires a multi-year program of comprehensive planning, development and testing.

25. Technical Aspects of conducting Census in Phases It is possible to conduct the census in phases as that of Agricultural Census which is conducted in phases. Agricultural Census is conducted in three phases. In Phase-I, Whole of Punjab & Sindh provinces are covered while in Phase-II and Phase-III, various parts of KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA, BALOCHISTAN, whole of Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir are covered. We should also divide the whole country for the credibility of the upcoming census in three or four phases i.e., Phase-I (including more sensitive districts/FATA), Phase-II (including less sensitive districts in all over the country), Phase-III (including normal districts), etc.

26. Advantages Following are the advantage and drawback of the conducting census in phases The census in phases must be conducted by the Government of Pakistan, where the existing approach of census conduction is followed The government can utilize the same men force/ resources in other phases after completion of the census in one phase As there are limited no: of Experts census process therefore, when census is conducted in phases, the expertise can be utilized accordingly It will provide administrative convenience to census organization

27. Disadvantages Comparability ◦ The basic characteristic of the census is simultaneity (i.e. all figures/data are collected at the same time). It is necessary because the figures cannot be comparable/combinable otherwise. Chance of double-counting ◦ As the migration is the continues processes, so there is a chance of double counting while census is conducted in phases Economic activities distribution ◦ The distribution of economic activities can not be merged because people may have different activities/ occupations at different point of time

28. Seal of boundaries ◦ It is necessary for conducting the census to seal the boundaries for the period of census. Then how it will be feasible for the government to do this for a long period Age-wise distribution ◦ Whenever the census is conducted in phases, age distribution cannot be compiled for the whole country accurately because age is a continuous phenomena Marriage and other social Distributions ◦ Same as the age distribution It will provide the only moving picture of the population not the exact picture, so that data can be utilize as the survey data instead of the census

29. Recommendation In the light of above discussion on technical aspects of conducting census in phases, following recommendations/suggestions are made: 1. Through census, as it is modeling the full field enumeration, it must generate yearly (or other interval) estimates of detailed characteristics of population and housing. 2. The primary benefit of the Census should be, to provide more frequent and relevant data on the population and housing 3. The census would provide a snapshot of entire population at a specified period and data for small geographic domain i.e. It should indicate the unique in nature of census

30. Recommendation 4. Pakistan requires population numbers by various social and economic characteristics simultaneously for all geographical levels to meet the needs of planning and the allocation of funds, therefore the Census must be conducted on regular basis. 5. The delimitation of electoral boundaries also demands simultaneity therefore Census must take place 6. At the same time, censuses approach seems the most elaborate, complex and costly but fruitful data collection activity. 7. This complex activity requires full awareness and agreement of the public to participate in it, therefore it is the responsibility of Government to make the Public aware from the importance of the Census.

31. Recommendation 8. To make the public aware from this, media, universities, institutions especially our religious institute (Madrasa) should play an active role. 9. A census is the surety of comprehensive coverage of population and housing and it must ensure simultaneity. 10. The design of the questionnaire required extensive care, as it covers all related topics.

32. Recommendation 11. The questionnaire needs to be more comprehensive, since all data has to come from it. 12. This activity must help to convert the census frame as the base for all subsequent sampling frames. 13. Due to its cost and administrative complexity, it is recommended that it must be conducted only after five or ten year intervals, data tends to become outdated.

33. Recommendation 14. Proper planning is required for every stage of census for the sheer volume of work and overlapping time frames. 15. The recruitment and training of a large number of census takers adds to cost and complexity but it leads toward informative data in bulks. 16. Administrative machinery at the central, provincial and local levels must be involved and is essential for the successful field operations. 17. The resources should be distributed among provinces in contrast to population size.

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