1. Counterparts to Single Neutrinos
Matthias Kadler
Perspectives on the Extragalactic Frontier, Trieste, May 6, 2016

2. High-Fluence Blazars as Possible Counterparts to PeV Neutrinos
Matthias Kadler
F. Krauß, K. Mannheim, R. Ojha
Perspectives on the Extragalactic Frontier, Trieste, May 6, 2016

3. IceCube Collaboration 2013; Aartsen et al. 2014

4. How to locate astrophysical candidate sources?
Reduce the field size
Use the most significant events
Have a physical model

5. IceCube Collaboration 2013; Aartsen et al. 2014

6. IceCube Collaboration 2013; Aartsen et al. 2014

7. Ansatz: p-g in blazar jets
Energy threshold: ~PeV
Rel. protons (jet)
Neutrino Spectrum
(G~10, q varies)
100TeV
10 PeV
~1 PeV
For details, see Krauß et al. 2014
Neutrino Spectrum
(G~10)
100TeV
10 PeV
~1 PeV
For details, see Krauß et al. 2014
UV seed photons:
e~30eV

8. Ansatz: p-g in blazar jets
Mannheim & Biermann 1998
Mücke et al. 2000 ≤
Integration
 need high-fluence FSRQs!

9. E~1.0PeV
E~1.1PeV

11. Krauß et al. 2014, A&A 566, L7

12. Krauß et al. 2014, A&A 566, L7
1.71
1.94
1.25
0.25
0.39
0.19 ?

13. No individual source bright enough
The six TANAMI blazars are capable of explaining the observed IceCube PeV flux via p-g!
But:
No individual source bright enough
Scaling factor?

14. E~2PeV
IceCube Collaboration 2013; Aartsen et al. 2014

15. Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI: 10.1038?

16. ? 13
Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI:

17. Empirical Scaling Factor
Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI:

18. Theoretical Scaling Factor
100TeV
10 PeV
~1 PeV
Nmax
Maximum
100TeV
10 PeV
~1 PeV
0.5 Nmax
Flavor Corrected
100TeV
10 PeV
~1 PeV
0.25 Nmax
FSRQ Fraction
100TeV
10 PeV
~1 PeV
Nmax
Predicted
Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI:

19. Most individual blazars have very low neutrino expectation values!
Look at the very brightest blazars during major outbursts

20. PKS B
Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI:

21. PKS B
Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI:

22. PKS B
Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI:

23. Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI: 10.1038

24. Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI: 10.1038

25. ? ?
1.2
4.5
Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI:

26. Poisson probability: ~11%
Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI:

27. Self-consistent model:
Based on measured keV-GeV blazar fluences
Explains all-sky PeV neutrino flux
Predicts peaked PeV spectra
no problem with TeV overprediction
Association of BigBird with a single blazar
Small chance probability

28. Chance Coincidence?
~5%
Most dramatic blazar outburst of the (far) southern sky
Highest-energy neutrino (seen in the southern sky)
Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI:

29. Fundamental Implications (with the 5% kept in mind)
Hadronic blazar emission models
High-energy cosmic rays
Neutrino velocity
Lorentz invariance
Equivalence principle
Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI:

30. Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI: 10.1038

31. (with the 5% kept in mind)
Implications
(with the 5% kept in mind)
Hadronic blazar emission models
High-energy cosmic rays
Neutrino velocity
Lorentz invariance
Equivalence principle
Kadler et al. 2016, Nat. Phys , DOI: ; Wang et al. 2016, arXiv: ; Wei et al. 2016, arXiv: