2. Distance Education Technologies: A Global Perspective Professor J C Taylor Vice-President (Global Learning Services) University of Southern Queensland Australia

3. Distance Education Technology : A Global Perspective The Big Picture: A Global Perspective The Global Lifelong Learning Economy Institutional Leadership USQ’s e-University Project The Future

4. 1982 ICDE Conference in Vancouver: “Technology’s the answer, but what is the question?” Today, the technology has changed, but the question hasn’t!

5. Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted that every 50 years or so, technological revolutions would cause "gales of creative destruction” in which old industries would be swept away and replaced by new ones.

6. Technological Changes  Steam Power - 1780s to the 1840s  The Railways - 1840s to the 1890s  Electric Power - 1890s to the 1930s  The Motor Car - 1930s to the 1980s  Information Technology - 1980s to ?

7. Pace of Change 1. Radio: 50 million users in 38 years 2. Television: 50 million users in 13 years 3. The Internet: 50 million users in 5 years Common Prediction: One billion users by the year 2003

8. Internet Access Population (millions)  USA 165.7  Japan56.1  China 45.8  UK34.3  Germany32.1  South Korea25.6  Brazil13.9  Australia10.6  Netherlands 9.7  Sweden 6.1 Source: A C Nielsen, June 2003 Total global population estimated at 580 million

9. South America Internet Usage   Brazil 13,980,000   Argentina 3,880,000   Chile 3,100,000   Peru 3,000,000   Venezuela 1,300,000   Colombia 1,150,000   Uruguay 400,000   Ecuador 328,000 Source: World Factbook, May 2003

10. e-Readiness Rankings: Leaders 1Sweden8.67 2 Denmark8.45 3 (tie)Netherlands8.43 3 (tie)US8.43 3 (tie)UK8.43 6Finland8.38 7Norway8.28 8Switzerland8.26 9Australia8.25 10 (tie)Canada8.20 10 (tie)Hong Kong8.20 12Singapore8.18 13Germany8.15 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, March 2003 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score

11. e-Readiness Rankings: Contenders 14Austria8.09 15Ireland7.81 16South Korea7.80 17 (tie)Belgium7.78 17 (tie)New Zealand7.78 19France7.76 20Taiwan7.41 21Italy7.37 22Portugal7.18 23Spain7.12 24Japan7.07 25Israel6.96 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, March 2003 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score

12. The Knowledge Explosion Over 90% of the relevant literature in many technical fields, such as biotechnology, astronomy, computers and software, and environmental sciences, has been produced since 1985. Traditional programmatic approaches to education simply cannot keep up………... J B Quinn (2001)

13. The Knowledge-based Economy There are increasing signs that our current paradigms for higher education, the nature of our academic programs, the organization of our colleges and universities, and the way that we finance, conduct and distribute the services of higher education may not be able to adapt to the demands of our time. J J Duderstadt (2001)

14. Cost-effective Access In both developed and developing countries, the Internet will provide the only viable cost-effective conduit through which corporations and educational institutions will be able to provide access to ongoing opportunities for the continuing professional development of working individuals.

15. The question is: “How to change universities?” “E-Learning is the answer, but what is the question?”

16. Why should universities change? Increasing competition on a global scale. Organisational Development Challenge

17. Distance Education Technology: A Global Perspective The Big Picture: A Global Perspective The Global Lifelong Learning Economy Institutional Leadership USQ’s e-University Project The Future

18. Driver for Change 'The death of distance as a determinant of the cost of communications will probably be the single most important economic force shaping society in the first half of the 21st century'. Cairncross (1997)

19. The transition from the Industrial to the Information Age was encapsulated by Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued that to survive organisations would need to change from rigid, formula driven entities to organisations that were “fast, flexible and fluid”. Fast, Flexible and Fluid

20. Increasing Competition   has enrolled over 20,000 students in 1,700 online courses since 1996. UCLA’s OnlineLearning.net  Has offered student discounts, refer a friend gift certificates, frequent flyer points, opportunities to win free tuition.

22. Increasing Competition Cambridge University’s business school joined forces with FT Knowledge, part of the global communications group Pearson plc, to offer this new degree from September 2001. The Cambridge e-MBA

23. 791 years ago Cambridge University passed a rule requiring all students to reside in the town of Cambridge, England. In 2000 that rule was revoked. The 800 year-old rulebook had to be altered to make way for the university’s first Internet-enabled program, the global e-MBA. Fast, Flexible and Fluid?

24. Email reply received from University of Cambridge MBA Office on 13 March 2003. “Thank you for your enquiry concerning the Cambridge MBA course. We do not have on-line learning or distance learning, we have considered this but decided not to pursue this.”

26. Increasing Competition AllLearn (an e-learning partnership between Oxford University, Stanford University and Yale University) is offering 75 short courses in a dozen disciplines in the Fall Semester, starting 7 th October, 2002 http://www.alllearn.org

29. Increasing Competition In 2003, University of Phoenix Online has almost 50,000 students. It made a profit of $31.8 million in 2001, and a profit of $23.6 million in the first six months of 2002. Sources: The Economist (2002); Webzine (2003)

31. UOPX The share price for Apollo Group, Inc. (NASDAQ NM: UOPX) recently reached a new 52-week high, trading at $58.250 One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $26.410 The price has climbed more than 120 percent since then. Source: Zacks.com (2003)

32. Increasing Competition General Motors University now offers an eMBA to provide online learning to as many as 86,000 GM salaried employees. General Motors University

34. Increasing Competition IBM’s Mindspan Solutions workplace and training systems employs 3,000 people to develop customised e-learning content for 900 clients in 57 countries. (Source: K Dearne (2002), The Australian IT)

36. Future Projections  A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold (US$4.5 trillion) jump in global education expenditure during the next 13 years.   The World Bank expects the number of higher education students will more than double from 70 million to 160 million by 2025. (Source: Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal http://finance.news.com.au, 22 April 2000)

37. Future Projections  By 2005, e-learning will be the single most used application on the web.   Corporate investment in e-learning will grow from US$2.1 billion in 2001 to US$33.4 billion in 2005. (Source: Harris, Logan & Lundy, Gartner Research, 2001)

38. Leadership? The fact that the present traditional approaches based on conventional classroom-based teaching and learning will not be capable of meeting the escalating demand for higher education in the knowledge society has apparently failed to register in the minds of many executive managers of universities.

39. Will universities become extinct ? Within the next decade, the view that universities, like dinosaurs, may be unable to adapt to the increasing pressures of technological development and globalization is likely to gather empirical support.

40. What type of institutions will survive and thrive? Will your institution survive? The Global Lifelong Learning Economy

41. Distance Education Technology : A Global Perspective The Big Picture: A Global Perspective The Global Lifelong Learning Economy Institutional Leadership USQ’s e-University Project The Future

42. Institutional Capacity for Change While there is a great deal of business literature on companies that have “restructured” and re- engineered” to respond to new competitive threats and rapidly changing market conditions, universities are generally regarded as being stubbornly resistant to change as a result of the typically conservative and reactionary pressures both internal and external to the organization.

43. Pressures for Change Source: D Stace & D Dunphy (2001) Increasingly pervasive technologies More sophisticated customers with rising levels of consumer service expectations Increasing levels of competition More emphasis on quality assurance, performance management, and strategic benchmarking Demands for continuous innovation Demands for higher quality of worklife. Increasingly pervasive technologies More sophisticated customers with rising levels of consumer service expectations Increasing levels of competition More emphasis on quality assurance, performance management, and strategic benchmarking Demands for continuous innovation Demands for higher quality of worklife.

44. Leadership Challenge Stepping onto many a university campus in 2003 - as the information economy gains momentum – a visitor from 1950 would feel quite at home.

45. Leadership Challenge “The single greatest challenge facing managers in the developed countries of the world is to increase the productivity of knowledge and service workers.” Peter Drucker (1991)

46. Leadership Challenge “Technology is the key variable making possible, and imperative, the reinvention of the corporation”. Source: D Stace & D Dunphy (2001)

47. Leadership? Many higher education institutions continue to think of information and communications technology (ICT) primarily as an escalating cost and a management headache, rather than seeking to understand the major cost-benefits available if the organization can reorganize its fundamental core processes to take advantage of the technology.

48. In many universities the development of web-based initiatives is not systemic, but is often the result of random acts of innovation initiated by risk- taking individual academics. Random Acts of Innovation

49. Strategic Questions Does your executive management team acknowledge that the rapid evolution of ICT will demand a fundamental process of strategic transformation of your institution? Does your executive management team acknowledge that the rapid evolution of ICT will demand a fundamental process of strategic transformation of your institution? Does your institution have a well-defined set of operational strategies aimed at technology- enhanced responsiveness and associated organizational development?

50. Managing on The Edge of Chaos The Big Picture: A Global Perspective The Global Lifelong Learning Economy Institutional Leadership USQ’s e-University Project The Future

51. The implementation of education technologies including web-based applications at USQ is strategically planned, systematically integrated and institutionally comprehensive. Organizational Development

52. To be a world leader in flexible learning and the use of information and communication technologies USQ’s Strategic Direction

53. VCC Management Structure of Online Initiatives Information Infrastructure and Services Committee Information Infrastructure and Services Committee Online Teaching Management Committee Online Teaching Management Committee Online Systems Management Committee Online Systems Management Committee Academic Board Academic Board

55. USQOnline Course Enrolments (1999 – 2003) S3 estimated

56.  All students22,908  On-campus 5,720  Off-campus (Australia)12,606  Off-campus (Overseas) 4,582 Note: Students studying solely online 772 Enrolled Students USQ 2003

57. USQ’s International Students 2003  Singapore 1,598  Malaysia 2,327  Hong Kong 565  South Africa 288  United Arab Emirates 114  Japan 93  Pacific Islands 180  India 18  Canada 98  China 195  Germany 188 Total, incl. students from 67 other countries 6,976

58. Five Generations of Distance Education Technology  The Correspondence Model  The Multimedia Model  The Telelearning Model  The Flexible Learning Model  The Intelligent Flexible Learning Model

59. HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL Interactive multimedia Internet-based access to WWW resources CMC, using automated response systems Campus portal access to institutional processes & resources Interactive multimedia Internet-based access to WWW resources CMC, using automated response systems Campus portal access to institutional processes & resources Fifth Generation Yes

60. Incoming “new” admin question from student Previous Questions USQAssist: Self-service Knowledge Base Previous Answers “Immediate” admin feedback to student NO YES Search / Match Trigger Ask a question/ send an email USQ staff member – “New Answer” 5th Generation Application

61. Incoming “new” academic question from student Previous Questions Previous Questions Reusable Learning Objects Database Previous Answers Previous Answers “Immediate” academic feedback to student NO YES New Answer Search / Match Duty Tutor Trigger Metadata Schema Model 5th Generation Application

63. The GOOD System provides a simple way to Create, Manage & Re-purpose content

64. XML (eXtensible Markup Language) RENDITIONS: STYLE SHEET: CONTENT REPOSITORY: INPUT: Print Web CD DVD XSLXSLXSLXSLXSLXSLXSLXSL XML DTD (Document Type Definition) XML Editor

67. Incoming “new” admin question from student Previous Questions USQAssist: Self-service Knowledge Base Previous Answers “Immediate” admin feedback to student NO YES Search / Match Trigger Ask a question/ send an email USQ staff member – “New Answer” 5th Generation Application

68. During the first half of 2003 the system received:   an average 9,075 hits per week;   95, 322 student contacts;   61,579 answers viewed;   23,079 searches performed;   3,566 questions using the “Ask a Question” facility. During S1, the e-CRM also managed a further 37,755 email queries. During the first half of 2003 the system received:   an average 9,075 hits per week;   95, 322 student contacts;   61,579 answers viewed;   23,079 searches performed;   3,566 questions using the “Ask a Question” facility. During S1, the e-CRM also managed a further 37,755 email queries. USQAssist Self-Service Knowledge Base USQAssist Self-Service Knowledge Base

69. Student support staff also save 25% of their time through the use of the knowledge-base for the automatic generation of suggested answers to email, phone and face-to-face enquiries USQAssist Self-Service Knowledge Base USQAssist Self-Service Knowledge Base

74. The PC-ePhone

79. Distance Education Technology : A Global Perspective The Big Picture: A Global Perspective The Global Lifelong Learning Economy Institutional Leadership USQ’s e-University Project The Future

80. “Any new technology environment eventually creates a totally new human environment” Marshall McLuhan The e-Revolution

81. Institutional Sustainability Fast, flexible and fluid organizations that can provide: customized, high quality, value added services that satisfy customer needs with speed and accuracy at the appropriate price point, are the only institutions that will survive and thrive in the 21st century.

82. “Fantasyland” Is this “fantasyland” for universities typified by the hierarchical, bureaucratic academic structure in which the provision of services to students is significantly inhibited by the ineluctable internal focus of departmentalized and/or compartmentalized thinking, personalised agendas, fragmented objectives, overly complex procedures and dependence on management via multiple layers of committees that move with glacier-like momentum?

83. “Clicks and Mortar” are not enough Any organization hoping to survive and thrive in the information economy must become: open, non-hierarchical, democratic, experimental, tightly networked and endlessly adaptable open, non-hierarchical, democratic, experimental, tightly networked and endlessly adaptable

84. To survive and prosper organisations need to mirror the Internet and to develop a collective brain capable of - “habitual and radical innovation” (Gary Hamel, Inside the Revolution, 2001) “habitual and radical innovation” (Gary Hamel, Inside the Revolution, 2001) “Clicks and Mortar” are not enough

85. The institutional capacity to execute an integrated approach to technology deployment constitutes a considerable competitive advantage. Competitive Advantage?

86. Competitive Disadvantage? “The greatest danger in times of turbulence, is not the turbulence…….. it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” Peter Drucker (1991)

87. In 1803 the British deployed a military attachment to stand on the Cliffs of Dover to watch for Napoleon. It was not until 1927 that the detachment was disbanded. Napoleon Bonaparte died in 1821. Source: Stace & Dunphy (2001)