1. BRAIN-TRAINS BELGIAN RESEARCH ACTION THROUGH INTERDISCIPLINARY NETWORKS - TRANSVERSAL ASSESSMENT OF INTERMODAL NEW STRATEGIES Frank Troch, Thierry Vanelslander, Sandra Belboom, Angélique Léonard, Sabine Limbourg, Angel Merchan, Martine Mostert, Tom Pauwels, Vidar Stevens, Christa Sys, Christine Tawfik, Koen Verhoest BELSPO project28/09/2015 – Frankfurt 1

2. Agenda 1. Introduction  Project context  Problems statement  Project structure 2. Scenario definition 3. From SWOT to scenarios 4. Results 5. Conclusion 6. Next Steps 2

3. 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 1. Introduction: Project context BRAIN-TRAINS  Belgian Research Action through Interdisciplinary Networks  BRAIN-BE research program  BELgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO)  Interdisciplinary  TRansversal Assessment of Intermodal New Strategies Axis 4: Federal Public Strategies Transition towards more intermodal freight transport  Market, society & policy-making challenges 3

4. 1. Introduction: Problem statement Relative weak usage of rail freight intermodality in Belgium Limited existing quantitative research Develop a blueprint (model) and operational framework Applicable in wider context 4 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

5. 5 1. Introduction: Project structure 5 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

6. 2. Scenario definition Explorative, plausible future developments, consistent Forecasting, predictions Time horizon: 2030 Limited number of parameters, expressed per tkm 6 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

7. 3. From SWOT to scenario Validation methodology: Delphi-technique 3 Phases:  Element selection  Parameter selection  Value determination 7 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

8. 4. Results: final element selection 8 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

9. 4. Results: reference scenario 9 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

10. 10 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

11. 4. Results: best-case scenario 11 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

12. 4. Results: worst-case scenario 12 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

13. 4. Results: medium-case scenario 13 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

14. 5. Conclusion Intermodal transport in Belgium  Weak usage  Future developments: impact is unclear  European context  Many strengths & opportunities, but also weaknesses & threats to be taken into consideration Research = Building a framework to…  Indicate criteria and conditions for success story  Guide decision process  Measure future impact of decisions Challenge = data collection 14 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

15. 6. Next Steps Modelling of each scenario in each work package (2015-2017) Indicators and framework development (2017-2018) 15 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

16. Thank you for your attention. Questions? BRAIN-TRAINS BELSPO project 28/09/2015 – Frankfurt 16