1. STEM Cohesion Conference 2011 Jenifer Burden Director, National STEM Centre

2. Twelve months on If we were eighteen... Levers and student choices Wait and see?

3. The engineering sector makes up 20% of the UK economy. Engineering UK, 2011 With 1% of the world’s population we generate 10% of scientific output. Race to the Top, 2007 Manufacturing turned over £502.7 billion in 2008 – the UK is the world’s 6th largest manufacturer. Engineering UK, 2011 Around 58 per cent of net new jobs predicted to appear in the economy between 2007 and 2017 will require employees with STEM skills, equal to 29 per cent of total new and replacement jobs. UKCES, 2010 43% of employers report difficulties recruiting STEM skilled staff. 52% anticipate greater difficulty over next two years. CBI, 2011 SEMTA estimates – the ratio of graduate to technical skilled roles required is 1:2 Juergen Maier, Managing Director, Siemens UK Industry Sector, June 2011 Twelve months on

4. World Trade Organisation, 2010 “BMW cannot make enough cars to satisfy demand. Germany is back to manufacturing levels greater than before the banking crisis. They have a core heartland of manufacturing and a focus on training technicians – they excel in this – and the technician role has high value in society, unlike the UK.” Paul Gobey, CEO E.ON UK, 2010

5. If we were eighteen…

6. 1993 Less than 50% of 16-18 year olds were in full time education 16% in a job with some form of training 13% NEET Approximately 60% of 16-18 year olds were in full time education 9% in a job with some form of training Little change in NEET figures 2008 More choice in qualifications – less in work-related training routes Technical skills are in demand – levers?

7. Levers National Curriculum English Baccalaureate (EBacc) Triple Science, Maths GCSE linked pair Ofsted Academies, Teaching Schools Teachers’ Standards...... ……

8. English Baccalaureate In 2009/10 only 15.6% of Key Stage 4 students would have achieved the EBacc More Year 9 students plan to take EBacc combinations then are doing at Year 10 Over half schools surveyed have changed the courses offered to students, many dropping BTECs Clemens, S. (2011) (Survey across 692 maintained secondary schools)

9. Wenchao, J. Alastair, M. & Sibieta, L. (2011) 80% of Key Stage 4 students derive at least some qualifications through non-GCSE route

10. Students taking BTECs more likely to be from poorer families (FSM students half as likely to be taking Triple Science)

11. Contribution of vocational subjects to 5A*-C Wolf (2011)

12. Vocational course adoption and GCSE improvement

13. League table performance and increase in offer of vocational courses

14. % improvement in A*-C mathematics and increase in vocational courses

15. Vocational game-playing? Suggestive evidence that schools may have been ‘gaming’ the system by moving aggressively to vocational qualifications Basic Skills in Literacy and Numeracy – thousands of students taking these courses gain A*/A in related GCSEs HOWEVER, it could be argued that schools with poorly performing students were also those whose students would gain the most from a shift to vocational courses – rather than leave compulsory education with few or no qualifications

16. “The existence of a default bias strongly cautions schools against presenting the EBacc as a default option for young people. If the EBacc is not the best choice for some pupils, its introduction as a perceived ‘default option’ could damage the welfare of those students who, at the margin, stick with the default instead of choosing courses that better fit their preferences or ability.” Wenchao, J. Alastair, M. & Sibieta, L. (2011)

17. “The existence of a default bias strongly cautions schools against presenting the EBacc as a default option for young people. If the EBacc is not the best choice for some pupils, its introduction as a perceived ‘default option’ could damage the welfare of those students who, at the margin, stick with the default instead of choosing courses that better fit their preferences or ability.” Wenchao, J. Alastair, M. & Sibieta, L. (2011)

18. Choices If a decision is ‘opt out’, people are more likely to go with the status quo Young people underestimate the potential for changing your mind Favourite/least favourite subjects vs usefulness for careers

19. “Young people in England are often unmotivated by the subject; employers have problems recruiting people with sufficient skills. Simply focusing teaching on utilitarian aims rather than the underlying concepts and abstract structures will not achieve even these limited aims. To do so produces students who may learn one or two recipes but who will not be able to transfer this knowledge to progress, or apply it in unfamiliar ways. It also deprives them of the full opportunity for intellectual development which [the subject] can provide and reduces the chance that they will appreciate and enjoy [it] and wish to take it further.” ‘ How both national and individual mathematical needs of 5–19 learners can best be met by a suitable modern curriculum and delivery policy and a corresponding implementation framework.’ Mathematical Needs (ACME, 2011)

20. Curriculum Assessment Pedagogy Policy-makers should ensure that the less easy-to-test aspects of mathematical proficiency are not reduced to procedures in high stakes assessments. The assessment regime should be revised to incorporate all aspects of mathematical knowledge and should encourage proficiency instead of short-term teaching to the test, which hinders understanding. National curriculum – School curriculum

21. Curriculum Assessment Pedagogy Subject-specific values, knowledge and methods of enquiry (including reasoning and application) should be upheld throughout the curriculum, assessment methods and materials, and teaching methods and resources. National curriculum – School curriculum

22. Curriculum Assessment Pedagogy There should be an emphasis on building students’ confidence, and their ability to use mathematics, in a range of familiar and unfamiliar contexts. National curriculum – School curriculum

23. Curriculum Assessment Pedagogy The value of being able to communicate mathematics should be given more prominence as this is an essential skill in employment and HE. National curriculum – School curriculum

24. Curriculum Assessment Pedagogy A wider mathematical curriculum and provision than exists at present should be developed in order to ensure that all young people are well placed to benefit from their studies in mathematics. National curriculum – School curriculum

25. Choices If a decision is ‘opt out’, people are more likely to go with the status quo Young people underestimate the potential for changing your mind Favourite/least favourite subjects vs usefulness for careers Students rely less on peers and parents when IAG is better – there is an association between effective careers education in schools and young people making decisions through a rational model

26. Choice overload: too many options, worse decision making

28. Vocational landscape Complex landscape – over 9,000 qualifications (up from around 2,000 in 2001) Among 16 and 17 year olds about a third are in, or moving in and out of, ‘vocational’ provision which offers no clear progression opportunities 2008-09: 3.2 million enrolments on STEM qualifications in the FE and Skills sector in England Hilary Steedman, London School of Economics; Wolf Review (2011); FE STEM Data Project (2011) Many low level qualifications do not bring income gains. However, many young people progress from vocational qualifications to higher education and employment. In 2009, 11.4% of HE entrants did not hold A-levels.

29. Prescription vs information With high quality careers IAG prescription unnecessary (except where national need is over-riding) 20% of young people report not being able to do all of the courses they wanted to Unintended consequences of the EBacc may exacerbate this FE STEM Data Project – identifying most valuable courses

30. University Technical Colleges

31. Practical work for a technical education

32. Curriculum Staff Physical environment Enhancement & enrichment Leadership Careers

33. Curriculum Staff Physical environment Enhancement & enrichment Leadership Careers

34. Wait and see?