1. Peter Zimmel(zimmelp@missouri.edu)zimmelp@missouri.edu Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute University of Missouri www.fapri.missouri.edu George Knapek, Marc Raulston Agricultural and Food Policy Center Texas A&M University www.afpc.tamu.edu 2016 National Farm Business Management Conference Sioux Falls, SD June 13, 2016

2.  Project overview  Climate change discussion  Producer’s perspective  Farm level analysis  Earlier planting date  Producer’s reactions  Summary and questions

3.  Climate change  Is it happening?  Global warming??  Who or what is causing it??  It’s a hot topic!!  Science or myth?  Scientists continue to study the climate  Does anyone ask the farmer what they think? How they are adapting??

4.  Integrate research and extension activities to:  Inform climate change adaptation strategies ▪ Producers ▪ Extension ▪ Policy makers  Create deeper understanding of: ▪ Climate variability ▪ Agricultural impacts ▪ Barriers to adaptation

5.  Collaboration of universities  University of Missouri ▪ Market & farm level impacts  Texas A&M University ▪ Farm level impacts  University of California – Merced & Santa Cruz ▪ Climate Modeling  Funding from USDA-AFRI

6.  Farm level work  Utilize existing network of representative farm panels ▪ 13 representative crop farms selected ▪ Texas, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, North Dakota, Missouri, Alabama  Meet with panels twice ▪ Pre and post analysis ▪ Pre – farmers perspective on climate change, what climate/weather data would they use to make decisions ▪ Post – present results and discuss adaptation to changing climate

7.  Initial thoughts on climate change discussion  How to ask about climate change  What climate/weather data/metrics would they like to see  Where does climate change rank in their list of long term worries ▪ Developed a questionnaire

8.  Questionnaire  What is attitude towards climate change? ▪ Climate is changing, but has been since the beginning of time ▪ Do not feel like man is causing it, caused by natural things (i.e. volcanoes)  How are you dealing with climate change? ▪ Genetics in seed helping with drought resistance ▪ More/better irrigation ▪ Changes in crop mix ▪ North Dakota farmers said 20 years ago would not have as much corn as they do today ▪ More no-till, minimum till ▪ Crop insurance ▪ Larger equipment

9.  Questionnaire  List long term concerns of climate change ▪ Not thinking much long term, deal with it as it occurs ▪ Not losing sleep thinking or worrying about what will happen years down the road, more concerned with this year  What is your level of knowledge about climate change? ▪ Aware it is happening because they deal with weather daily ▪ Do not feel it is being caused by man ▪ Think it is over sensationalized by media

10.  Questionnaire  How do you see yourself adapting to changes ▪ Hotter/dryer – irrigation, no-till, genetics, larger equipment ▪ Wetter/cooler – tile terrace/drain, genetics, larger equipment ▪ If the frequency changes – crop insurance  What outputs would you use to make decisions about climate change? ▪ Rainfall, temperatures, soil moisture content, freeze dates, wind, growing degree days/heat units, soil temp

11.  Pre and post analysis discussions  Pre ▪ Extensive discussions about their thoughts on climate change ▪ Determine what variables would be useful to report after climate scenario runs  Post ▪ Discuss financial and climate results ▪ Collect producers thoughts and ideas about how they would use the information going forward

12.  Baseline versus scenario analysis  Baseline includes: ▪ Yields from panel members ▪ Prices from January 2015 FAPRI Stochastic Baseline  Alternative scenario includes: ▪ 30 day earlier planting window ▪ Includes changes to producer yields ▪ Price shocks of the January 2015 baseline as a result of the climate scenario

15. 2015201620172018201920202021Average Baseline 142.3143.8144.9146.2147.4148.6149.8146.2 Alternative 138.0139.5140.6142.0143.2144.4145.7141.9 Change in Yield -4.3 -4.2 -4.1-4.2 Change in CV 0.1030.1040.0970.0960.0990.1000.0940.099 Basically this means slightly lower (2.91%) and riskier yields

16. 2015201620172018201920202021Average Baseline 39.940.340.640.841.141.441.640.8 Alternative 36.536.937.237.437.738.038.237.4 Change in Yield -3.4 Change in CV 0.0560.0580.0540.0530.0570.053 0.055 Much like corn, but even worse on percentage (8.30%) terms

17. 2015201620172018201920202021Average Baseline 1475.641507.31 1556.361608.521612.001617.151630.39 1572.48 Alternative 1441.69 1472.58 1518.011568.991573.961578.471590.051534.82 Change -33.95-34.73-38.35-39.53-38.04-38.68-40.34-37.66 % Change -2.3 -2.5 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4

18.  Producers deal with weather change/uncertainty on a daily basis  Constantly adapting to changes in climate  Do not worry/think about long term consequences  Worried about staying in business  Feel like advances in seed genetics have helped them significantly  Utilize crop insurance extensively

19.  Where do we go from here:  Starting to meet with producer panels for the Post discussion  Update analysis to include January 2016 FAPRI Stochastic Baseline  Summarize results and write reports/articles for publishing

20.  FAPRI-MU website  www.fapri.missouri.edu www.fapri.missouri.edu  To contact Peter Zimmel:  573-884-8787  zimmelp@missouri.edu zimmelp@missouri.edu