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New tools to relate imagery with in-situ and modeling data and their application to space-weather forecasting Alexis P. Rouillard 1,2 D. Odstrcil 3, B.Lavraud.

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Presentation on theme: "New tools to relate imagery with in-situ and modeling data and their application to space-weather forecasting Alexis P. Rouillard 1,2 D. Odstrcil 3, B.Lavraud."— Presentation transcript:

1 New tools to relate imagery with in-situ and modeling data and their application to space-weather forecasting Alexis P. Rouillard 1,2 D. Odstrcil 3, B.Lavraud 1, F. Pitout 1 ; V. Genot 2, team CDPP 2 1. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UMR 5187, Toulouse, France 2. IRAP, UPS, Toulouse III, Toulouse 3. George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 太阳

2 fast plasma slow plasma Sun shock sheath fast plasma slow plasma Sun accumulated plasma expansion flux rope a)b)c) Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 Rouillard (2011)

3 Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 Odstrcil and Pizzo 1999

4 Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 2012 July 23rd CME: a monster CME - 3000km s -1 -directed just off Sun- STA line -propagated in high-speed stream -transited to STA in 18hrs -Carried >100nT magnetic field Rouillard and Odstrcil 2013

5 Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 2012 July 23rd CME: a monster CME - 3000km s -1 -directed just off Sun- STA line -propagated in high-speed stream -transited to STA in 18hrs -Carried >100nT magnetic field Rouillard and Odstrcil 2013

6 Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 Rouillard and Odstrcil 2013

7 Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 Sheeley and Rouillard (2010) Rouillard et al. (2011)

8 Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 Odstrcil and Pizzo (2009)

9 Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 Odstrcil and Rouillard (2013)

10 Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 GONG - WSA MDI - WSA COR1-A

11 Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 GONG - WSA MDI - WSA COR1-A

12 J-map In–Situ Tool Radial Propagation J-map In Situ J-map Fit J-map Click Corotation SEP propagation YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS t2t2 t1t1 AMDA plot at STEREO-B for t’ AMDA plot at STEREO-B for t’ MEDOC Interface MEDOC Interface START: Wind t t V V β β δ δ 0 72 hr 24 48 0 1 AU 0.3 0.6 Wind location: Start point: End point: AMDA plot at STEREO-B for t’ AMDA plot at STEREO-B for t’ Δφ CME Show timetables of spacecraft elongation crossings CARRINGTON MAP Extent t1t1 t2t2 STEREO-B Venus Earth t’ E’E’ E’E’ R’ t’ t t SECCHI-B SECCHI-A

13 J-map In–Situ Tool Radial Propagation J-map In Situ J-map Fit J-map Click Corotation SEP propagation YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS t2t2 t1t1 AMDA plot at STEREO-B for t’ AMDA plot at STEREO-B for t’ MEDOC Interface MEDOC Interface t1t1 t2t2 STEREO-B Venus Earth t’ E’E’ E’E’ R’ 0 72 hr 24 48 0 1 AU 0.3 0.6 End point: AMDA plot at STEREO-B for t’ AMDA plot at STEREO-B for t’ t’ t t SECCHI-B SECCHI-A 90 o -90 o 0 o 360 o 180 o STEREO-A CME extent CR2023 STEREO-A 193A CME source Show timetables of spacecraft elongation crossings V plot at Wind φ CME Δφ CME Source Extent V CME Speed

14 J-map Catalogue Tool Radial Propagation J-map In Situ J-map Fit Catalogue J-map Click Corotation SEP propagation YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS t2t2 t1t1 AMDA plot at STEREO-B for t’ AMDA plot at STEREO-B for t’ MEDOC Interface MEDOC Interface t1t1 STEREO-B SECCHI-B SECCHI-A Venus 0 72 hr 24 48 0 1 AU 0.3 0.6 End point t’ IRAP CMEs RAL CMEs RAL CMEs IRAP CIRs t2t2 t’ E’E’ E’E’ R’ Show timetables of spacecraft elongation crossings β β δ δ V V Track prop. Wind 90 o -90 o 0 o 360 o 180 o STEREO-A CME extent CR2023 STEREO-A 193A CME source Δφ CME Extent CARRINGTON MAP

15 Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 Conclusion: -White-light images can not only help constrain CME properties but also the background solar wind: -coronagraphic observations to validate modeling of the streamer belt -solar wind iamging (HI) to validate modling of the stream structure - IRAP is developping a web-based tool to access J-maps and catalogues of CME/CIR fits CATALOGUES OF CMEs/CIRs observed in white-light ARE SERIOUSLY LACKING This is slowing down progress in solar wind studies using HI images -The IRAP tool will allow users to go from imagery to in-situ data and from the Sun to 1AU -The IRAP propagation tool will have a beacon mode integrating all synoptic data for space-weather prediction.

16 fast plasma slow plasma Sun shock sheath fast plasma slow plasma Sun accumulated plasma expansion flux rope a)b)c) Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 Rouillard (2011)

17 Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 Wood et al. 2010

18 Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 Odstrcil and Rouillard 2013

19 Rouillard et al. (2011c)

20 21UT: 2 hours before SEP onset Ninth European Space Weather Week – Brussels, Nov. 2012 Rouillard et al. (2011b)

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