1. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service CAMS General Assembly, Athens, 14-16 June 2016 Frédéric Chevallier (LSCE/IPSL) Rona Thompson (NILU) Arjo Segers (TNO) Sander Houweling (SRON) The CAMS greenhouse gas fluxes products

2. 2 CH 4 N2ON2O CO 2 CH 4 = 1990 - … N 2 O = 1996 - … CO 2 = 1979 - … Atmospheric inversions in CAMS

3. 3 CH 4 N2ON2OCO 2 ProvidersTNO + SRONNILU (+LSCE)LSCE Transport modelTM5 (global 3° × 2°, 34 levels)LMDz4 (global 3.75° × 1.875°, 39 levels) MeteorologyECMWF (ERA-interim) Prior fluxesWetlands: Kaplan inventorySoils: OCN v1.0 (land surface model)Natural: climat. model simulation (ORCHIDEE) Anthr.: EDGAR v4.2Indus.+combustion: EDGAR v4.2FT2010 (inventory) Foss.: EDGAR and CDIAC B. burn.: GFED v3.1B. burn.: GFED v4.1sB. Burn.: GFED v4 and v4.1s Ocean: model simulation (PISCES)Ocean: Takahashi et al. (2009) climat. Observations Production stream 1 NOAA surface network (1985 onwards) NOAA, CSIRO, MPI, AGAGE, NIES, ICOS, Tohoku NOAA ESRL CCCG network, RAMCES network, ICOS, WDCGG database. Production stream 2 " + GOSAT sat. obs. (2009+)GOSAT and OCO-2 in the future? Inversion methodVariational Last CO 2 product: 1 month of parallel computation on 370 cores for 37 years (1979-2015 analysis)

4. 4 CH 4 Observations NOAA surface network GOSAT CH 4 columns (production streams 1 and 2) (production stream 2)

5. 5 Inversion processing 200020012002200320042005 2006 Step A: obtain initial conc. low resolution (6×4, L25) 1-year time windows sequential runs (init from model) Step B: target resolution high resolution (3×2, L34) 3-year time windows parallel runs (init from A)

6. 6 CH 4 fluxes 2000-2014 Preliminary results: stream 1 (NOAA only), coarse resolution, inversion per year: (a priori emissions available up to 2008) a-priori average 2000-2004: change on average by the inversion

7. 7 CH 4 inversions - planning 2016 : re-analysis surface-only for 2000-2014 re-analysis incl. GOSAT for 2009-2014 2018 : re-analysis surface-only for 1990-1999 Annual extension to previous year (in Dec.) Service evolution: improved transport simulation updated bias correction for satellite data efficient multi-year re-analysis preparation for Sentinel -5P Olivier Membrive (LMD) AirCore vs TM5 (Sodankylä, 14072014)

8. 8 N 2 O observation network Globally 124 flask and in-situ sites and a number of regular ship and aircraft transects

9. 9 N 2 O global budget Mean for this study: 1996 – 2014 Prior (TgN y -1 )Post. (TgN y -1 ) Source19.1 ± 4.317.2 ± 0.7 Land13.5 ± 4.311.8 ± 1.2 Ocean5.6 ± 1.35.4 ± 1.1 Sink12.2 ± 0.612.0 ± 0.5 Global growth rate (ppb y -1 ) Uncertainties are shown as ±1 σ

10. 10 Mean emissions 1996 to 2014 (gN m -2 y -1 ) Posterior emissions Difference posterior - prior Fractional uncertainty reduction

11. 11 CO 2 measurement location in each year Each selected site reports data over at least 5 years

12. 12 Annual natural CO 2 budgets at large scale, with σ (source = positive)

13. 13 Zooming in

14. 14 Zooming further UNFCCC for LULUCF -1 MtC in 2013 UNFCCC for LULUCF +7 MtC in 2012 σ σ

15. 15 What’s new in 2015 for CO 2 ? CO 2 global growth rate in 2015: NOAA = 3.0 ppm/yr CAMS = 2.9 ppm/yr Corresponding flux anomaly → (late positive emission anomaly)

16. 16 All latest releases shown here will soon be available from http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/. http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/ Thank you for your attention.