1. GLA OLDER PERSONS RESEARCH PROJECT HOUSING LIN 8 th February 2012 Kathleen Dunmore Janet Sutherland NB: This presentation was given in February 2012. The numbers for demand and shortfall are changing regularly as new and better data from GLA are input.

2. Research brief A ‘think piece’ to look specifically at the role of the planning system in helping to ensure that older Londoners have a genuine choice of homes that they can afford and which meet their requirements for different sizes and types of dwellings in the highest quality environments. In particular the project aims to: – better understand the specialist housing needs and demands of older people in London, now and in the future. – gain a better appreciation of the different types of accommodation currently available to older people and how these might evolve in the future. – bring together these supply and requirement assessments to provide a broad indication of current and future net requirements.

3. Definitions What definitions do you use? Do they differ between housing and planning policies? Do you have policies specifically related to older persons housing? Do you monitor provision – of all older persons housing or just affordable housing? Older persons 0ver 65/retired Over 75 Over 85 Older persons housing C2 accommodation Extracare Sheltered Downsizer properties

4. London’s aging population Population aged 65 and over rises from - 11.4% of total in 2011 - 13.5% in 2030 The number of older Londoners rises by 37% - 1% pa Over 85s rise from 132,000 to 212,000 (+60%) 2% pa Also increase in 65-69s (working old?) Source POPPI

5. Under-occupancy among over 50s By age 50 70% of owner- occupiers are under- occupying a family property More than two-thirds of all households who are under- occupying housing are home owners But- what housing choices do they have and can they afford to move? Source: 2001 census

6. To downsize or not to downsize Propensity to move is a function of P = LC x PL x LOC Local choice (LC): (availability of suitable options x price differential) + distance + move costs Personal lifestyle (PL): amount of clutter to sort + (temperament x number of people involved + refusal to age of one or more parties x active support to family) Level of crisis (LOC): bereavement, increased frailty, robbery x active support from family (Source Bob Line wwwblinehousing.info)

7. Demand vs supply of specialist accommodation Current occupancy of specialist accommodation London 54,000 units Potential demand 10-17% of older households If 15% of over 75s and 2.5% of 65-74s live in specialist accommodation – London needs 55,000 units now – and 80,000 by 2030

8. Housing Supply Total provision 54,000 units

9. Tenure mix Tenure mix by age Two thirds of older Londoners are home owners Varies between 35% in Hackney and 85% in Bexley and Havering Supply 18% market provision across London Highest provision (%) Bexley (43%) Redbridge (42%) Bromley, Barnet, Enfield, Harrow and Havering (31-35%) Lowest provision (%) Southwark, Camden, Hammersmith, Hackney, Lambeth, Westminster, Islington, Newham, City of London, Wandsworth (0-5%) Source ONS Integrated Household Survey 2009/10

10. Changing patterns of supply Supply Up Havering Lambeth Westminster Newham Tower Hamlets Kingston Redbridge Sutton K+C Wandsworth Supply Down Southwark Hillingdon Harrow Camden Lewisham Waltham Forest Hounslow Islington Richmond Source EAC

11. Model building and validation Interrogate key data sources on demand and supply POPPI/GLA popn data EAC/NHBC/LDD SHMAs/lit review English Housing Survey Informed by findings from email survey Verify with stakeholder workshops Modelling with sensitivity tests – London wide and Borough level – User friendly presentation with graphics – An interrogatable model

12. No of older households by age and frailty Demand for retirement housing and other forms of older persons housing Supply of alternative housing options by tenure Propensity to move and type of housing sought Affordability (based on existing tenure) Relets of existing housing by tenur e Newbuild supply required

13. Emerging conclusions supply and demand Existing shortfall of older persons’ housing units will worsen unless action is taken to increase newbuild supply. Apparent surplus of affordable rented units - BUT – most of it elderly and some not fit for purpose. Significant shortfall of owner occupied and shared ownership/shared equity accommodation and care beds. Variation between Boroughs BUT a note of caution Model outputs very dependent on assumptions about –Propensity to move –Affordability and tenure –Condition of affordable stock More robust data is needed Don’t forget downsizing