1. Tashkent, WB Seminar 19 May 2010 Prof. V.A. Dukhovny Future of water availability and water balance of the Aral Sea Basin to 2030 – impact of climate change and different factors

2. Forecasts of the future in the basin UNESCO’s Vision (J. Bogardi) BAU, agricultural production priority, industrial development priority ASBmm model (Resource Analysis / SIC ICWC) BAU, neutral, optimistic GEF, Project «Water resources management in ASB» Optimistic, national New ASBMM model

3. What can we expect in the future? External destabilizing factors Population growth; Urban growth and increasing industrial needs; Changing crop patterns; Climate change; Low agricultural output prices at the world markets; Increasing energy pressure; Probable growth of water diversions by Afghanistan.

4. Comparison of main parameters in different regional scenarios for 2020 Indicator Optimistic ASBMM Neutral ASBMM BAU ASBMM National GEF UNESCOActual 2007Actual 2008 Irrigated land, thousand ha8504.008451.008008.0011185.008507.0084448516 Irrigated land per person, ha0.160.150.130.180.160.1840.181 Total water use by all sectors91.10101.80109.10145.3093.0105.1888.29 incl. irrigation80.1090.9096.80133.087.082.6266.31 industry3.292.553.057.632.502.802.70 water supply4.394.925.885.243.43.43.994.88 Average calorie consumption per day 3.592.771.835.055.053.903.90 2.8 Calorie export/import, M per year 11418.00-4519.00-25787.0048000.0019020.00 almost 0 Population growth rates, %0.981.23-1.441.901.902.302.301.001.002.02.01.97 GNP growth, % for the whole period 308.2221.5160.2800 141 163 Water use per hectare, thousand m 3 /ha 9.4011.012.0012.9011.109.87.78 Total per capita water consumption a year, m 3 1710.001910.001818.002416.001740.0020461892

6. Evaluating the future water resources of the Aral Sea Basin, km3 (SIC-ICWC)

7. Combination of climate scenarios and water management scenarios (SIC-ICWC) Water management scenario Climate scenarios Usual natural runoffScenario В2Scenario А2 average year dry yearaverage year dry yearaverage year dry year Total133,05494,123126,40488,717120,55685,027 the Amu Darya River81,29957,98974,64953,08371,79950,980 the Syr Darya River51,75536,13451,75535,63348,75734,047 Hydropower (irrigation regime W1): 126,40495,833120,55689,985 the Amu Darya River74,64956,20071,79953,850 the Syr Darya River51,75539,63348,75736,635 Hydropower (hydropower regime W2): 119,27481,264113,99676,386 the Amu Darya River69,71945,83167,43943,551 the Syr Darya River49,55535,43346,55732,835

8. Case study of Syrdarya basin 2002…2008!

9. Water availability in Syrdarya 2008 Summer Water natural availability of mean long-term norm, % AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSept. 778665557670 Delivery, % Kazakhstan 150147864458178 Kyrgyzstan 1056457606781 Tajikistan 345969748581 Uzbekistan 12076605872105

10. Water demand under the "optimistic option” over a 25-year period according to the WEMP (million m3)

11. Comparing the results of the ASBMM model with other predictions (SIC ICWC)

12. IWRM principles  Equity, equality, openness and information awareness;  Management on the basis of basin hydrography;  Public participation in management, planning, maintenance, and financing;  Water conservation and water demand management;  Nature’s demand priority;  Monitoring and use of all kinds of water;  Horizontal coordination of water users and vertical coordination of water hierarchical levels;  Economic and financial stability of management.

13. Adoption of IWRM in the Fergana Valley

14. Indicators of agricultural production improvement in the IWRM-Fergana Project

15. Impact of climatic factors

16. Formation of azotobacter nodules on green gram roots

17. Farmer training in adapting to climate change

18. Principal directions of adaptation 1. More precision long term forecast of water availability. 2. More accurate forecast of climatic and hydrological conditions. 3. Ability to get permanently climatic information. 4. Multiyear regulation reservoirs. 5. Water saving and implementation of IWRM. 6. Training for adaptation. 7. Increase second crop growing. 8. Water resistant crops. 9. Control of losses in rivers.