1. STAGE 5: LA ESTIMATE Annual Population Survey (APS) SUMMARY STAGE: NATIONAL ESTIMATE STAGE 4STAGE 3STAGE 2STAGE 1 Family Resources Survey (FRS) School Census (SC)/Early Years Census (EYC) DfE bandings for medium and high eligibility are based on the below: medium = all LAs not in top 25% of LAs high = top 25% of Las Number Eligible Total project bids permitted for LA Medium4 High6 Eligibility estimates should be treated as indicative given the reliance on survey data and the uncertainty over future changes in population, employment and earnings. In addition, not all eligible parents are expected to take up the additional hours. Note that take up of the first 15 hours is published annually based on the Early Years Census and School Census. The other data sources are also updated on an annual basis and so estimates based on these are subject to change. Data Sources Family Resources Survey 2012/13 Survey of Personal Incomes 2012-13 Annual Population Survey 2014 ONS population projections 2017-18 (mid-2012 based DfE and OBR adjusted) Early Years Census and School Census January 2015 The first stage is to start from the ONS population projections for the number of 3- and 4-year- olds. The SC/EYC are used to identify the proportion of 4-year-olds attending reception classes, who are then removed from the population as they are not eligible for additional hours. A national estimate of the eligibility rate is calculated using the FRS to identify the proportion of 3- and 4- year-olds with parents meeting the lower earnings eligibility criteria of 16 times the national minimum wage/national living wage per week. The SPI is then used to estimate the proportion of the eligible population who earn above £100,000 and these children are removed from the FRS estimate of eligibility. Finally the proportion eligible is applied to the ONS population projections, having removed children who attend reception classes, to give the number of eligible children as 390,000. The FRS sample size is not sufficient for local authority level analysis and therefore the APS is used to estimate eligibility at sub-national level. The APS does not have reliable information on earnings and there are still some limits due to small sample size, which mean that we can only approximate to the eligible population in each local authority. The proxy used is the number of children aged under 16 where parents are usually working at least 16 hours per week. The proportion of these children in each local authority is then applied to the national eligibility estimate of 390,000 in order to get a figure for the number of 3- and 4-year-olds eligible in each local authority. Please note: This Presentation may not be reproduced, retransmitted or further distributed to the press or any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. ESTIMATING ELIGIBILITY FOR 30 HOURS BY LOCAL AUTHORITY The calculation of eligibility estimates for 30 hours of childcare is not straightforward and relies on several sources of data. The number of 3- and 4-year-olds eligible for the additional hours is estimated using: ONS population projections Survey of Personal Incomes (SPI) LA ELIGIBILITY AND PROJECT LIMIT