1. Clonal Deployment Revisited Results from a simulation model to minimise risk for both a known and unknown future pest Alvin Yanchuk 1, John Bishir 2 John Russell 1 and Ken Polsson 1 1. BC Forest Service 2. NC State Univ

2. Introduction Libby (1982), Roberds et al (1990)Libby (1982), Roberds et al (1990) single gene models, plantation failuresingle gene models, plantation failure more than 30 clones does not provide any advantagesmore than 30 clones does not provide any advantages sometimes 1 is bestsometimes 1 is best Libby (1982), Roberds et al (1990)Libby (1982), Roberds et al (1990) single gene models, plantation failuresingle gene models, plantation failure more than 30 clones does not provide any advantagesmore than 30 clones does not provide any advantages sometimes 1 is bestsometimes 1 is best

6. Introduction Issues to consider:Issues to consider: growth and yield growth and yield deployment patterns deployment patterns current known and future unknown threats current known and future unknown threats disease &pest resistance - evolutionary concerns disease &pest resistance - evolutionary concerns Issues to consider:Issues to consider: growth and yield growth and yield deployment patterns deployment patterns current known and future unknown threats current known and future unknown threats disease &pest resistance - evolutionary concerns disease &pest resistance - evolutionary concerns

7. Objectives maximize volume at rotation number of clones deployed number of clones deployed planting patterns planting patterns current and future pest threat current and future pest threat environmental attributes environmental attributes maximize volume at rotation number of clones deployed number of clones deployed planting patterns planting patterns current and future pest threat current and future pest threat environmental attributes environmental attributes

8. Methods Tree and Stand Simulator (TASS - B.C. For.Ser.) –individual stems, competition-driven Spruce weevil and clonal deployment model Spruce weevil and clonal deployment model –plants trees using different deployment scenarios –tree resistance mechanisms –spruce weevil movement, dynamics, damage –impact on growth and yield (interaction with TASS) Tree and Stand Simulator (TASS - B.C. For.Ser.) –individual stems, competition-driven Spruce weevil and clonal deployment model Spruce weevil and clonal deployment model –plants trees using different deployment scenarios –tree resistance mechanisms –spruce weevil movement, dynamics, damage –impact on growth and yield (interaction with TASS)

9. Deployment numbers & patterns Numbers of clones 2, 6, 18 and 302, 6, 18 and 30 Deployment strategiesDeployment strategies Random Mix (RM)Random Mix (RM) Single Clonal Blocks (SCB)Single Clonal Blocks (SCB) Mosaic of Clonal Blocks (MCB)Mosaic of Clonal Blocks (MCB) Numbers of clones 2, 6, 18 and 302, 6, 18 and 30 Deployment strategiesDeployment strategies Random Mix (RM)Random Mix (RM) Single Clonal Blocks (SCB)Single Clonal Blocks (SCB) Mosaic of Clonal Blocks (MCB)Mosaic of Clonal Blocks (MCB)

10. Random Mixes

12. Single Clone Blocks

13. Mosaic of Clonal Blocks - 2 clones

14. Mosaic of Clonal Blocks - 6 clones

15. Weevil Parameters weevil introductions into plantationsweevil introductions into plantations – each tree starts with 2 weevils –6 weevils / tree on 6 corner trees –no weevils weevil introductions into plantationsweevil introductions into plantations – each tree starts with 2 weevils –6 weevils / tree on 6 corner trees –no weevils

16. Environmental Parameters two average annual temperatures (7 C and 11 C)two average annual temperatures (7 C and 11 C) two site indices (24 and 30)two site indices (24 and 30) two sizes (1 and 5 hectares)two sizes (1 and 5 hectares) two average annual temperatures (7 C and 11 C)two average annual temperatures (7 C and 11 C) two site indices (24 and 30)two site indices (24 and 30) two sizes (1 and 5 hectares)two sizes (1 and 5 hectares)

17. Clones FixedFixed known pestknown pest resistance mechanismsresistance mechanisms RandomRandom unknown future threatunknown future threat

18. Clonal Parameters ATR - attractiveness (volatile) 10=extremely attractive RES - rate of resin flow rate RES - rate of resin flow rate 10 = maximum flow TOX - toxicity of resin TOX - toxicity of resin 10=100% toxic ATR - attractiveness (volatile) 10=extremely attractive RES - rate of resin flow rate RES - rate of resin flow rate 10 = maximum flow TOX - toxicity of resin TOX - toxicity of resin 10=100% toxic

19. Clonal Parameters GRW - tree ‘vigour’GRW - tree ‘vigour’ -grown in absence of weevil h 2 =1.0 for ATR, RES, TOXh 2 =1.0 for ATR, RES, TOX h 2 =0.5 for GRWh 2 =0.5 for GRW GRW correlated with RES (r g =0.5)GRW correlated with RES (r g =0.5) GRW - tree ‘vigour’GRW - tree ‘vigour’ -grown in absence of weevil h 2 =1.0 for ATR, RES, TOXh 2 =1.0 for ATR, RES, TOX h 2 =0.5 for GRWh 2 =0.5 for GRW GRW correlated with RES (r g =0.5)GRW correlated with RES (r g =0.5)

20. Parameters of resistance for fixed clones three clonal scenarios : 1) 2 clones:1 & 2 2) 6 clones: 1 to 6 3) all 18 clones attempted to have :attempted to have : good growthgood growth various resistance combinationsvarious resistance combinations

21. Random Clones (Unknown Future Threat) clones drawn randomly from normal distributionclones drawn randomly from normal distribution RES,TOX,ATR:  =0.5,  =1.5RES,TOX,ATR:  =0.5,  =1.5 GRW:  =1.0,  =0.1GRW:  =1.0,  =0.1 up to 30 runs per scenarioup to 30 runs per scenario clones drawn randomly from normal distributionclones drawn randomly from normal distribution RES,TOX,ATR:  =0.5,  =1.5RES,TOX,ATR:  =0.5,  =1.5 GRW:  =1.0,  =0.1GRW:  =1.0,  =0.1 up to 30 runs per scenarioup to 30 runs per scenario

25. 18 fixed clones (WD=1, TMP= 11, SI=30, Ha=1)

28. Top 50% clones=85% volume Ne reduction 20%

31. Conclusions range of ‘acceptable’ numbers of clones, between 6-18 range of ‘acceptable’ numbers of clones, between 6-18 random mix was always the best random mix was always the best most elite genotype will do most of the work most elite genotype will do most of the work effective population sizes change only by ~20% effective population sizes change only by ~20% current BC policy of Ne = 20 tested clones current BC policy of Ne = 20 tested clones

32. Conclusions Changes in other model parameters minimal effects: – temperature differences – 1 vs 5 ha – insect “introduction” patterns – site index

33. Conclusions Additional questions that remain :Additional questions that remain : – deployment across the landscape

35. Conclusions Additional questions that remain :Additional questions that remain : – deployment across the landscape allelic model for resistances (MGR) – allelic model for resistances (MGR) – clonal ideotypes /among and with clone competition -full-sib family deployment