1. March 8 th JustEd Pre-conference Helsinki The origin of different growth patterns in HE and the question of social justice Jón Torfi Jónasson School of Education University of Iceland jtj@hi.is

2. The question What are the dynamics behind HE expansion? Who are responsible? – Governments? – Industry? – The universities themselves? Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016 The Hidden Dynamics of the Expansion of Higher Education Contrary to what many policy experts believe to be true, I suggest that the primary agents are the – Students And the policies and institutional responses during the 20 th century, resulting in both institutional and academic drift and the oscillations between drift toward homogeneity and heterogeneity are largely (but not only) sensible responses to the students “assault” on HE. My argument rests largely on the analysis of the very long- term growth rates, of different social groups within HE. Their regularity, tied to certain similarities and certain differences observed, provide the most important clues.

3. The thesis I argue that there is an underlying dynamic mechanism involved in the expansion of Higher Education, which operates similarly in, and also within, many national systems It is hidden in the sense that it needs to be demonstrated or pointed out Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016 The Hidden Dynamics of the Expansion of Higher Education

4. The argument – the storyline HE has expanded quite noticeably in most education systems It is argued here that the expansion of education is usefully described as exponential expansion. It transpires that the expansion is both ubiquitous and robust When applied to gender, the story reveals a new interpretation of the gender gap A credential account. It is suggested that a credential account fits the stability in the expansion well. It presents a dynamic account where the credentials provide a dynamic diffusion power that seems to operate both for the system as a whole but also within different social groups. The diffusion mechanisms seem to be in an important sense confined to groups, but operate identically for these groups. Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

5. The data The sources Various official sources, notably the UNESCO, the US and the Japanese ministerial agencies, the Nordic official agencies and the OECD data bases. Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016 Manipulation of data The absolute numbers are modulated by cohort sizes when obtained directly We also use GER (Gross enrollment ratio), where the absolute numbers are modulated by the cohorts who typically would attend the institutions in question. We calculate exponential slopes by using the ln of the curves or by using the best fit function in excel. We use an algorithm to calculate the saturation logistic curve (S- curve), selecting an asymptote, somewhat arbitrarily. The variables Enrolment in HE (using each countries definition) Graduation from different levels of HE.

6. A technical note Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

10. Notice a)In this graph we have not introduced saturation The “old” Gender Gap? The “new” Gender Gap?

11. Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016 Expansion on a global scale

12. Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016 Expansion rate = 0.0415 or approx. 4.2%

13. Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

15. But what about “very different” systems? Consider the HE systems in the US and Japan as examples. We will present gender divided data and only for females, where the regularity is easier to discern. First the US then Japan. The method. 1. Consider the enrolment in HE in the growth period after the second war, which is often considered to show growth attached to optimism and belief in education. 2. Consider what would be predicted on the basis of prior developments i.e. for the first part of the 20 th century using the exponential fit. 3. Consider then what would be predicted for the rest of the 20 th century. Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

16. Expansion of HE: USA Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

17. Expansion of HE: USA Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

18. Expansion of HE: USA Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

19. Expansion of HE: USA Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

20. Expansion of HE: USA Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

21. Expansion of HE: USA Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

22. Expansion of HE: Japan Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

23. Expansion of HE: Japan Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

24. Expansion of HE: Japan Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

25. Expansion of HE: Japan Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

26. Expansion of HE: Japan Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

27. Expansion of HE: Japan Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

28. The gender story - The Gender Gap The gender story will be expressed in “rates of growth” terms. We will do this, noting the premises of our story and then demonstrating its usefulness using two approaches: The premise: We use two variables. The initial level of attendance or graduation rate and the rates of growth. With reference to the data, the enrolment level of females is initially lower than for males, but the rate of growth is higher. Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

29. The gender story - The Gender Gap 1)We will show by example how this fits a detailed description of the gendered expansion pattern, as phrased by Schofer and Meyer (2005). 2)We will show by data from several sources how this account covers data from different social groups, different countries and aggregates over different national groups (in the reverse order). Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

30. Expansion of HE and Gender Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

31. Expansion of HE and Gender Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

32. Expansion of HE and Gender Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

33. Expansion of HE and Gender Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

34. Expansion of HE and Gender The Nordic countries Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

35. Expansion of HE and Gender1970-2012 Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

36. The Gender Gap A digression Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

38. Description from Schofer and Meyer 2005 Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016 Initially (around 1950) higher education enrollment ratios were quite low: just over 2 percent for men and less than 1 percent for women in the average country. The initial expansion disproportionately involved men, increasing the gender gap from about 1.5 points to over 3 points. In raw terms, however, the gap begins to shrink starting after 1970, and parity is achieved around 1990. By 2000 the average female enrollment ratio is higher than the male average by 6 points, a difference of almost 25 percent. It is noteworthy that the “new gender gap,” which has recently been observed in studies of industrialized countries, is also evident in our global averages. The overall trend, however, is similar for men and women. Enrollment ratios grow by more than an order of magnitude over the period, dwarfing the between-gender differences. p. 909.

39. Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016 Notice a)That the low flat line has higher growth rate b)That the lines diverge for a while even though the approaching line has higher growth rate c)Many people thought that when parity was researched there would be parity from then on d)The divergence is much more robust and occurs at a much higher rate than before e)In this graph we have not introduced saturation The “old” Gender Gap? The “new” Gender Gap?

40. Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016 We should think in terms of saturated developments rather than the simple exponential growth

41. The US gendered development Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

43. The next decades males versus females

44. Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

50. Age groups Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

55. Ethnic groups – US data Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

59. The growth coefficients for males and females, White, Black and Hispanic students Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016 Note: a)The ratios (Female/Male) are always > 1 b)The highest rate is for Black women c)The rate for Black men is second highest d)The lowest rate is for Hispanic men

60. Master programs US data Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

65. Institutions Institutional difference The expansion of education within types of education – How do the above patterns apply to different levels of HE? The data for different institutions will throw light on a suggestion that a strong force pushing the colleges towards universities may be largely due to the students voting with their feet. They want vocational or professional degrees, but only provided that their status is high enough. So if the status differential is too high (as they perceive it) they prefer the university even if they would prefer the professional degree. The only response to this is to enhance the status of the institutions giving the professional degrees. Here the reference is to implicit mechanisms that can only be discerned if one looks at trends over very long times. Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

66. The argument – the storyline It is argued here that the expansion of education is usefully described as exponential expansion. It transpires that the expansion is both ubiquitous and robust When applied to gender, the story reveals a new interpretation of the gender gap We see the differences between social (ethnic) groups and age groups in a new light A credential account. It is suggested that a credential account fits the stability in the expansion well. It presents a dynamic account where the credentials provide a dynamic diffusion power that seems to operate both for the system as a whole but also within different social groups. The diffusion mechanisms seem to be in an important sense bound to groups. Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

67. The argument – the storyline Given this credential account which implies that the growth of HE is in an important sense driven by the students seeking HE, the question then becomes, in more detail, what do they go by. The put some value on the credential and also the options that are open to them. They attempt to balance these two. I suggest that most students try to balance their ambitions towards a A)professional degree, something that helps them to have a desirable job B)degree that has some status, though this may vary a lot among individuals C)degree that is accessible (in terms of cost and placement) Government responses then are attempts to cater for these choices, in particular by directing students towards dimension A). Thus we can understand dynamics of the movement from a university dominated system, through a dual, and the binary towards a unified system – in order to protect choice A). Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016

68. Thank you Jón Torfi Jónasson Helsinki JustEd Preconference March 2016