1. Now and in the Future: Methods for the Study of Risky Behaviors Isaac J. Washburn Ph.D.

2. Learning Objectives  Understand the often unique nature of measuring risky behaviors  Understand how we collect our data impacts how we are able to talk about risky behaviors  Learn how we can gear our research to better translate into policy

3. The Problem  Risky Behaviors can be difficult to measure  Often an infrequent behavior in our population  Often an infrequent behavior for an individual  Often a socially undesirable behavior  Often several behaviors are combined  Story: High School Lockers

4. The Solution  The Simple Answer  We all need to go study chemistry or maybe business, I hear they make good money over in business  The Long Answer  The old way of doing research is not enough (Still Important)  We need new* ways of collecting data  We need new ways of measuring data  We need new ways of analyzing data  We need new ways of presenting data  *New to us at least

5. Collecting Data  Reach  We need creative ways to reach our population  Muslim Student Group and Dating Research  Bar Studies(Croff & Clapp, 2015)  HIV Risk(Warren et al., 2015)  Active vs Passive Consent (Chao et al., Under Review)

6. Collecting Data Continued  Time  We need to do a better job collecting over time  30 years of data(Washburn & Capaldi, 2015)  24 days of data(Kerr, Washburn, Morris, Lewis, & Tiberio, 2015)  Retention  We need to do a better job keeping our participants  30 years of data with 90% retention

7. Measuring Data  We are not normal and that is ok  Rarely are risky behaviors normally distributed (Assumptions)  Types of measurement  Logit  Suicide attempt  (Kerr & Capaldi, 2011)  Multinomial  Reasons for condom use  Zero-inflated  Age at first use  Two-part semi-continuous  Marijuana use  (Washburn & Capaldi, 2014)

8. Measuring Data Continued  Asking the right amount of the right questions at the right time  Pilot not just the questions but the process  FTOP literacy  How many questions are enough  Reflexive measurement  Formative measurement

9. Analyzing Data  Theory + Data Collection + Measurement = Analysis Plan + ε  ε is our ability to move backward in this equation  Mixture Modeling – Marijuana use in the 20s (Washburn & Capaldi, 2015)  More often this equation holds the way it is  Multilevel modeling – S.A.D Analysis (Kerr et al., 2013)  Survival analysis - High-school dropout

10. Presenting Data  Who reads journal articles anymore?  I mean other than when you have to write an introduction!  If our science is going to make an impact WE have to PICK our AUDIENCE  Participatory action research – OAYS, Juntos  Clinical – Intimate Partner Violence  Policy – Co-parenting classes  Takes more work –  College sex and substance use  Studies by Oregon researchers hint that mild pot-induced paranoia may have a public health benefit Studies by Oregon researchers hint that mild pot-induced paranoia may have a public health benefit

11. Family Resilience  re·sil·ience - noun 1. the ability of a substance or object to spring back into shape; elasticity. 2. the capacity to recover quickly from difficulties; toughness.  Risky behaviors is an important part of resilience  It is what we are resilient from!  We seek to prevent risky behaviors  And help those that are engaging in them

12. References  Croff, J. M., & Clapp, J. D. (2015). Modifying Heathcare System Alcohol Interventions for the High-Risk Drinking Environment: Theory in Practice. Journal of Alcohol & Drug Education, 59(1), 39.  Kerr, D. C., & Capaldi, D. M. (2011). Young men's intimate partner violence and relationship functioning: long-term outcomes associated with suicide attempt and aggression in adolescence. Psychological Medicine, 41(04), 759-769.  Kerr, D. C. R., Shaman, J., Washburn, I. J., Vuchinich, S., Neppl, T. K., Capaldi, D. M., & Conger, R. D. (2013). Two longterm studies of seasonal variation in depressive symptoms among community participants. Journal of Affective Disorders, 151(3), 837-842. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2013.07.019  Kerr, D. C., Washburn, I. J., Morris, M. K., Lewis, K. A., & Tiberio, S. S. (2015). Event-Level Associations of Marijuana and Heavy Alcohol Use With Intercourse and Condom Use. Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, 76(5), 733-737.  Warren, J. T., Harvey, S. M., Washburn, I. J., Sanchez, D. M., Schoenbach, V. J., & Agnew, C. R. (2015). Concurrent Sexual Partnerships Among Young Heterosexual Adults at Increased HIV Risk: Types and Characteristics. Sexually transmitted diseases, 42(4), 180-184.  Washburn, I. J., & Capaldi, D. M. (2014). Influences on boys' marijuana use in high school: A two-part random intercept growth model. Journal of Research on Adolescence, 24(1), 117- 130.  Washburn, I. J., & Capaldi, D. M. (2015). Heterogeneity in men's marijuana use in the 20s: Adolescent antecedents and consequences in the 30s. Development and Psychopathology, 27, 279-291.