1. E X T R E M E S Uwe Dor nbusch From: A visual comparison of normal and paranormal distributions Matthew Freeman J Epidemiol Community Health 2006;60:6

2. Extremes Extremes in Southeast BMP project Extremes assessment of last winter Extreme use of boat collected GPS data

4. http://www.se-coastalgroup.org.uk/wave-and-water-level-condtions/

5. Methodology Wave extremes (Met Office hindcast) Water level extremes (2011 Coastal Boundary data) Dependency Factor JRP Desktop Calculator (Hawkes 2005) JRP Curve Event Check Event Wave Event Water Level

6. MO > buoy33 years < 12 years

7. Extremes assessment of last winter Data for MO429 extended to 30-06-2014

8. Times series

9. Hs Return periods up to 12/2012 Extremes calculated including 1980 to 2001 are lower than those starting in 2001

10. Hs Return periods up to 06/2014 Extremes calculated including 1980 to 2001 are lower than those starting in 2001

11. Hs Return periods 33 vs. 35 years Extremes calculated including last winter are higher than those that do not

12. Hs Return periods and 2013/14 events Even for long data sets, the impact is quite visible

13. Water levels

14. Dependency for JRP

15. Methodology Wave extremes (Met Office hindcast) Water level extremes (2011 Coastal Boundary data) Dependency Factor JRP Desktop Calculator (Hawkes 2005) JRP Curve Event Check Event Wave Event Water Level

16. Timing is everything

17. JRP (different dependency) & events

18. Broader scale: How was the winter?

21. E X T R E M E S Highest number of high waves since 1980/81 On many counts exceeding 1989/90 Waves were more southerly Wave extremes: 1 in a few 10s Joint Return Probability: borderline between none and >1 in 200 Summary for 2013/14

22. Spatial distribution of water levels: Extreme use of boat collected GPS data 1 in 1 water levels from 2011 Water Level Boundary study (1 in 1 has an uncertainty 0.1,) ~-10cm between Brighton Marina and Newhaven ~+15 cm between Newhaven and Beach Head ~ +30cm between Newhaven and Holywell

23. Extreme use of boat collected GPS data

28. Comparison Location1 in 1 year difference (cm) ± 10cm GPS over low tide difference (cm) Brighton Marina -100 Cuckmere +8+5 to 10 Beachy Head +15+25 to 30 Holywell +30+30 to 40

29. Today’s extremes are tomorrows norm