1. Business Survey and Economic Outlook for Southern and Western Norway State of the Region Autumn 2015 Kyrre M. Knudsen, Chief Economist

3. Growth in the global economy close to normal

4. « The US economy performing well, Europe is improving – counteracts slower growth in China

5. The oil price is halved – we believe that it will increase, but not back to the level of the past «

6. Business survey Share of companies (in %) that expect an increase (the rest expect a decrease)

7. Weaker Development among the Companies One of two companies (49 %) are positive… ….which is lower than last year. 1 Main index

8. The bottom is yet to be reached 2 Lower profitability, investments and order backlog, and… companies are adjusting Investments Profitability Order backlog

9. ... ledelsen er ikke i tvil om at man kommer styrket ut av omstillingen, selv om tiltakene smerter i dag. The crisis is a warning to work smarter

10. Stable employment outlook 3 Some will increase employment,… some will reduce and… many have steady manning plans Employment

11. Majority of new jobs are created in already existing companies... vi har satt som mål å hjelpe våre samarbeidspartnere til å redde 500.000 flere liv hvert år innen 2020.

12. Manufactuering dampened by oil decline 4 Weaker in the industrial sector, and… 2 out of 3 oil companies expect a downturn, but… Growth in the world and a weak currency improves the situation for some. a Manufactuering Construction Retail trade Other Total

13. Oil-exposed companies taking a hit 4 2 of 3 oil-exposed companies expect downturn (index of 31). Twice as many now seek new markets. Weak currency is positive Share of turnover related to oil and gas. ** Oil companies reporting they are seeking new markets b None* Below 1/3* More than 2/3* Oil companies seeking new markets** Average all Between 1/3 and 2/3*

14. The sector aims to lift turnover and production by 500% towards 2015

15. Significant differences between counties Hordaland most positive (56% positive) Agder close to neutral (51%) Rogaland is the least positive (42%) because of highest oil exposure 5

16. Industrialisation and standardisation are vital

17. Oil is pulling Rogaland down 5

18. Something positive in Rogaland 5 b

19. Where do we go from here? «New opportunities»«Many opportunities» «Few opportunities» «Lost opportunities» LOW OIL PRICE HIGH OIL PRICE ABILITY TO CHANGE