1. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 1 Robinson 6/11/2008 Lincoln Laboratory TFM Research Board Presentation Mark Weber 16 October 2008

2. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 2 Robinson 6/11/2008 Outline Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) Analysis of Airspace Flow Program Rates Roadmap for Weather Integration into TFMM

3. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 3 Robinson 6/11/2008 CIWS – National began operations on 3 June 2008

4. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 4 Robinson 6/11/2008 Performance of CIWS 2-hr Forecast

5. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 5 Robinson 6/11/2008 CoSPA (FY 2007 ) –Support NextGen goals –FAA-oriented Enroute & Terminal Winter & Summer Fully automated Meets TFM needs –Network enabled –Standardized format and access Inception of CoSPA “Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation” 2006 Storm Prediction situation –Multiple forecast systems –Diverse capabilities Resolution, coverage, generation algorithms and display –Uncoordinated leveraging of FAA and NWS assets Central Processing Publish & Subscribe CoSPA WARP has no forecast capability

6. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 6 Robinson 6/11/2008 Combination of Forecast Techniques Storm Tracking Growth/Decay Trending Heuristic Models Extrapolation Storm Tracking Growth/Decay Trending Heuristic Models Extrapolation Extrapolation Forecasts (0 – 6 hr) Sensor Data Numerical Model Forecasts (2 - 12 hr) Sensor Data Gridded Initial Conditions Physical Flow Model Conservation Equations and Thermodynamics (resolves physics of convection) Gridded Initial Conditions Physical Flow Model Conservation Equations and Thermodynamics (resolves physics of convection) Blended Forecasts (1- 5 hr) Blending Module Adjustment of forecast location and intensity based on comparison between Extrapolation & Numerical Model Forecasts Blending Module Adjustment of forecast location and intensity based on comparison between Extrapolation & Numerical Model Forecasts 2-6 hr Forecasts To Web Display Multi-lab collaboration / demonstration with distributed real-time processing

7. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 7 Robinson 6/11/2008 6 hr Forecast Operational Concept

8. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 8 Robinson 6/11/2008 Performance of 2-6 hr Blended Forecast 27 July 2008 18Z

9. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 9 Robinson 6/11/2008 Performance of 2-6 hr Blended Forecast 27 July 2008 18Z

10. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 10 Robinson 6/11/2008 Performance of 2-6 hr Blended Forecast 27 July 2008 18Z

11. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 11 Robinson 6/11/2008 Performance of 2-6 hr Blended Forecast 27 July 2008 18Z

12. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 12 Robinson 6/11/2008 Performance of 2-6 hr Blended Forecast 27 July 2008 18Z

13. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 13 Robinson 6/11/2008 Performance of 2-6 hr Blended Forecast 27 July 2008 18Z

14. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 14 Robinson 6/11/2008 Access CIWS and CoSPA on the Web at LL CIWS website –ciwswww.wx.ll.mit.edu CoSPA website –cospa.wx.ll.mit.edu LL Blackberry access also available –ciwswww.wx.ll.mit.edu/ciws/micro –Handout available Also, visit ATC Mission Area on LL External Web –http://www.ll.mit.edu/mission/aviation/aviationresearch.html

15. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 15 Robinson 6/11/2008 Outline Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) Analysis of Airspace Flow Program Rates Roadmap for Weather Integration into TFMM

16. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 16 Robinson 6/11/2008 Route Availability Planning Tool CIWS Display (showing Echo Tops) No weather Some weather but passable Route partially blockedSignificant storms on route Forecast Accuracy Scoring Region Forecast Accuracy Scores Location J36/J75 departures (10 min past the hour) Location of blockage Echo top height at blockage RAPT Operational Concept Help air traffic managers improve timing of departure route opening and closing Determine severity of convection that future departures will encounter RAPT blockage consistency

17. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 17 Robinson 6/11/2008 RAPT Status Coordinated facility observations in 2007, 2008 –2007 benefit estimates: ~2,300 delay hours, $7.5 million –Identified needed RAPT enhancements More robust guidance when details of the weather forecast are changing Improved measure and presentation of RAPT route availability forecast uncertainty –Procedural improvements needed to increase departure management efficiency Decision makers often lack critical information (e.g., which routes are open, closed) Procedural bottlenecks (e.g., manual entry of reroutes in the Pit, excessive coordinate required to launch pathfinders) reduce achievable benefits Training and experience needed to needed to implement pro-active, distributed decision making (e.g., allow towers to assign weather-avoiding reroutes) Continued work with users to refine ConOps and develop improved procedures Future operational site candidates –PHL –ORD –PCT

18. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 18 Robinson 6/11/2008 Outline Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) Analysis of Airspace Flow Program Rates Roadmap for Weather Integration into TFMM

19. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 19 Robinson 6/11/2008 FCAA05 Events 2007 FCAA05 implemented on 20 convective weather days in 2007

20. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 20 Robinson 6/11/2008 2007 FCAA05 Timing (UTC) Hour Rate Mean Issuance and Start Time Rates (20 A05 AFPs) 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 1450 1650 17102050 2330 Mean FCAA05 Issuance Time Mean FCAA05 Start Time Mean FCAA05 End Time Mean FCAA05 Wx-Development Time Mean FCAA05 Maximum Wx Impact Time 0245 Mean FCAA05 Proposed End Time Mean AFP rate for first 2 hours reduced between I-time & S-time If Wx often changed little between I-time & S-time, why the rate reset? NTMO interview: Rates often implemented higher than perceived achievable to ensure initial AFP “buy-in” – customers prefer “wait-and-see” approach

21. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 21 Robinson 6/11/2008 Meteorological Factors Correlated with AFP Rate Settings R(MaxWx) by AFP MaxWx Organization Line Clusters EmbeddedUnorg Cell 69 (9 AFPs) 73 (3 AFPs) 80 (1 AFPs) 82 (6 AFPs) Organized Unorganized 70 (12 AFPs) 81 (7 AFPs) R(MaxWx) by AFP MaxWx Location West E ZOBZNY 83 (2 AFPs) 79 (4 AFPs) 71 (13 AFPs) MaxWx occurred within ZNY on 68% of A05 days - Rate reduction with Wx in ZNY reflects increased airspace limitations AFP rates account for increased constraints with more organized weather events

22. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 22 Robinson 6/11/2008 Findings Without objective support in establishing AFP rates, difficult to sufficiently restrict AFP throughput and ensure “buy-in” from NAS customers –Rates often lowered over course of the event –Frequent use of GDP/GS on top of AFPs In the majority of FCAA05 programs, the most severe weather occurred in ZNY AFP rate decisions suggest awareness of variations in capacity impacts given expectations for weather severity, forecast certainty, and impact region…. Modest rate differences observed for higher vs. lower impact events

23. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 23 Robinson 6/11/2008 Objective Model for Achievable AFP Rates -10 min +10 min +20 min 0 min FCAA05 Time Horizons Fair weather rate estimated using traffic counts on 3 non-weather days CIWS precipitation and echo tops products used to calculate blockage on routes through AFP boundary Worst case blockage for upstream or downstream weather is assigned Baseline rate reduced proportionally to blockage integrated over relevant routes through the AFP boundary

24. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 24 Robinson 6/11/2008 FCAA05 Model Validation 15 Minute Throughput Reduction Fair Weather Actual TNFRA Model MAX*TNFRA RA<1 RA<0.50 15min Aircraft Throughput RA<1 RA<0.50 A05 End A05 Actual > Model Model overestimates impact AFP over-delivered (?) Actual < Model Model underestimates impact Unused capacity – AFP under-delivered (?) Wx outside AFP area affecting throughput Impacts unrelated to Wx affecting throughput Combination of each 2130 UTC

25. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 25 Robinson 6/11/2008 Outline Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) Analysis of Airspace Flow Program Rates Roadmap for Weather Integration into TFMM

26. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 26 Robinson 6/11/2008 Improving Tactical TFM Decision Making During Convective Weather Integrated weather-TFM decision support to reduce the cognitive workload for traffic managers and ATC Dramatic improvements in ability to modify flight plans (SEVEN and airborne rerouting) Dramatic reductions in multi-facility coordination requirements for individual flight routing decisions Increased attention to human factors issues related with TFM decision making in ARTCCs, TRACONs and ATCTs Develop metrics for effective tactical TFM decision making so that good performance can be recognized and rewarded

27. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 27 Robinson 6/11/2008 Candidate dates for various TFM functional capabilities CATM capabilityPre WP2 2009 Initial WP2 2010-11 Mid WP2 2012-13 Late WP2 2014-15 Post WP2 Enhanced congestion prediction (ECP) CIWS on Traffic Display CIWS on Future Traffic Display RAPT* RAPT ( NY PHL) Tactical AFP forecast En route blockage forecast RAPT (P90, C90) Automated airspace congestion resolution SEVEN CACR phase 1 CACR phase 2 Arrival flow management TMATMA* Departure flow management (DFM) A/DMT DFM TMA/EDC Integrated Time based Flow Management (ITBFM) TMA/EDC SEVEN Post event analysis tool suite Weather analysis for procedures “avoidable” delay analysis RAPT* - forecasts when arrival flows are likely to deviate into departure route airspace P90, C90 – Potomac and Chicago TRACONs TMA* - has enhanced capability to provide useful operational capability in convective weather TMA/EDC– gate-to-gate TMA

28. MIT Lincoln Laboratory Tactical AFP Throughput 28 Robinson 6/11/2008 TFM Capability Dependence on Forecasts and “Translation” Capability En route TerminalRoute blockage Sector occupancy AirportFcst Lead Time (hrs) ECP RAPT AFP rate fcst YYYY YNYN YYYY 0-2 hr 0-2 or 0-8 AACR (SEVEN, CACR phase 2) YYY?YY0-8 hr Arrival manage. (TMA)YYY?Y0-2 hr Departure manage. (DFM, A/DMT, EDC) YYYY ?Y0-2 hr 2-8 hr ? Int. Time Based Flow Management (ITBFM) YYYYY0-8 hr Post event analysis (e.g., “avoidable delay) YYYYYN/A Maturity of model or forecast MLM-LLL0-2 hr M 2-8 hr L Pilot model“Capacity” models Notes: En route includes level, climbing and descending aircraft TFM conceptual issues include: is sector occupancy an adequate characterization in convective weather or, does one also have to insure flow continuity ? Demand projections when airspace is blocked by storms?