1. M+P | MBBM group www.mplusp.eu People with solutions Triple AAA-tyres - cost/benefit analysis - NL “best tyre” campaign Erik de Graaff Prepared for: LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 2016 ‒‒

2. Executive Summary: What are AAA tyres good for? LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 20162 AAA tyres reduce costs, reduce traffic accidents and reduce environmental impact Total savings for the EU28: € 34 billion/year AAA tyres reduce costs, reduce traffic accidents and reduce environmental impact Total savings for the EU28: € 34 billion/year

3. Content  The consortium  Core question‘What is the potential benefit of AAA-tyres in NL?’  Approach‘How to calculate this benefit?’  Results ‘What is the current distribution of tyres in NL?’ ‘What are societal benefits of AAA-tyres in NL?’ ‘What are end-user benefits of AAA-tyres in NL?’ ‘What are potential benefits of AAA-tyres in…… Amsterdam, NL Government fleet, EU’  NL follow upfrom “AAA tyres” towards “Best tyre” public awareness campaign Next phase limit proposal EU/ECE LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 20163

4. The consortium  The initiator/client: Ministery of Infrastructure and Environment  The researchers: TNO and M+P  The stake holders: tyre industry, tyre branche, vehicle branche, touring club, consumer organisations etc LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 20164

5. What is the potential benefit of AAA-tyres in the Netherlands? Status quo (‘average tyre’) LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 20165 D AAA (‘best tyre’) source: VACO, dossier bandenlabel 2013 66 dB

6. How to calculate this benefit? LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 20166 1.Current tyre distribution in NL determined with help of the tyre type data base of VACO (2013 data) 2.Benefits of AAA-tyres determined in terms of: energy (fuel cost savings and reduced amount of CO 2 ) safety (reduced amount of accidents and slight, serious and fatal injuries) noise (reduced amount of annoyed and sleep disturbed people) savings potential A (energy) savings potential A (safety) savings potential A (noise) savings potential AAA = + +

7. What is the current tyre distribution in NL? On average, NL drives on DCB tyres (D=energy, C=safety, B=noise). Tyre typeEnergySafetyNoiseNoise (dB) C14.4 (‘D-label’)2.6 (‘C-label’)1.9 (‘B-label’)69.9 C24.3 (‘D-label’)2.7 (‘C-label’)2.0 (‘B-label’)71.6 C33.7 (‘D-label’)2.5 (‘C-label’)1.8 (‘B-label’)72.2 * Labelling: A = 1, B = 2, C = 3, D = 4, etc… LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 20167

8. What are the potential societal benefits in NL? …of A-rated tyre for energy Vehicle classFuel type Fuel savings [in Ml] Fuel cost savings [in M€] Passenger cars Petrol 249170 Passenger cars Diesel 9572 Service/delivery Diesel 6146 Distribution Diesel 11 Heavy duty Diesel 9270 Bus Diesel 76 TOTAL 506365 Vehicle classFuel type CO 2 -reduction [in MtCO 2 ] TOTALMix1.3 On a societal level, annual savings of nearly 506Ml of fuel, 365M€ of fuel costs and a reduction of 1.3Mton in CO2 emissions can be achieved. LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 20168

9. What are the potential societal benefits in NL? …of A-rated tyre for safety A shift toward A-rated tyres for safety yearly yields 43 less fatalities, 260 less serious injuries and 364 less slight injuries in traffic accidents. In total, this saves the society 183 M€ each year. C1C2C3TOTAL Reduced number of fatalities374243 Reduced number of serious injuries2182913260 Reduced number of slight injuries3231030364 Monetary benefits [in M€]156.518.28.9184 LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 20169

10. What are the potential societal benefits in NL? …of A-rated tyre for noise TOTAL Reduced number of highly annoyed people 216000 Reduced number of annoyed people 361000 Reduced number of highly sleep disturbed people 204000 Reduced number of sleep disturbed people 310000 Monetary benefits [in M€]389 A shift towards A-rated tyres for noise results in reduction of several hundreds of thousands of (highly) annoyed and (highly) sleep-disturbed people. This corresponds to annual societal savings of 389M€. LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201610

11. What are the potential societal benefits in NL? …of AAA-rated tyre for energy, safety AND noise EnergySafetyNoiseTOTAL Annual fuel savings [in Ml] 506-- Annual CO2 reduction [in MtCO2] 1.3-- Reduced number of fatalities -43- Reduced number of serious injuries -260- Reduced number of slight injuries -364- Reduced number of highly annoyed people --216000 Reduced number of annoyed people --361000 Reduced number of highly sleep disturbed people --204000 Reduced number of sleep disturbed people --310000 Annual cost savings [in M€]365 184389938 The societal benefits of AAA-rated tyres are calculated as the sum of the independent benefits of energy, safety and noise. It can be stated, that a shift to AAA-rated tyres yield benefits for the end-user as well as the Dutch society. LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201611

12. What are the potential end-user benefits? …of AAA-rated tyres: Fuel cost savings! De fuel cost savings for the end-user vary between 117 € per year for an average passenger car on petrol up to 2.418 € per year for an average long haul truck. Vehicle classFuel type Fuel savings [in l] Fuel cost savings [in €] Passenger cars (family) Petrol 67117 Passenger cars (lease) Diesel 114171 Service/delivery Diesel 300449 Urban delivery/collection Diesel 449674 Municipal utility Diesel 507761 Regional delivery/collection Diesel 574862 Long haul Diesel 16122418 Construction Diesel 526790 Bus Diesel 6911036 Coach Diesel 566849 LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201612

13. What are the potential societal benefits in EU*? …of AAA-rated tyre for energy, safety AND noise Same assumptions as in NL NL tyre distribution NL driving patterns NL share of vehicle technologies NL fuel consumption NL accident causation NL road surface characteristics NL driving speeds Adopted assumptions to EU EU vehicle fleet / vehicle-kilometres EU road network EU weather conditions Calculation for car occupants only (EU) EU number of annoyed and sleep- disturbed people Energy Noise Safety * Potential benefits of Triple-A tyres in Europe, Zyl, Roo, Dittrich and Jansen, 2014 LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201613

14. What are the potential societal benefits in EU*? …of AAA-rated tyre for energy, safety AND noise EnergySafetyNoiseTOTAL Annual fuel savings [in Gl] 17-- Annual CO2 reduction [in MtCO2] 42-- Reduced number of fatalities -2567- Reduced number of serious injuries -12353- Reduced number of slight injuries -19631- Reduced number of highly annoyed people [in millions] --8.2 Reduced number of annoyed people [in millions] --13.0 Reduced number of highly sleep disturbed people [in millions] --3.4 Reduced number of sleep disturbed people [in millions] --6.1 Annual cost savings [in G€]13 101134 Based on differences between EU and NL in terms of VKMs (vehicle kilometres), road length, accident statistics, etc., the societal benefits of AAA-rated tyres in the EU are more than 30 times higher than in NL. The annual societal cost savings amount to about 34 billion Euros. LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201614

15. Correlation between label values (data of 472 C1 205/55R16 tyres) LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201615

16. The costs: sales price vs label values (data of 472 C1 205/55R16 tyres) LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201616

17. The costs??  No data on costs available from tyre industry  Tyres with better label values are available in the market  And do not cost more….  (re) development of a tyre does cost money  Especially (too) early depreciation of manufacturing tools  Shift of priorities in already planned redevelopment does not cost more than normal, supposed it is announced well in time LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201617

18. AAA tyres: are they available?  2013: none AAA; some AA  2016: some AAA; several AA  Decision: ▫ Transform wish for “AAA tyres” into wish for “Best tyres” ▫ can not base a public campaign on single pieces / brands LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201618

19. NL policy  Push and pull  Push = Enforce and tighten the minimum requirements of products  Pull = Promote a market shift towards better performing products LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201619

20. Example NL policy: pull  NL awareness campaign “choose the best tyre”  Euro cities “Declaration on Better Tyres” LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201620

21. Pull: does it work? Manufacturers: YES! A shift in performance was observed since 2012 Consumers: not much yet, Tyres are still a low interest product for most consumers Fleet owners / professionals: good response LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201621

22. Example NL policy: push  Proposal in EU and ECE to introduce next level limits in regulation R117 in 2020  Based on 20 percentile of 2013 label data  See UNECE/GRB informal doc 62-01 LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201622

23. AAA tyres: next steps?  Monitoring of (2016) current state labels  Continuation of “best tyre” campaign  Continuation of EU/ECE limit value discussion  Declaration on “Better Tyres” in Eurocities  Include Van and Truck tyres in campaign? LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201623

24. Additional information  http://www.better-tyres-now.eu http://www.better-tyres-now.eu  http://www.better-tyres-now.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Wolfert.000383.pdf http://www.better-tyres-now.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Wolfert.000383.pdf  https://workinggroupnoise.com/2015/12/10/better-tyres/ https://workinggroupnoise.com/2015/12/10/better-tyres/  http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2014/wp29grb/GRB-60-03e.pdf http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2014/wp29grb/GRB-60-03e.pdf  https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2015/wp29grb/GRB-62-01e-Add.1.pdf https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2015/wp29grb/GRB-62-01e-Add.1.pdf  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuUFwm0ovdw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuUFwm0ovdw  http://kiesdebesteband.nl/ http://kiesdebesteband.nl/ LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201624

25. Final Summary: What are AAA tyres good for? LEO seminar Oslo 2 June 201625 AAA tyres reduce costs, reduce traffic accidents and reduce environmental impact Total savings for the EU28: € 34 billion/year = € 67/person/year AAA tyres reduce costs, reduce traffic accidents and reduce environmental impact Total savings for the EU28: € 34 billion/year = € 67/person/year