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The other Rising Economic Giant of the Asia-Pacific June 2 ND, 2014
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In 2025 5 th largest economy, according to Goldman Sachs. Forecasts 2 According to Accenture, Mexico will be one of the Big Six. In 2050 According to HSBC Mexico will be the 8 th largest economy. 14 th LARGEST ECONOMY 5 México 4 Brazil 3 India 2 USA 1 China 14 Mexico 12 Australia 10 India 8 Russia 6 United Kingdom 4 Germany 2 China 1 USA World’s largest economies in 2013 Source: ProMéxico with information of Goldman Sachs. The N-11: More Than an Acronym. Documento de economía mundial No: 153. Marzo de 2007/ HSBC/ ACCENTURE.1/ Pronóstico de Goldman Sachs / Fondo Monetario Internacional.
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3 2.5 - 3.0%+0.1% +0. 5% +1.0% +0. 3% 4.4 - 4.9% Labor Reform Telecom Reform Energy Reform Financial Reform Impact of reforms in GDP Forecasts of structural reforms effect on GDP Growth, (%) Source: ProMéxico with information of SHCP. Natural GDP Growth Rate (2013) New Natural GDP Growth Rate (2018)
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4 Macroeconomic environment Gateway to America Human Capital Internal Market Sophisticated economy 5 competitive advantages
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5 Bilateral trade between Mexico and Australia (2003-2013) Source: ProMéxico with information of Banxico, 2013. Exports MUSD ImportsTrade balance 988 518 429 199
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Mexico: 14th largest country Equals to the size of the four largest countries in Europe Germany Sweden France Spain =
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Solid macroeconomic environment 7 Evolution of inflation, exports and international reserves in Mexico (2000- 2013) Infllation 2013 Reserves 2013Exports 2013 3.97%176 billion USD 380 billion USD Manufactures Oil Primary Reserves Inflation Record-high Billion USD Source: ProMéxico with information of INEGI / Bank of Mexico.
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Exports per capita 8 Source: ProMéxico with information of GTA/ Bank of Mexico/ Ministry of Commerce and Industry of Brazil / Russia’s Central Bank/ BEA/ Stratcan. Canada USA Mexico Russia China Brazil India 19942013 9,613.4 4,466.3 2,796.5 1,848.7 1,599.7 1,099.6 195.7 5,154.4 1,912.7 599.4 0.0 97.6 268.2 26.7 Exports per capita (selected economies), 1993 - 2013 Thousand USD
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FDI flows into Mexico (1999-2013*) 9 Source: Ministry of Economy. General Directorate of Foreign Investment. */ Figures to September 2013. Record-high MUSD
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10 Source: Fitch Ratings, Standar & Poor’s Rating Services, Moody’s Investor Service. A3 Baa1 Baa3 BBB+ BBB BBB- BBB+ BBB BBB- Positive Ratings Mexico: sovereign debt credit ratings
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11 We are commited to free trade Our FTAs give privileged access to 1.2 billion consumers. Brazil 8 China 19 United States 20 Colombia 42 Source: ProMéxico with information of Brazil; China: Colombia:; United States: ; Chile: Direcon; Mexico: Ministry of Economy. 45 countries with FTA’s With the TPP, Mexico will increase its presence in Australia, Brunei, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore and Vietnam.
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12 Mexico as part of NAFTA +50 border crossings with the US. NAFTA market= 19 trillion USD. 16 trillion European Union. Bilateral trade with the U.S.= 1 million dollars per minute. 1 million people and 300 thousand vehicles crossing the border daily. NASCO Corridor Source: ProMéxico with information of SCT/ US Department of Transportation.
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13 Youth Old-age Demographic Bonus Men Women Demographics are on our side Source: ProMéxico with information of US Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php ; INEGI, 2011; Population Projections for Mexico 2005-2050, CONAPO. *Population (in millions) by age group.http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php 118 million inhabitants with a median of 27 years. 52 million in the labor force. According to forecasts, there will be more than 83 million people of productive age by 2020.
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Mexico: demographic sweet spot 14 Importaciones mexicanas hacia Australia China Chile Mexico Brazil Working Age Population Indexed: 1990 = 100 Source: ProMéxico with information of United Nations, Haver Analytics.
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15 Mexico private Consumption outpaces its peers 36% ChinaMexicoBrazilColombiaIndiaIndonesia 58% 61%62% 69% 2013 Private Consumption as a % of GDP Source: ProMéxico with information of Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadísticas, Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografía e Informática, Central Statistical Organization, India, Badan Pusat Statistik, China National Bureau of Statistics, Haver Analytics.
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16 Mexico’s Retail Sales Index Index 2003=100; SA GDP by PPP (1990-2018) $15,000 USD= median income. According to forecasts, income will grow 20% by 2016. Large domestic market Source: INEGI/ IMF. HistoricForecast
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Mexico’s global leadership 17 IT 3rd largest exporter in the world. AUTOMOTIVE AND AUTOPARTS 8 th producer and 4 th exporter globally of new light vehicles in the world. ELECTRIC- ELECTRONIC Leading flat television screen exporter in the world. AEROSPACE Mexico is the 6th supplier to the American aerospace industry. Source: ProMéxico with information of FEMIA, GTA, AMIA y OICA.
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Exports of Medium and high manufactures as percentage of the GDP (2013)* 18 28.9% 24.8% 16.7 % 14.1% 12.4% 1 2 3 4 5 Germany South Korea China Mexico France A sophisticated economy Source: ProMéxico with information of IHS – Global Insight. / * Only G20 nations.
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www.promexico.gob.mx promexico@promexico.gob.mx @ProMexicoTW +52 (55) 54 47 7000 Camino a Santa Teresa 1679, Col. Jardines del Pedregal CP 01900, México, D.F. 19
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