1. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change C-Change in GEES Impacts of Climate Change Recent Environmental Change

2. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change How to use these teaching slides  These slides are not intended to form a complete lecture on the session topic.  These resources are designed to suggest a framework to help tutors develop their own lecture material  The resource slides comprise where appropriate; key points, case studies, images, references and further resources.  These resources may be used for educational purposes only, for other uses please contact the author  These slides were last updated in February 2010

3. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Disclaimer  Links within this presentation may lead to other sites. These are provided for convenience only. We do not sponsor, endorse or otherwise approve of any information or statements appearing in those sites. The author is not responsible for the availability of, or the content located on or through, any such external site.  While every effort and care has been taken in preparing the content of this presentation, the author disclaims all warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information in any of the content. The author also (to the extent permitted by law) shall not be liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information. The author is also not liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of, or reliance on sites linked to this site, or the internet generally.  Pictures, photographs and diagrams within this presentation have been produced by the author unless otherwise stipulated  No content within this resource is knowingly an infringement of copyright. Any infringement can be immediately rectified on notification of the author of the resource

4. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Session Aims How are ‘global’ climate change statistics derived? How has climate changed over the past 100-150 years? –Temperature –Precipitation What other indicators of climate change over the past 100-150 years are there? Difficulties in determining recent environmental change

5. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change ‘Global Warming’ in the News Gore and UN share Nobel peace prize (Guardian Unlimited, 12 th October, 2007) Big food companies accused of risking climate catastrophe (Guardian Unlimited, 8th November, 2007) Spain shown perils of climate change (Guardian Unlimited, 10th November, 2007) Climate wars threaten billions (Guardian Unlimited, 4th November, 2007) Climate change will destroy Asia's gains, study says (Guardian Unlimited, 19 th November, 2007) Global food crisis looms as climate change and fuel shortages bite (Guardian Unlimited, 3rd November, 2007)

6. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change IPCC (2007): “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal” Increasing global air and ocean temperatures Rising global average sea level Reductions of snow and ice Figure SPM.3. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

7. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Two Major Questions How does recent climate change during the past 100-150 years compare with natural long-term fluctuations? To what extent are recent climate changes caused by human actions?

8. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change The IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Established in 1988 Established by –World Meteorological Organization (WMO) –United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Aim –to assess the available scientific, technical and socio-economic information in the field of climate change Winner of Nobel Peace Prize 2007 4th Assessment Report published 17th November 2007 5 th Assessment Report planned for 2014 Previous Reports: 1990, 1995, 2001 Fourth Assessment Report Process >2500 scientific expert reviewers 800 contributing authors 450 lead authors from >130 countries

9. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change IPCC Working Groups WG 1: The Physical Science Basis WG 2: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability WG 3: Mitigation of Climate Change

10. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Data previous to accurate thermometer records derived from proxy measurements – tree rings, corals, ice cores, historical records… Rise at same time as records improve Recent Temperature Records SYR Figure 2-3 IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA, 398 pp

11. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change BUT HOW IS GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DETERMINED? 2005 and 1998 were the warmest two years since 1850 The total temperature increase from 1850-1899 to 2001- 2005 is 0.76 o C Recent Temperature Records SYR Figure 2-3 IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA, 398 pp

12. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Global Warming? – The Methods Near-surface land temperature Sea Surface Temperature Satellites Instrumental records – good accuracy and coverage since 1860s Data collecting buoys belonging to the National Data Buoy Center Network of temperature recording stations Recording atmospheric, sea-surface and land surface temperatures for past thirty years (global coverage) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mildura_Airport_Weatherstation.jpg

13. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Averaging Global Surface Temperatures Observations from land stations, buoys, satellites, and ships located within grid squares Observations within each square averaged Grid squares weighted by area and averaged Allowances for factors introducing artificial changes in record (this is a whole area of active research - urbanisation (i.e. Englehart and Douglas, 2003) - change in measuring methods

14. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change How has climate changed? Changes to temperature…

15. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Records of Northern Hemisphere temperature variation during the last 1300 years from different proxy records Recent Temperature Variation Figure TS.20. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

16. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Annual Global Mean Temperature, Plus Linear Trends over Different Time Periods Figure TS.6. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. The rate of warming has increased!

17. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Time Series of June, July and August Temperature Anomalies in Central Europe Note in the summer of 2003 the anomaly of 3.8 o C (greatest anomaly) Box 3.6. Fig 2. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

18. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Observed temperatures, at different heights in the atmosphere, as monthly mean anomalies relative to the period 1979 to 1997 Dashed lines indicate the times of major volcanic events Figure TS.7. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

19. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Structure of the Atmosphere Troposphere: Lowest layer (0 to 10-20 km) Stratosphere: 10-50 km, layer in which most ozone occurs (peak at 22 km). Troposphere is warming and stratosphere is cooling Temperature trends in the stratosphere and troposphere are different

20. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Annual Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) and Cloud Cover Increase in global average of cloud cover in recent decades – warmer winters and cooler summers Decrease in diurnal and seasonal variation in temperature HAD BEEN recorded Cloud cover (solid line) and DTR (°C, dashed line) for Europe, USA, Canada, Australia, the former Soviet Union, and eastern China (from Dai et al., 1997a). Note that the axis for DTR has been inverted. Therefore, a positive correlation of cloud cover with inverted DTR indicates a negative cloud cover/DTR correlation Fig. 2.3. IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T.,Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881pp

21. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) Relative to the 1961 to 1990 Mean Figure 3.2. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

22. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Global Temperature Trend over the Period 1979 to 2005 Greatest warming at higher northern latitudes Greatest warming in the NH winter and spring Average Arctic T increasing at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world Figure TS.6. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

23. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Projections of Global Mean Surface Temperature from earlier IPCC reports alongside observed GMST Figure 1.1. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

24. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Changes to Global Temperature Distributions Widespread reductions in number of frost days in mid-latitude regions Increases in the number of warm extremes Reduction in the number of daily cold extremes Heat waves increased in duration Summer of 2003 warmest since records began around 1780. Note: ‘Global dimming’ is not global in extent and has an urban bias. See Brabson and Palutikof (2002) for a discussion of extreme temperatures in the Central England temperature record

25. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Orange: Surface T > 27.8 o C (82 o F). Hurricanes can only form where SST > 27.8 o C. Sea-Surface Temperature Distribution http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=275

26. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Tropical Atlantic Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) Annual Anomalies Relative to the 1961 to 1990 Mean Figure TS.11. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Avery t,M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

27. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Smoothed Annual Global SST Anomalies from Different Data Sets Relative to 1961 to 1990 Figure 3.4. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

28. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Combined Land-Surface Air Temperature and SST Anomalies Relative to the 1961-1990 Mean Figure 3.6. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. Note the different axis

29. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Annual Temperature Anomalies Relative to the 1961-1990 Mean (Tropics and North Polar Region) Figure 3.6. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. Note the different axis

30. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change How has climate changed? Changes to precipitation…

31. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Global land precipitation has increased by ~2% since 1900 Evaporation is greatest from low latitude oceans Change in distribution of precipitation – increase at higher latitudes, decrease at lower latitudes

32. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Distribution of Annual Land Precipitation trend from 1901 to 2005 (percentage change per century/decade) Annual global land precipitation anomalies for 1900 to 2005 with respect to the 1961 to 1990 base period Figure TS.9. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

33. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Long term trends in precipitation amounts from 1900 to 2005 have been observed in many large regions – increase in Eastern N and S America, N Europe, N and central Asia Drying in Sahel, Mediterranean, S Africa and parts of S Asia Precipitation highly variable spatially and temporally, not many robust long-term trends Precipitation data is more sparse and less reliable than temperature data Summary of Changes in Precipitation http://www.flickr.com/photos/thezionview/2511873974/sizes/l/ Zion http://en.wikipedia.or g/wiki/File:FoggDam -NT.jpg

34. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change The Decadal Trend in Contribution to Total Annual Precipitation from Very Wet Days over the Period 1951 to 2003 Substantial increases in heavy precipitation events have been observed Figure TS.10. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

35. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Percentage Change of Very Wet days from the Base Period (1960-1990) Figure TS.10. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

36. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change IPCC Conclusions on Extreme Events: “The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most areas” “From 1900 to 2005 precipitation increased significantly in eastern parts of the Americas, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, but declined in the Sahel, Mediterranean, Southern Africa and parts of southern Asia” “Globally, the area affected by droughts has likely increased since the 1970s Confidence intervals have improved since the third assessment report with regards to extreme events

37. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change INDICATORS OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE…

38. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Northern Hemisphere March-April Snow Covered Area Figure TS.12. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

39. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Difference in the Distribution of March- April Snow Cover between 1967-1987 and 1988-2004 Figure TS.12. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

40. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Anomalies Linear trends Arctic = -33 x 10 3 km 2 /yr = 2.7% decrease per decade (since1978) Antarctic = +5.6 x 10 3 km 2 /yr Figure TS.13. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

41. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Rates of Observed Recent Surface Elevation Change for Greenland (1989-2005) and Antarctica (1992-2005) Figure TS.14. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

42. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Annual averages of the global mean sea level Sea-Level Change Figure TS.18. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. Units are in mm relative to the average for 1961 to 1990. Error bars are 90% confidence intervals

43. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Glacier length records from different parts of the world Glacier Fluctuations Major retreat from start of 1900s On century timescale glacier retreat is worldwide Not in equilibrium with climatic conditions - response times of 10-70 years? - therefore significant warming from mid-19th century. Other evidence only shows clear warming since early 20th century Conflicts unexplained Glacial extent is not just related to climate Fig. 2.18. IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T.,Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881pp

44. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Difficulties in Determining Trends in Global Environmental Change Can be difficult to determine ‘genuine’ environmental change Difficult to discern trends until established for longer time (possible cyclic activity) –ie. solar and lunar phenomena Changes are not globally (or temporally) uniform Non-gradual changes Different time periods indicate different trends and rates of change Figure TS.6. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

45. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Increase not uniform, some cooling Varies year to year and decade to decade Non- temporally-uniform Warming SYR Figure 2-3 IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA, 398 pp

46. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change Summary Our understanding of past climate change is constantly being improved (more records, improved data sets, greater understanding of the climate system) There are different types and consequences of environmental change (e.g. temperature; precipitation; snow cover extent, thickness and duration etc…) Climate Change is not spatially or temporally uniform Understanding of the climate system is essential to interpreting the past and predicting the future

47. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change References Brabson, B.B. and Palutikof, J.P. (2002) The evolution of extreme temperatures in the Central England temperature record Geophysical Research Letters 29 (24), No. 2163 Englehart, P.J. and Douglas, A.V. (2003) Urbanization and seasonal temperature trends: Observational evidence from a data-sparse part of North America International Journal of Climatology 23 (10), 1253-1263 Hardy, J.T. (2003) Climate Change: Causes, Effects and Solutions. Wiley. Strahler, A. and Strahler, A (1994) Introducing Physical Geography, Wiley. Key Reference IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp

48. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change This resource was created by the University of Keele and released as an open educational resource through the 'C-change in GEES' project exploring the open licensing of climate change and sustainability resources in the Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences. The C-change in GEES project was funded by HEFCE as part of the JISC/HE Academy UKOER programme and coordinated by the GEES Subject Centre. This resource is licensed under the terms of the Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/).http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/ However the resource, where specified below, contains other 3rd party materials under their own licenses. The licenses and attributions are outlined below: 1.The name of the University of Keele and its logos are unregistered trade marks of the University. The University reserves all rights to these items beyond their inclusion in these CC resources. 2.The JISC logo, the C-change logo and the logo of the Higher Education Academy Subject Centre for the Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences are licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution -non-commercial-No Derivative Works 2.0 UK England & Wales license. All reproductions must comply with the terms of that license

49. Dr Zoe Robinson, Keele University, z.p.robinson@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: Recent Environmental Change AuthorDr Zoe Robinson Stephen Whitfield Institute – OwnerKeele University, School of Physical and Geographical Sciences TitleRecent Environmental Change Powerpoint Presentation Date CreatedFebruary 2010 DescriptionRecent Environmental Change Powerpoint Presentation Educational Level2 Keywords (Primary keywords – UKOER & GEESOER) UKOER, GEESOER, Global warming, precipitation, extreme events Creative Commons LicenseAttribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales Item Metadata