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T RENDS IN N EW M EXICO P OLITICS AND THE P RESIDENTIAL E LECTION P RESENTED BY : B RIAN S ANDEROFF, P RESIDENT.

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Presentation on theme: "T RENDS IN N EW M EXICO P OLITICS AND THE P RESIDENTIAL E LECTION P RESENTED BY : B RIAN S ANDEROFF, P RESIDENT."— Presentation transcript:

1 T RENDS IN N EW M EXICO P OLITICS AND THE P RESIDENTIAL E LECTION P RESENTED BY : B RIAN S ANDEROFF, P RESIDENT

2 N EW M EXICO R EGIONS

3 N EW M EXICO R ACIAL /E THNIC P ROFILE 2015 S OURCE : U.S. C ENSUS B UREAU, 2014 A MERICAN C OMMUNITY S URVEY, 2015 P OPULATION E STIMATES U.S.N.M. N ON -H ISPANIC W HITE 61.6%38.4% H ISPANIC 17.6%48.0% N ATIVE A MERICAN 0.7%8.6% A FRICAN -A MERICAN 12.4%1.9% A SIAN /O THER 7.6%3.0% A MONG H ISPANICS RESIDING IN NM – 84% ARE NATIVE BORN 16% ARE FOREIGN BORN

4 N EW M EXICO H ISPANIC P OPULATION (%) 1990-2015 N EW M EXICO H ISPANIC P OPULATION (%) 1990-2015

5 N EW M EXICO R EGIONS % H ISPANIC

6 N EW M EXICO R EGIONS % N ATIVE A MERICAN N EW M EXICO R EGIONS % N ATIVE A MERICAN

7 N EW M EXICO P OPULATION 1910-2015 2,085,109 2015

8 P OPULATION G ROWTH 2010-2015 N ATURAL I NCREASE +53,203 N ET M IGRATION -27,115 S OURCE : US C ENSUS

9 N EW M EXICO G ROWTH R ATE B Y Y EAR 2010-2015 S OURCE : US C ENSUS

10 NM E MPLOYMENT S ECTORS P RE -R ECESSION 2008 VS J UNE 2016 B IGGEST J OB G AINS & L OSSES *G OVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT FIGURES ARE FROM M AY 2016 TO MITIGATE SEASONAL VARIATION ( I. E. TEACHERS ) P ROFESSIONAL & B USINESS S ERVICES L EISURE & H OSPITALITY

11 S OURCE : C OMMON C AUSE S URVEY 2015 AND 2016 D IRECTION OF N EW M EXICO A MONG R EGISTERED V OTERS D IRECTION OF N EW M EXICO A MONG R EGISTERED V OTERS

12 D EMOCRAT R EPUBLICAN N O P ARTY /O THER S OURCE : NM S ECRETARY OF S TATE NM V OTER R EGISTRATION 1982 VS 2016 NM V OTER R EGISTRATION 1982 VS 2016

13 N EW M EXICO P OLITICAL P ERFORMANCE 2014 G ENERAL E LECTION (A VERAGE OF A LL S TATEWIDE R ACES ) S TRONGLY D EMOCRAT M ODERATELY D EMOCRAT L EANING D EMOCRAT S TRONGLY R EPUBLICAN T OSS UP

14 N EW M EXICO S TATE P OLITICAL D YNAMICS R EPUBLICAN G OVERNOR H OUSE : R EPUBLICAN MAJORITY (37 TO 33) S ENATE : D EMOCRATIC MAJORITY (25 TO 17) (B UT, C ONSERVATIVE L EADERSHIP ) B ALANCE OF POWER SHIFTING TO CONSERVATIVES (A T THE STATE LEVEL ) R EPUBLICANS HAVE MARGINALIZED DEMOCRATIC POWER BY C OALITION BUILDING WITH CONSERVATIVE D EMOCRATS V OTERS ELECTED R EPUBLICAN L AND C OMMISSIONER, C OURT OF A PPEALS J UDGE AND S ECRETARY OF S TATE IN 2014

15 D EMOCRATS R EPUBLICANS D EMOCRAT M ARGIN P OST -E LECTION (2008) (O BAMA W AVE )45 TO 2520 P OST -E LECTION (2010) (A NTI -O BAMA M ID -T ERM W AVE )37 TO 334 P OST E LECTION (2014) (A NTI -O BAMA M ID -T ERM W AVE ) 33 TO 37-4 D EMOCRATS R EPUBLICANS D EMOCRAT M ARGIN P OST -E LECTION (2008) (O BAMA W AVE )27 TO 1512 P OST -E LECTION (2012)25 TO 178 N EW M EXICO S TATE H OUSE N UMBER OF R EPRESENTATIVES BY P ARTY N EW M EXICO S TATE S ENATE N UMBER OF S ENATORS BY P ARTY N ATIONAL L EVEL - 2014 E LECTION O UTCOME D EMOCRATS L OSE 9 US S ENATE S EATS 13 US H OUSE S EATS 11 S TATE L EGISLATIVE C HAMBERS

16 N EW M EXICO S TATE H OUSE P ARTY C OMPOSITION F OLLOWING E ACH E LECTION

17 P ETE D OMENICI R ETIRES 2008 G ENERAL E LECTION R EPUBLICAN P RIMARY G ENERAL E LECTION A LL 3 OF N EW M EXICO ’ S US H OUSE M EMBERS R AN F OR D OMENICI ’ S S EAT H EATHER W ILSON (R) S TEVE P EARCE (R) VS S TEVE P EARCE (R) T OM U DALL (D) VS

18 P OLITICAL I MPACT OF P ETE D OMENICI ’ S R ETIREMENT 4 OF N EW M EXICO ’ S 5 M EMBERS OF C ONGRESS V ACATE T HEIR E XISTING S EATS N EW M EXICO L OSES 62 Y EARS S ENIORITY IN C ONGRESS P ARTISAN M AKEUP OF N EW M EXICO ’ S 5 M EMBERS OF C ONGRESS B EFORE R ETIREMENT A FTER R ETIREMENT D EMOCRAT 24 R EPUBLICAN 31

19 C ONGRESSIONAL D ISTRICT 1 F IVE I NCUMBENTS S INCE 1969 No Incumbent has ever been defeated 1 st Incumbent:Manuel Lujan (R) - Resigned to take cabinet position (1969-1989) 2 nd Incumbent:Steve Schiff (R) - Died in office (1989-1998) 3 rd Incumbent:Heather Wilson (R) - Sought higher office (1999-2008) 4 th Incumbent:Martin Heinrich (D) – Sought higher office (2009-2012) 5 th Incumbent:Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) – (2013-Present)

20 N EW M EXICO M ARGIN OF V ICTORY P RESIDENTIAL E LECTIONS D EMOCRAT R EPUBLICAN W INNING P ARTY

21 M ARGIN OF V ICTORY P RESIDENTIAL E LECTIONS W INNER OF P OPULAR V OTE N.M.U.S. 2012 O BAMA 10.1%3.9% 2008 O BAMA 15.2%7.3% 2004 B USH 0.8%2.5% 2000 G ORE 0.1%0.5% 1996 C LINTON 7.3%8.5% 1992 C LINTON 8.6%5.6%

22 2012 P RESIDENTIAL E LECTION E LECTORAL V OTE R ESULTS D EMOCRAT R EPUBLICAN T OSS UP S OURCE : 270 TO W IN. COM

23 N ATIONAL P OLITICAL M OOD A VERAGE OF R ECENT P OLLS O BAMA A PPROVAL R ATING : C ONGRESSIONAL A PPROVAL R ATING : S OURCE : R EAL C LEAR P OLITICS. COM

24 N ATIONAL R ESULTS - % U NFAVORABLE A VERAGE OF R ECENT P OLLS S OURCE : R EAL C LEAR P OLITICS. COM

25 A RE Y OU V OTING M ORE F OR THE C ANDIDATE Y OU L IKE OR M ORE A GAINST THE O THER C ANDIDATE ? 2016 C LINTON /T RUMP S UPPORTERS 2008 O BAMA /M C C AIN S UPPORTERS S OURCE : F OX N EWS P OLL, A UGUST 2016

26 N ATIONAL R ESULTS - T RUMP VS C LINTON A VERAGE OF R ECENT P OLLS S OURCE : R EAL C LEAR P OLITICS. COM

27 N ATIONAL R ESULTS - 4 W AY A VERAGE OF R ECENT P OLLS S OURCE : R EAL C LEAR P OLITICS. COM

28 2016 P RESIDENTIAL E LECTION M AP D EMOCRAT R EPUBLICAN T OSS UP S OURCE : 270 TO W IN. COM

29 S TATES TO W ATCH – A VERAGE L EAD B ASED ON R ECENT P OLLING R ESULTS C LINTON T RUMP S OURCE : R EAL C LEAR P OLITICS. COM

30 D EMOGRAPHIC S TRENGTHS OF P RESIDENTIAL C ANDIDATES T RUMP S UPPORTERS B LUE C OLLAR M EN R EPUBLICANS W HITES WITHOUT A COLLEGE DEGREE D EEP S OUTH N ORTHERN P LAINS C LINTON S UPPORTERS A FRICAN A MERICANS H ISPANICS N ATIVE A MERICANS (?) D EMOCRATS Y OUNGER V OTERS W EST C OAST N ORTHEAST

31 C LINTON T OSS U P T RUMP R EAL C LEAR P OLITICS 272112154 270 TO W IN. COM 249136153 T HE C OOK P OLITICAL R EPORT 27276190 P ROJECTED E LECTORAL V OTES

32 N EW M EXICO P RESIDENTIAL E LECTIONS : 1992-2012 % OF V OTERS W HO V OTED B EFORE E LECTION D AY

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