1. Implement ed by for the European Commission Urban SIS - Climate Information for European Cities Lars Gidhagen project coordinator NACLIM workshop: Towards Urban Climate Services Brussels, 21/22 June 2016 SMHI

2. pace On behalf of for the European Commission 2

3. pace On behalf of for the European Commission 3 Target: - major European cities Pilot demonstrations: - Bologna - Stockholm - Amsterdam- Rotterdam Sectors: - Infrastructure - Health

4. pace On behalf of for the European Commission lsakjfklsdajf Urban Sectoral Information System C3S 441 Lot3 Proof of concept project 2016-2017  Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SE)  University of Reading (UK)  University of Umeå (SE)  ARPA Emilia-Romagna (IT)  University of Bologna (IT)  WSP (SE)  Veryday (SE) 4 Urban SIS

5. pace On behalf of for the European Commission 5 CONCEPT: DOWNSCALING CLIMATE AND IMPACT INDICATORS TO THE URBAN SCALE (=1X1 KM 2 ) ECV * variables forming the basis for impact indicators:  precipitation (and snow)  water vapour  temperature  wind speed and direction  surface radiation budget  urban background air quality (NO2, O3, PM10, PM2.5)  soil moisture and river discharge (with upstream contributions) Presented as hourly 1x1 km 2 gridded information for 5-10 year windows for historical and future conditions. Impact indicators tailored for urban infrastructure and health * ECV = Essential Climate Variables

6. pace On behalf of for the European Commission The downscaling model tools and data sources: 6 1.Climate: The Numerical Weather Prediction system HARMONIE - improved land use input from Urban Atlas 2.Air Quality: The regional air quality dispersion model MATCH - emissions from each city or (fall-back) CAMS/EMEP 3.Hydrology: The hydrological model HYPE - improved land use input from Urban Atlas

7. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Time horizons 7  Historical (used for validation): 2006-2010 (…-2014) - Meteorological boundaries from UERRA (complete HARMONIE model output stored at SMHI for further downscaling) - Emissions of air pollutants from CAMS/EMEP as input to pan- European MATCH model to generate boundary conditions - pan-European setup of HYPE (E-HYPE) generating upstream conditions for urban areas  Present and future projections: 2006-2010 (present) and 2045-2050? (future) - Meteorological model in climate mode forced by scenario from CMIP5) - Future air quality emissions from e.g. ECLAIRE FP7 project to give pan-European background levels

8. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Specific challenges: 8 1.Who are the end-users? 2.Which requirements do they have? 3.How provide input to the downscaling models, assuring the service to be given for all European cities? 4.How to provide sufficient support to end-users (portal, meta-data, examples etc)? 5.How provide the urban climate service on a level that does not compete with local consultants and purveyors?

9. pace On behalf of for the European Commission URBAN SIS AIMED TO SUPPORT TWO TYPES OF END USERS Advanced end users (consultants, urban engineers, modellers):  improved input data to run local impact models  both historical periods and future climate projections Urban planners in general:  selected impact indicators for infrastructure sector (examples): - Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (precipitation) - design storms, storm movements - wind speed averages and extremes - …..  selected impact indicators for health sector (examples): - heat wave frequency / duration /number of tropical nights - average heat-related deaths - number of people exposed for air pollution above WHO guidelines - ……. 9

10. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Challenge: heat information for the health sector 10 Input data:  ECOCLIMAP default option for NWP model using SURFEX/TEB  Urban Atlas 2012 used to improve land cover types (100 m resolution)  building polygons from OpenStreetMap  building/tree heights available e.g. in Sweden (alternative required for other countries)  seasonal variation of Leaf area index (LAI) from Copernicus Global Land Service (1 km resolution) Validation data:  Traditional meteorological stations  New data e.g. from cars?

11. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Challenge: heat information for the health sector 11 Rural station outside Stockholm Station inside Stockholm centre

12. pace On behalf of for the European Commission 12 Challenge: heat information for the health sector Impact indicators:  Heat linked to increased mortality: based on PHASE – Public Health Adaptation Strategies to Extreme Weather Events (de Donato et al., 2015) - mapping of 75 th to 99 th percentiles of the daily mean temperature - risks taken from one of the PHASE cities, depending on interventions taken  Traditional statistical indicators: - Daily Max/Min/Mean tempeartures - Frost days / Ice days - Degree days - …..

13. pace On behalf of for the European Commission 13 Challenge: air quality information for the health sector Impact indicators:  Air quality linked to mortality: - Many difficulties to use PM2.5 levels as indicator linked to excess mortality (RRs from “between-city-studies” or from “intra-urban gradients in one city”) - WHO has not provided source-specific RRs for PM - New support for NO2 as an indicator (e.g. UK COMEAP)  Urban SIS suggest an indicator based on PM2.5 and NO2 together  Also RRs for mortality linked to O3 has been suggested  Traditional statistics: - Concentrations of PM10/PM2.5/NO2/O3 above EC limit values - Concentrations of PM10/PM2.5/NO2/O3 above WHO guidelines

14. pace On behalf of for the European Commission 14 Challenge: rainfall information for the infrastructure sector Impact indicators:  Areal short-duration rainfall extremes: - In larger cities the integrated flow response to intense rainfall require information on how the intensity/depth varies with area. This can be expressed as: - Areal Reduction Factors (ARF) - Depth-Duration-Area-Frequency curves (DDAF)  The spatial resolution of Urban SIS will allow information on this areal aspect of intense precipitation.

15. pace On behalf of for the European Commission 15 Challenge: rainfall information for the infrastructure sector Example plot of: Areal Reduction Factor (ARF)

16. pace On behalf of for the European Commission 16 Challenge: rainfall information for the infrastructure sector Example plot of: Depth-Duration- Area-Frequency (DDAF) Depth Area Frequency Duration

17. pace On behalf of for the European Commission http://urbansis.climate.copernicus.eu/explore http://urban-sis.smhi.se 17 Challenge: portal and GUI

18. pace On behalf of for the European Commission 18 Example: visualization and download of ECV data Download single or time series of:  grids  parts of grids  Pointwise Format: NetCDF or ASCII Metadata: Short information in NetCDF file. Complete meta- data in separate file/link attached to data (html?)

19. pace On behalf of for the European Commission End-user requirements for ECV data in Urban SIS 19

20. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Impact indicators under discussion 20 Heat Air quality Urban water The large number of proposed indicators has suggested the development of an ”impact indicator tool” that can generate city-specific indicators from e.g. Urban CIC ECV data.

21. pace On behalf of for the European Commission lsakjfklsdajf Thank you for your attention! lars.gidhagen@smhi.se 21 Urban SIS