1. National Institute of Economic and Social Research Immigration, the EU and the referendum Jonathan Portes, NIESR & UK in a Changing Europe June 2016

2. National Institute of Economic and Social Research Then and now: 1975 and 2015 Source: British Election Study “Do you think that too many immigrants have been let into this country, or not?”

3. National Institute of Economic and Social Research

4. Impacts – what do we know Have made already flexible UK labour market more so, especially in some sectors; No impact on UK workers employment prospects: small impact on wages concentrated at low end Small positive impact on public finances in both short and long term “benefit tourism” is a myth & overall EU migrants less dependent than average on welfare state; but do claim tax credits Probably some upward pressure on house prices No evidence of any widespread negative impacts on public services, although local pressure

5. National Institute of Economic and Social Research Recent migration statistics Content

6. National Institute of Economic and Social Research Referendum impacts Vote to Remain is vote for status quo: free movement. Will settle free movement issue but political & policy dilemmas remain: Leaves government migration target in limbo Continued conflict between economic and political objectives Leave gives flexibility, but doesn’t avoid hard choices; demand for migrant labour buoyant. 2 broad options: Restrictive: sharp reductions in EU migration combined with existing or tighter restrictions in non-EU. Could lead to substantial reductions in migration, but resulting economic damage could be severe Liberal: balance reductions in EU migration with more liberal approach to non-EU. Could mitigate or even reverse economic damage: but would still mean historically very high migration levels

7. National Institute of Economic and Social Research Immigration, the EU and the referendum Jonathan Portes, NIESR & UK in a Changing Europe June 2016