1. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation Urban Climate Information: Usefulness for Planning Practice at present and in Times of Climate Change NACLIM / Workshop Towards URBAN CLIMATE SERVICES 21./22.06.2016 Vleva Building, Kortenberglaan 71, 1000 Brussels Jörn Welsch, SenStadtUm joern.welsch@senstadtum.berlin.de Fehrbelliner Platz 1, 10707 Berlin

2. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 1 Berlin’s actual challenge towards Urban growth Climate Information as a basis of valuation in Urban Planning processes Motivation to join the project and expectations with regard to the project Results of NACLIM scenarios Integration into Berlin’s climate change adaptation efforts Values / limits (so far) of NACLIM results to support the official projects Outline:

3. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 2 building areas 43.6 % forests 18.0 % traffic area 15.2 % open space 11.6 % agriculture 4.9 % rivers and lakes 6.7 % Area 890 km² The City of Berlin building areas 43.6 % forests 18.0 % traffic area 15.2 % open space 11.6 % agriculture 4.9 % rivers and lakes 6.7 % Population 3.6 million as of June 2016

4. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 3 Population dynamics Population pyramid age structure as of 2011 and 2030 Berlin’s population will on the one hand grow older and at the same time increase in total to an amount of 3.9 million until 2030. The current expand is very dynamic. In the last 5 years a significant increase by about 220.000 people was registered. Actually this growth is additionally influenced by the influx of refugees. It’s planned to construct up to 20.000 apartments per year in the next decade.

5. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 4 Political guideline: public and private house building 12 new quarters and…

6. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 5 … and a large number of inner-city agglomeration areas: “New development of inner city housing”

7. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 6 Requirements and guidelines from planners point of view: “ Speeding-up” of planning processes to use disposable areas as much and as fast as possible Availability of actual and differentiated information to undertake environmental impact assessments. Concentration of additional investigations (measurements, application of (climate) models) on essential projects (those which are in the focus of the public or which are the most land consuming development plans)

8. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 7 In this context reliable information of the current and the predicted status of urban climate could be very valuable to support the efforts for comfortable and healthy urban climate conditions now and in the future. This is all the more true as urban climate and the climate change discussion are in the focus of the public and the media.

9. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 8 In Berlin we have a long tradition of dealing with climate issues, beginning in the early 80 th in West- Berlin with measurement-based projects and since the beginning of the 2000 th also with the application of models. All data are available in GIS-format, nowadays more and more via our geoportal-webservices. We provide also an English version of the geoportal.

10. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 9 Expectations:* A fresh overview of scientific results in the field of heat stress indices current and in the future to evaluate bio-climatically burden (to compare with our existing data, as far as this is possible) To close (some of) our knowledge gaps By simulating the effects of a realisation of (all) planned projects - building projects as well as new greenery on different spatial and time scales By integrating local information about social infrastructure (schools, hospitals, kindergarten) By evaluating age structure information of the population on a more detailed level as so far to find more arguments to determine “taboo zones” as well as redevelopment areas in the debate about the best strategy for the “cities future” * Mentioned at first end-user meeting Antwerp, June 13-14., 2013 To enlarge our knowledge concerning predicted climate change effects in Berlin we join the project with specific ……

11. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 10 The cooperation within projects like NACLIM seems to be the most effective way for a win-win situation for all partners: o for the scientists to receive reliable data of a project area and to get feedback from and discussion with end-users o For the end-users possibilities are given to get a fresh overview of scientific results in relevant thematic fields with concern to their daily work In our concrete situation the very useful results from Vito and GIM can support our different projects with scientific information, which would otherwise not be available (because of limited financial means, missing expert knowledge within the administration etc.). The project results can furthermore serve as a comprehensive source for public information via internet.

12. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 11 Results in a geo referenced form of a map are essential for planning purposes, as planners need a spatial reference to localize burdens as well as qualities.

13. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 12 Time period 1986-2005 Examples of relevant results of NACLIM (I) – 3 “heat wave days” basic sc.: Time period 2026-2045 Time period 2081-2100 Remarkable findings: Current situation: about 2,5 - 3 heat wave days per year in the city, - by 2030, the number of heat wave days will be already 3x higher in the city center. - by the end of the century, there will be 10x more heat wave days than now (no change in use or measures regarded)

14. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 13 Examples of relevant results of NACLIM (II) – ”heat wave days” urban planning scenarios: Number of heat wave days 2026-2045: no change in use (left) // under consideration of all urban projects as realized (right) Planning project “Elisabeth-Aue” Corresponding to our new Map of conflict potential between housing demands and climate qualities

15. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 14 Relevant results of NACLIM (III) – vulnerability of the population Current distribution of blocs with a high percentage of people + 65 or - 6 years Average number of heat wave days in combination with the distribution of inhabitants aged + 65 years in 2030

16. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 15 Relevant results of NACLIM (IV) – vulnerability of social infrastructure Also available for other sites: schools 2014 hospitals 2014 elderly stay facilities

17. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 16 The task is now to integrate the NACLIM results into the context of our further activities and results. Conceptual this is easier than with regard to the contents and methodology. This may concern e.g. the selected threshold values to evaluate the heat stress parameters or the dissolved grid cell to calculate the values for the model output. Variations between different approaches lead to different results, especially these differing results may be sometimes also interpreted by planners (without the help of urban climate specialists).

18. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 17 Previous experiences with projects relating to the theme: Map and report presentation via internet to have acces to the data for everyone

19. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 18 Actual activities concerning Berlin’s concept for adaptation to the effects of climate change: Berlin Adaptation Concept AFOK (just finished – PIK et al.) Update of the „Urban Development Plan Climate“ from 2011 “Climate Model Berlin” (simulating the current situation in a very high resolution, published since the end of 2015) NACLIM results as an addition from scientific site. The 3 components of Berlin‘s strategy:

20. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 19 Final presentation for these purposes on July, 19th

21. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 20 Relevant results of NACLIM – next steps to communicate the data Preparing a selection of NACLIM results to be available for everybody at the final presentation via the geoportal with an accompanying explanation in the Environmental Atlas (in operation). It is planned to publish a “special edition” to climate change effects in one of Berlin’s newspapers. We try to integrate NACLIM in this publication. On going discussions of the results with the division “SR KE“ (Climate protection and energy) and other relevant colleagues in our (planning) department.

22. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 21 We will use NACLIM findings to proof our new planning advices framework, e.g. to set new focuses for greening measures in the blocs or streets.

23. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 22 Relevant results of NACLIM – what we expect in the next steps of the project To support our line of arguments concerning enhanced future efforts to adapt to climate change effects we need additional simulations to assess the effectivity of adaptation measures like increasing the albedo of facades or roofs or the greening of private and public space. These simulations are also part of the project and we are curious about these findings.

24. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation 23 The scale of the model as far as it is offered until now (250m*250m) is limited relating to local planning requirements. It is difficult or impossible to dissolve bloc or streets situations. Our own model approach to evaluate the local current climate situation dissolves 10*10 m², but it has no “climate-change- module”. It would considerably lighten the localization of effects or measures, if the scale would be more detailed for urban demands; e.g. that streets can be modelled as independent grids/areas. Advanced wishes for the model developing

25. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment | Division III | Geoinformation Thank you for your attention Further information via: www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.de