1. Joint Research Centre the European Commission's in-house science service Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation Measuring the size of the EU Bioeconomy Emilio Rodriguez-Cerezo Claudia Parisi Manuel Gómez-Barbero ICABR 2016, Ravello, Italy

2. What does the EU understand as Bioeconomy? "The Bioeconomy […] encompasses the production of renewable biological resources and the conversion of these resources and waste streams into value added products, such as food, feed, bio-based products and bioenergy" (European Commission Communication 2012) http://ec.europa.eu/research/bioeconomy/policy/strategy_ en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/research/bioeconomy/policy/strategy_ en.htm

4. Our research priorities as an Agricultural Economics Unit Current and future agricultural feedstock use for the new bioeconomy, impacts of new bioeconomy sectors in agricultural markets, land use etc (models) Liquid biofuels (included in our modelling framework and currently a significant user of agricultural feedstock) Bio-based chemicals/materials (a much lower user of agricultural feedstocks?, but we need understand its potential demand)

5. Agricultural Feedstocks FOOD & FEED ENERGY INDUSTRY Liquid Biofuels Bio-based chemicals & products

6. Feedstock use Bioethanol EU Production Capacity2016 Number of Refineries71 Capacity (million liters)8,480 Capacity Use (%)62 Feedstock Use (1,000 MT) Wheat3,260 Corn5,478 Barley598 Rye846 Sugar Beet12,019

7. Feedstock use Biodiesel EU Production Capacity2016 Number of Refineries248 Capacity (million liters)25,256 Capacity Use (%)49.9 Feedstock Use (1,000 MT) Rapeseed oil5,970 Recycled vegetable oils (UCO)1,670 Palm oil1,620 Soybean oil855 Animal fats485 Sunflower oil290 Other (pine oil)190

8. Share of biofuel feedstock use of some commodities Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development (draft baseline)

9. Sectors of the Bioeconomy FOOD & FEED ENERGY INDUSTRIAL MATERIAL USE Liquid Biofuels Bio-based chemicals & materials 9

11. Page 11 EU organic chemistry sector: feedstock use derivatives total: 78.7 mill. tonnes Volume in 1,000 tonnes – material (feedstock) use only EU chemical industry, 2014

12. Page 12 Breakdown bio-based feedstock used in EU organic chemistry sector Renewables volume in 1,000 tonnes. EU chemical industry, 2014 for ETBE Vegetable waxes, natural resins, tanning agents, proteins, medicinal plants

13. Agricultural feedstock use in the EU Bioeconomy EU biofuels industry: large, significant demand of starch (cereals mainly) and sugarbeet for bioethanol production and plant/animal oil/fats crops for biodiesel production. Currently insignificant cellulosic use. We are able to model evolution. New EU bio-based chemistry: currently small, and difficult to quantify its evolution (no mandate). Current feedstocks cereals and sugar crops, animal/vegetable fats and cellulosic crops (paper pulp). Reserach on-going to incorporate this sector in agro-economic models.

16. Scope EU companies, defined as those producing a turnover or employing labour in the EU and may have production facilities not only in the EU but elsewhere as well. Bio-based chemicals and composites from a list agreed with experts during several consultations. Outside of the scope: Traditional and mature industries/products (pulp and paper, traditional textiles, etc.) Liquid biofuels, energy, power Pharmaceuticals Food/feed additives Finished goods/products derived from the bio-based products.

18. Location of EU chemical clusters Location of the production facilities of the 133 bio-based companies

19. Products for which the number of producers is growing by 2020 and new products Bio-based products New producers 2020 Organic acids 2,5-Furandicarboxylic acid (FDCA)3 Levulinic acid3 Succinic acid2 Adipic acid2 Furfural2 Other3 Alcohols n-butanol3 Propylene glycol3 1,3-Propanediol (PDO)2 1,4-Butanediol (BDO)2 Polymers (from natural polymers) Starch polymers, inc. composites3 Other4 Polymers (from monomers) Polybutylene succinate (PBS)4 Polyhydroyalkanoates (PHAs), inc. PHB3 Polylactic acid (PLA)2 Bio-based products New producers 2020 Composites Wood-plastic composites (WPC)2 Other natural fibre reinforced plastics6 Surfactants Polymeric surfactants2 Glycolipids, inc. sophorolipids2 Paints/coatings Paint additives2 Other bio-based products Hydroxymethyl-furfural (HMF)4 Ethylene glycol3 Ethylene2 Bio-based products New producers 2020 Organic acids 2,5-Furandicarboxylic acid (FDCA)3 Levulinic acid3 Succinic acid2 Adipic acid2 Furfural2 Other3 Alcohols n-butanol3 Propylene glycol3 1,3-Propanediol (PDO)2 1,4-Butanediol (BDO)2 Polymers (from natural polymers) Starch polymers, inc. composites3 Other4 Polymers (from monomers) Polybutylene succinate (PBS)4 Polyhydroyalkanoates (PHAs), inc. PHB3 Polylactic acid (PLA)2 Bio-based products New producers 2020 Composites Wood-plastic composites (WPC)2 Other natural fibre reinforced plastics6 Surfactants Polymeric surfactants2 Glycolipids, inc. sophorolipids2 Paints/coatings Paint additives2 Other bio-based products Hydroxymethyl-furfural (HMF)4 Ethylene glycol3 Ethylene2

20. Location of production plants of EU companies (within and outside the EU)

21. Annual output of bio-based products in the EU (Index = 100 in 2010) Average trend per group of companies: 72% of respondents expect the share of bio-based output sold in the EU to increase by 2020

22. Trends of total annual turnover of bio-based products in the EU (Index = 100 in 2010) 89% of respondents expect the total sales turnover of bio-based products in the EU to increase by 2020 Average trend per group of companies:

23. Average cost distribution for companies over the period 2010-2013

24. Type of biomass feedstock used Origin Origin: in average, 70% of the bio-based feedstock used is sourced from within the EU

25. Main drivers related to the development of bio-based products in their companies

26. Main constraints related to the development of bio-based products in their companies

27. Conclusions Agricultural feedstock demand from new bioeconomy sectors (EU bio- based chemistry) still much lower than biofuels. Mostly 1 st gen: sugar, starch or oil-based feedstocks (except specific cellulose pulp based chemicals) and mostly EU sourced Environmental positioning of large companies (packaging) may shape future demand Validated database 133 EU companies producing bio-based chemicals & composites. Location in main chemical industry focus points in Europe & outside EU. Substantial part of EU demand may be produced outside Europe. The size of the EU bio-based industry is expected to increase by 2020 (number of companies, number of products, type of products, feedstock use, share of the total feedstock, bio-based products sold).

28. Thank you for your attention emilio.rodriguez-cerezo@ec.europa.eu Joint Research Centre Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation