1. B. Estrade Storm Surge Forecasting Efforts Brett D. Estrade

2. B. Estrade The goal is to provide timely, accurate information to State emergency managers during storm events. There is currently a University-wide effort to bring together computational scientists and domain experts in order to work towards this goal. This effort is being facilitated, in part by work being done at CCT through the SCOOP project and past work done in the LPFS project. CCT also helps to facilitate the cross disciplinary cooperation required to be successful. LONI provides computional expertise and ensures adequate computational resources are available when the system goes operational. Storm Surge Forecasting

3. B. Estrade Usable results are required within 2 hours of the latest NHC advisory, this includes: –model preparation –mode execution –post processing of model results –creation, distribution of useful products The computing resources need to be in place before the storm, so that the system can be thoroughly tested. Once a system is in place, a lot of testing and practice is required to make sure the system works when needed. It also helps to have back up systems ready to go. Operational Issues Involved

4. B. Estrade Domain science researches ways to improve the accuracy of the models and the numerical methods utilized, and this helps improve the accuracy of the operational system. Emergency allocation of computing resources is required, and this called preemptive computing; currently, this is done manually. The validation of data and tuning the model based on results (dynamic data driven application, data assimilation) is a goal capability of SCOOP, but has not yet been introduced into the operational system. Other issues involved include improving the parallel efficiency of the models used, such as ADCIRC. The operational system is not research oriented, and is built with the primary goals related to emergency storm surge forecasting system in mind. Research Issues Involved

5. B. Estrade LPFS stand for, “Lake Pontchartrain Forecasting System”. LPFS is collaboration of CCT, LONI, UNC, and the US Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) in New Orleans. LPFS is a system used by USACE to help determine storm surge at 3 of New Orleans' drainage canals: –17 th Street Canal; Orleans Ave. Canal; London Ave. Canal LPFS produces a storm surge forecast at the heads of 3 canals given a NHC consensus hurricane track forecast plus 4 variations. LPFS utilized the IBM p5 575, “Neptune”, located at here at UNO, during the 2007 hurricane season. Project Highlight: LPFS

6. B. Estrade LONI Resources

7. B. Estrade LPFS System Overview LPFS is an ensemble of 5 parallel ADCIRC simulations running on the Louisiana Optical Network Initiative's (LONI) state-wide resources. LPFS may run in a continuous way for the duration of a particular storm once it is initiated. Automated alerts can be sent out at key points in the process and during specified events via various means – email, sms, and instant messenger. Distributed LPFS is implemented such that no components need to reside on the same machine; additionally, redundant components could easily be used to arbitrarily increase the fault tolerance of the system. This allows for the determination of the reliability of this system with in some confidence.

8. B. Estrade LPFS Distributed Implementation

9. B. Estrade ADCIRC – Modeling Storm Surge ADCIRC is a finite element coastal ocean model. It uses Generalized Wave Continuity Equation (GWCE) to solve for elevations about the geode (sea level). It uses the Momentum Equation to solve for the u and v components of water circulation velocities. It uses Continuous Galerkin Finite Element Methods, which are nodal based. Parallel ADCIRC is Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) & uses MPI; scaling is linear up to some point where communication overhead dominates (~3-5000 nodes/cpu). The domain mesh and input data are decomposed prior to program execution. ADCIRC Website: http://www.adcirc.org

10. B. Estrade The Corp's Dilemma 3 major canals used to rid the city of water during heavy rains serve as a conduit for lake water to flow into the city during tropical events as evidenced by Katrina. The current solution to close the canals during a tropical event requires a 6 hour effort and the use of tall cranes, which are affected by high winds. Closing the canals reduces each canal's effectiveness by a great amount because it requires the use of pumps to move the water over the gates into the swollen lake. A timely decision must be made wrt high winds and a reduced drainage capacity.

11. B. Estrade A View of the Canals compliments of CCT's Viz Group N

12. B. Estrade How Does LPFS Help? LPFS provides easy to read graphs of how each of the 3 locations are affected by the 5 different tracks: –Storm surge (i.e., elevation above sea level) –Wind speeds Due to the availability of dedicated LONI resources during high and severe alerts, results are provided in a timely manner – within 2 hours of an NHC track forecast.

13. B. Estrade The General LPFS Scenario A tropical event is detected well outside of New Orleans; an LPFS admin sets the current alert level from Green to Yellow via a portal interface; –Alerts go out via email, instant messenger, and SMS to all personnel. –LPFS admins coordinate LONI resources, and begin preparing to activate the LPFS system. The NHC forecast places the track of the hurricane within 540 nm of New Orleans, and the current alert level is set from Yellow to Orange automatically; –Alerts go out via email, instant messenger, and SMS to all personnel. –LPFS admins begin running the system regularly for each new NHC advisory using LONI resources under the PRIORITY queue; –USACE personnel are notified of new storm surge forecasts via email/IM/SMS within 2 hours of each NHC advisor y. NHC forecast places the track of the hurricane within 270 nm of New Orleans, and the current alert level is set from Orange to Red automatically –Alerts go out via email/IM/SMS to all personnel. –LPFS now utilizes LONI resources in a the PREEMPTIVE queue, which is a dedicated resource mode. –USACE personnel are notified of results as they are readied.

14. B. Estrade LPFS Input – Hurricane Tracks 1.NHC Consensus 2.20% Faster Winds 3.20% Slower Winds 4.Veer Right of Cone 5.Veer Left of Cone

15. B. Estrade LPFS Output – Wind & Elevation

16. B. Estrade Conclusion About LPFS LPFS' first priority is to serve the needs of USACE and their efforts to protect the New Orleans Metro Area from the Lake's storm surge during a hurricane. LPFS is a positive example of State, Federal, and Academic institutions cooperating in the name of public safety. The distributed LPFS is becoming a good framework to begin investigating many interesting distributed, data driven problems. The LPFS effort has helped an operational store surge forecasting effort get off the ground at LSU.

17. B. Estrade Current and Future Efforts Nearly all technical solutions are ensemble based, meaning multiple tracks are run at once. CCT participates in the SURA Coastal Ocean Observing and Prediction System (SCOOP), with goals of creating a dynamic data driven application framework. A general storm surge forecasting system for the La. coast based on LPFS was made operational for the 2007 season, and is being set up for the 2008 season. A University-wide collaborations among all relevant groups, with a focus on balancing research and operational interests, is being organized.

18. B. Estrade Questions? http://www.cct.lsu.edu http://www.loni.org