1. Leading the way; making a difference Tanker market key driving forces European Panel - Copenhagen - 8 October Erik Ranheim Senior Manager Research & Projects INTERTANKO

2. Leading the way; Making a difference The state of the industry The main driving force Oil supply and demand Product supply and demand Tanker deliveries and scrapping Strategic considerations Overview

3. Leading the way; Making a difference The state of the industry

4. Leading the way; Making a difference Average freight rates 1 - 12 years backwards $/day

5. Leading the way; Making a difference Tanker demand oil products and crude oil tonne miles and tonnes transported Billion tonne miles Million tonnes

6. Leading the way; Making a difference Tanker Fleet Development 1992-2016 m dwt Number

7. Leading the way; Making a difference Tanker indices %

8. Leading the way; Making a difference Productivity Tonne mile /dwt

9. Leading the way; Making a difference Tanker ownership, period and spot market

10. Leading the way; making a difference USD per gallon Gasoline price at the pump January 2012 Oil consumption per capita Oil price Tax Ref. margin

11. Leading the way; Making a difference No incidents 1,000 ts pollution

12. Leading the way; Making a difference The main driving forces

13. Leading the way; making a difference Oil price and freight rates 1970-2014 $ per barrel

14. Leading the way; Making a difference Technical development Difficult accessible oil profitable Alternative energy more profitable Saving energy more profitable Economic of shipping changed Changing political situation Good for the environment Consequences of high oil price In End September 2004 the Brent Blend oil price was some $47 per barrel which at that time was regarded to be high. An annual increase of 7% would give an oil price today of some $92 per barrel today.

15. Leading the way; Making a difference Oil Supply and demand

16. Leading the way; Making a difference World net oil export mbd

17. Leading the way; Making a difference World oil demand - OECD/non-OECD mbd

18. Leading the way; Making a difference Net oil import US and China - % of consumption China

19. Leading the way; Making a difference US and N Sea Crude Oil Production mbd

20. Leading the way; Making a difference US crude oil production and import mbd Source: EIA

21. Leading the way; Making a difference US petroleum product import and export mbd Source: EIA

22. Leading the way; Making a difference US oil import by source mbd per countrymbd total

23. Leading the way; Making a difference US. crude oil production by source, 1990-2040 mbd mbd Source: EIA

24. Leading the way; Making a difference Oil products

25. Leading the way; Making a difference OECD oil product import by source mbd per countrymbd total

26. Leading the way; Making a difference Product trade to Europe by source mbd per country mbd total

27. Leading the way; Making a difference Intra European product trade by source 000 ts per country Source: IEA

28. Leading the way; Making a difference Major product exporters mbd

29. Leading the way; Making a difference Major product importers mbd

30. Leading the way; Making a difference Global crude distillation capacity mbd per areambd world

31. Leading the way; Making a difference Tanker deliveries and scrapping

32. Leading the way; Making a difference Deliveries, sales for decommissioning and conversion of tankers and combos m dwt Number Source: INTERTANKO, various

33. Leading the way; Making a difference Strategic considerations

34. Leading the way; making a difference Strategic considerations World economy still weak IMF boss Ms. Lagarde Tense conflict areas in Europe, Asia, Africa, Mdl E ….. Oil price high - despite decline US boosting oil production- changing the energy world Oil demand OECD retracting/Asia expanding Age >15 years becoming an issue Shipbuilding over-capacity Low fleet growth 2014/15 but increasing again in 2016 High bunker prices change economics in shipping/ slow steaming Market increasingly complex The only predictability about the future tanker market is its unpredictability

35. Leading the way; Making a difference Others

36. Leading the way; Making a difference 10 largest oil consumers 2014 mbd Litres per capita per year Source: Various

37. Leading the way; Making a difference Net oil import US and China as % of consumption

38. Leading the way; Making a difference Economic, oil market and seaborne trade growth %

39. Leading the way; Making a difference Middle East oil Export 1990/2012 19902012

40. Leading the way; Making a difference US and N Sea Crude Oil Production mbd

41. Leading the way; Making a difference Major oil import areas mbd

42. Leading the way; Making a difference Oil trade to Europe mbd

43. Leading the way; Making a difference Global Crude Distillation Capacity

44. Leading the way; Making a difference Suezmax spot discharge 2013

45. Leading the way; Making a difference Aframax spot discharge 2013

46. Leading the way; Making a difference Long term - mtoe Total energy Transportation By Continent Source: BP