1. Coastal Development

2. Page Project The Numbers: Global Factors 39% of the world population resides within 100 km of the coast Coastal areas account for only 20% of all land area In many countries, population growth in coastal zones is double that of the national average population growth 23 cities are expected to have more than 10 million inhabitants by 2015 – 18 of these are coastal With the exception of Tokyo, New York, Los Angeles, and Osaka, all coastal megacities are in developing countries

3. Page Project The Numbers: U.S.A. 53% of the U.S. population resides within 80 km of the ocean or Great Lakes Coastal areas account for only 17% of the contiguous land area In the U.S. coastal population growth is keeping pace with the national average population growth It is not population growth that is impacting U.S. coastal resources but rather population density Coastal population densities average 300 persons/sq. mile (national average is 98 persons/ sq. mile Fastest rate of change in coastal areas: California, Florida, Texas

4. Page Project The Attraction Coastal zones contain a wealth of natural and economic resources Provide many goods and services that support a range of socio-economic activities I.e. tourism, recreation, fisheries, aquaculture, mining, industry, and transportation

5. Page Project The Down-Side Population increase and coastal development may result in the loss of critical habitat, green space, and biodiversity Coastal zones are more vulnerable to pollution, habitat degradation, overfishing, invasive species, and increased coastal hazards (beach erosion, hurricane damage and global warming Overexploitation of one particular good or service can inhibit the provision of goods or services that are valued less financially or which enable the system to self-regulate

6. Page Project PAGE Project Analysis Student groups will be assigned a section of the Pilot Analysis Global Ecosystems: Coastal Ecosystems report to analysis Students will evaluate their topic and determine priority issues Final project will be a poster highlighting group findings Posters will be presented in class (graded as a quiz grade) Students will complete group evaluation forms & pose questions to other groups as part of their overall grade

7. Page Project Effects of Climate Change Climate factorDirectionBiogeophysical effects Global sea levelPositiveInundation and displacement of wetlands and lowlands; coastal erosion; increased storm flooding and damage; salinisation; rising water tables; impeded drainage Seawater temperaturePositiveIncreased coral bleaching; increased algal blooms; migration of coastal species to higher latitudes; decreased incidence of sea ice at higher latitudes Precipitation intensityPositiveIncreased flood risk in coastal lowlands

8. Page Project Effects of Climate Change: cont Climate factorDirectionBiogeophysical effects Wave climateUnknownChanged cross-shore and longshore sediment transport, and hence patterns of erosion and accretion Storm frequencyRegional variation Changed occurrence of storm flooding and damage River runoffRegional variation Changed sediment supply from rivers to the coast Atmospheric CO 2 PositiveIncreased productivity in coastal ecosystems

9. Page Project

10. Sea-Level Changes: 2000 -2500

11. Page Project Potential Impacts of Sea-Level Rise Biogeophysical effect Sector Flood frequency Erosion Inunda- tion Rising water tables Salt- water intrusion Biological effects Water resources  Agriculture  Human health  Fisheries  Tourism  Human settlements 

12. Page Project Potential Impacts of Sea-Level Changes: cont http://www.net.org/warming/animations/Miami.mov http://www.net.org/warming/animations/NYC.mov http://www.net.org/warming/animations/DC.mov http://www.net.org/warming/Climb_Boston_study.m ovhttp://www.net.org/warming/Climb_Boston_study.m ov Animations based on an average increase in sea-level of 25 inches over 100 years

13. Page Project People at Risk for Flooding 0 20 40 60 People flooded in 2050 (millions/yr) No sea-level rise Unmitigated emissions Kyoto Protocol 20% emissions reduction 30% emissions reduction

14. Page Project What Can Be Done? (to manage coastal zones) 1)Protect: decrease probability of occurrence of disaster (i.e. build seawalls and dikes) 2) Retreat: limit potential effects by establishing set-back zones and relocating threatened buildings 3) Accommodate: mandate emergency plans, modify land use, co-ordinate with all players