1. City of Las Cruces Redistricting Redistricting Plans June 6, 2011 Presented by: Michael Sharp, Vice President Research & Polling, Inc.

2. 2 About Us  Research & Polling, Inc. has 26 years of redistricting experience Staff has 45 years combined redistricting experience  Over 100 redistricting projects for state and local governments NM State Legislature (4 cycles) Las Cruces City Council (2001) Doña Ana County Commission (2001)  Market research and opinion polls Consumer research Citizen satisfaction surveys

3. Research & Polling, Inc.3 Redistricting  What is “redistricting”? Draw (and re-draw) lines that determine which voters are represented by each district  Why redistrict? Decennial Census  Most current population data Population shifts within an area District growth slower than the area as a whole  District might gain population District growth faster than the area as a whole  District might lose population District matches city growth rate  Might remain unchanged, depending on neighboring districts

4. Research & Polling, Inc.4 Who Districts? Elected BodyDistrictsAuthority to Redistrict U.S. House of Representatives3State Legislature / Governor New Mexico Legislature State House State Senate 70 42 State Legislature / Governor Public Regulation Commission5State Legislature / Governor County Commission3/5County Commission City Council/Commission4 to 10City Council/Commission Local School Board5/7Local School Board

5. Research & Polling, Inc.5 Key Districting Dates April 1, 2010Census Day January 10, 2011Apportionment of U.S. House March 15, 2011 Census Bureau delivered redistricting data April 2011 to June 2011Redistricting process November 2011Municipal election

6. Research & Polling, Inc.6 Districting Process  Census data released  Public meetings First public meeting is dedicated to the process and explaining the ABCs of redistricting Show initial plans during second meeting  Gather input about plans Revise plan(s), if necessary, and adopt a plan during subsequent meetings  Typical time to plan adoption: 3 months 2001: plan adopted on June 25  Assign voters to correct districts  Election resolution  Filing date  Election

7. Research & Polling, Inc.7 Principles of Districting  Equal population  Minority Voting Rights  Compactness  Contiguity  Communities of interest

8. Research & Polling, Inc.8 Equal Population  Based on most recent Decennial Census  Includes everyone, including, but not limited to: Adults Children Citizens College students in dorms Prisoners Non-citizens  Undocumented immigrants  Foreign students  Foreign workers (e.g. German Air Force personnel at Holloman AFB)  Not limited to registered voters

9. Research & Polling, Inc.9 Constitutional Mandate to Redistrict Gray v. Sanders, 1963 “One person, one vote” Equal population = equal representation  Congress: as equal as possible  State legislature, other entities: 10% spread, if there’s a good reason

10. Research & Polling, Inc.10 Ideal Population  Ideal population = total population / # of districts  Using 2010 Census  City of Las Cruces: 97,618 / 6 = 16,270  Change from 2000 to 2010 2000 Census2010 CensusChange% Change Las Cruces74,26797,61823,35131.4% 2000 Census Ideal Population 2010 Census Ideal PopulationChange% Change District Ideal12,37816,2703,89231.4%

11. Research & Polling, Inc.11 Substantially Equal Population  Districts must be “substantially equal” No more than 10% total deviation Within +5% of the ideal population  City of Las Cruces, 2010 Census  Population of each district (ideal pop ±5%)  16,270 + 813 range: 15,457 – 17,083  Based on total population, not registered voters

12. Research & Polling, Inc.12 Minority Voting Strength  Give the minority population an opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice  Do not dilute voting strength of ethnic/language minority groups (Voting Rights Act, Section 2): Native Americans African Americans Hispanics  Do not create districts in which race is the predominant criterion in subordination of traditional districting principles (Shaw v. Reno, 509 U.S. 630 (1993))

13. Research & Polling, Inc.13 Minority Voting Strength – cont.  Three criteria that need to meet to require single- member districts under federal case law ( Thornburg v. Gingles, 478 U.S. 30 (1986)) Minority population is compact and large enough to constitute a majority in a single-member district Minority population is politically cohesive Bloc voting

14. Research & Polling, Inc.14 Minority Voting Strength Dilution  Packing  Cracking

15. Research & Polling, Inc.15 Dilute through Packing  Concentrate as much of a minority group into as few districts as possible to minimize the number of districts in which the minority could elect a candidate of their choice  Avoid packing Blue – minority areas

16. Research & Polling, Inc.16 Dilute Through Cracking  Split up a minority into as many districts as possible to minimize influence in any given district  Avoid cracking Blue – minority areas

17. Research & Polling, Inc.17 Neither Packed nor Cracked  In the example, provides two minority districts whereby the minority group has a chance to elect a candidate of their choice Blue – minority areas

18. Research & Polling, Inc.18 Compactness  Different ways to measure compactness None are perfect  Refers to shape, not geographic size Could have a very large district in area that is compact in shape  A jurisdiction’s irregular outer boundary can affect the compactness measures of a district

19. Research & Polling, Inc.19 Compactness  Compact:  Not Compact: NC – 12 th CD 1991 TX – 18 th CD 1991 NM – 3 rd CD 1991

20. Research & Polling, Inc.20 Contiguity  No islands of territory  One distinct part, not two or more  Contiguous: Not Contiguous: A B C A B C A A

21. Research & Polling, Inc.21 Communities of Interest  All other factors which determine where a district boundary could be drawn Maintaining core of existing districts Protection of incumbents Respecting political subdivisions (e.g. avoid precinct splits) Also includes, but not limited to:  Neighborhoods  Cultural / historical traditions  Geographic boundaries  Growth patterns  Can be considered as long as previous districting principles are not violated

22. Plans

23. Research & Polling, Inc.23 City Council – Current Districts

24. Research & Polling, Inc.24 City Council – Plan F

25. Research & Polling, Inc.25 City Council – Plan F-1

26. Research & Polling, Inc.26 Thank you Questions? Michael Sharp Research & Polling, Inc. 505-821-5454 msharp@rpinc.com www.rpinc.com