1. DNV GL © 2016 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2016 HVAC 1 Upstream HVAC 1 2013-14 Program Year Impact Evaluation

2. DNV GL © 2016 2013-14 Research Plan  Public review in 2015 (www.energydataweb.com)www.energydataweb.com  Non-residential, majority of HVAC savings  Incentives to Distributors for High Efficiency – Chillers – Packaged Rooftop Units (Unitary) – Mini-split and VRF 2

3. DNV GL © 2016 2013-14 Tracking Data 3 Upstream Measures Program Tracking Savings Q1-Q8 Measure Group # of Sites % of Total kWh Savings % of Total HVAC Chiller Air Cooled 4252.71%31,788,77426.89% HVAC Chiller Water-Cooled 1210.77%17,591,44414.88% HVAC Rooftop or Split System 13,28584.77%56,898,43048.13% Mini/Multi-Split (SCE, ESPI) 2221.42%379,9060.32% VRF Systems 1,61810.33%11,942,8829.78% Total 15,671100%118,221,530100%

4. DNV GL © 2016 Overview of the Research Plan 4

5. DNV GL © 2016 Deviations from Research Plan 5 Objective from Research Plan In Report Status Detail / Why? Ex post gross kW, kWh, therm, RR Partial kWh/kW impacts passed through for mini split/VRF measures. Ex post net kW, kWh, therm, RR No NTG surveys and analysis behind schedule. Will be reported in a follow-up addendum. Assess program documentation No No specific discussion of documentation; results incorporated into RR. Reasons for deviations Partial Additional explanation may be necessary for low and high realization rates Timely feedback for improvements Partial Results of mini-split/VRF measure literature review presented to HVAC PCG Market Survey for minisplits/VRF Yes Metering PilotYes Installation rateNoIR results not separately reported Unit Energy Savings (UES) Partial UES presented by measure/size category. Appendix by building type and climate zone incomplete Sample SizePartialSee table Precision targetsPartialSee table

6. DNV GL © 2016 Deviations from Research Plan 6 MeasureIOUPlannedAchievedDifference Chiller PG&E4846 -2 SCE5253 1 Total10099 Large Unitary PG&E2726 SCE2324 1 SDG&E32 Total5352 Small Unitary PG&E5048 -2 SCE8041 -39 SDG&E102 -8 Total14091 -49

7. DNV GL © 2016 Deviations from Research Plan 7 Measure IOUPlannedAchievedDifference Chiller PG&E ±10%±11%-1% SCE ±10% 0% Total ±8%±9%-1% Large Unitary PG&E ±12%±13%-1% SCE ±13% 0% SDG&E ±1%±27%-26% Total ±9% 0% Small Unitary PG&E ±19% 0% SCE ±12%±18%-6% SDG&E ±20%±55%-35% Total ±10%±14%-4%

8. DNV GL © 2016 Results Chiller Systems 8 Sample Group Unit Size (tons) Ex Ante Total (kWh) Ex Post Total (kWh) Realization Rate Air-Cooled ChillersAll29,582,1423,229,30011% Water-Cooled Screw Chiller <15088,27266,58575% Water-Cooled Screw Chiller 150 - 3002,217,3911,675,11576% Water-Cooled Screw Chiller >300334,400209,51063% Water-Cooled Centrifugal Chiller <150235,068288,249123% Water-Cooled Centrifugal Chiller 150 - 3001,103,0121,800,408163% Water-Cooled Centrifugal Chiller >30012,850,61811,193,42387% Water-Cooled Total All16,828,76115,233,29091% All Chiller TotalAll46,410,90318,462,59040%

9. DNV GL © 2016 Key Findings- Chiller Systems  Air-cooled chillers accounted for 64% of all chiller upstream claims  Realization rate for all chillers 40%.  Air-cooled chillers low realization rate 11% – Efficiency closer to code based on site visits – Workpaper savings very high, 85% of cooling end-use consumption in models  Water-cooled chillers realization rate 91%. 9

10. DNV GL © 2016 Results All Unitary Systems Unit Size Total Tonnage Claimed Ex Ante Total (kWh) Ex Post Total (kWh) Realization Rate < 5 Ton21,6205,748,4946,250,783108.7% 5.5 - 11.5 Ton41,0288,878,03813,615,662153.4% 11.6 - 20 Ton40,12212,530,8692,212,18017.7% 20 - 63.3 Ton40,63015,339,6262,556,42516.7% >63.3 Ton12,1677,869,260915,52911.6% All155,56750,366,28725,550,58050.7% 10

11. DNV GL © 2016 Results-Large Unitary Systems 11 Unit Size Efficiency Level Total Claimed Tonnage Ex Ante Total (kWh) Ex Post Total (kWh) Realization Rate 20 - 63.3 ton9.8EER 9,107 3,438,284 -0.0% 20 - 63.3 ton10.5EER 3,935 1,485,678 165,97311.2% 20 - 63.3 ton10.8EER 17,399 6,568,820 1,117,35517.0% 20 - 63.3 ton11.5EER 6,605 2,493,817 701,87328.1% 20 - 63.3 ton12.5EER 3,584 1,353,028 571,22442.2% >63.3 ton10.2EER 3,188 2,061,688 125,6026.1% >63.3 ton11EER 8,979 5,807,572 789,92813.6% LargeAll 52,797 23,208,886 3,471,95415.0%

12. DNV GL © 2016 Key Findings-Large Unitary  DEER Updates reduced savings, more Tiers  Units found at code minimum  Unit energy savings in workpapers up to 70% of prototype end-use consumption leading to very low realization rates in some cases 12

13. DNV GL © 2016 Results-Small Unitary Systems 13 Unit Size Scenario Total Tonnage Adjusted Ex Ante Total (kWh) Ex Post Total (kWh) Realization Rate < 5 Ton 14 SEER/12 EER, 1speed 1,577419,343330,89978.9% < 5 Ton 14 SEER/12 EER, 2speed 2,037541,651792,301146.3% < 5 Ton 15 SEER /<13 EER, 1speed 5,0601,345,3921,105,60582.2% < 5 Ton 15 SEER /<13 EER, 2speed 920244,617372,633152.3% < 5 Ton >15 SEER/ >13EER, 1speed 8,0832,149,1331,916,41889.2% < 5 Ton >15 SEER/ >13EER, 2speed 3,9431,048,3581,732,928165.3%

14. DNV GL © 2016 Results-Small Unitary Systems 14 Unit Size (Ton) Scenario Working Econo- mizer Total Tonnage Adjusted Ex Ante Total (kWh) Ex Post Total (kWh) Realization Rate 5.5-11.511.5EER, 1spdYes 3,139679,170104,95715.5% 5.5-11.511.5EER, 1spdNo 1,046226,39048,08521.2% 5.5-11.512EER,1spdYes 7,0771,531,462458,01329.9% 5.5-11.512EER,1spdNo 2,359510,487209,83341.1% 5.5-11.512EER,2spdYes 9,5082,057,4854,059,182197.3% 5.5-11.512EER,2spdNo 3,169685,8281,651,611240.8% 5.5-11.513EER,2spdYes 11,0472,390,4125,029,065210.4% 5.5-11.513EER,2spdNo 3,682796,8042,054,916257.9% 11.6 - 2011.5EER,1spdYes 3,190996,204(946,404)-95.0% 11.6 - 2011.5EER,1spdNo 1,063332,068(378,907)-114.1% 11.6 - 2012EER,2spdYes 16,9425,291,1591,371,10425.9% 11.6 - 2012EER,2spdNo 5,6471,763,720591,50333.5% 11.6 - 2012.5EER,2spdYes 9,9603,110,788110,2253.5% 11.6 - 2012.5EER,2spdNo 3,3201,036,929474,65945.8%

15. DNV GL © 2016 Key Findings Unitary Systems 15  Context: Code changes and DEER updates – Units above code that have 2 speed fans – Some units sold that do not comply  Economizers tested - 75% functioning, progress from past studies, room to improve  Fan performance – collected data, still need more data for DEER update  The overall realization rate for unitary systems across all programs and measures was 51%.

16. DNV GL © 2016 Key Findings Unitary Systems 16  Some units met IOU IEER requirements that had full load efficiency at or close to minimum  DEER 2016 updates mapped IEER values to the performance curves to address this issue  Claimed savings for the largest size group appeared to be approximately 70% of the baseline cooling consumption prototypes  Some of the units surveyed from 20-63 tons only met baseline efficiency levels

17. DNV GL © 2016 Recommendations 17  Finding #1: Program savings were lower than expected – The primary driver overall was that the actual efficiencies of the installed equipment was lower than expected – Lowest were air-cooled chillers (11%) and large unitary (15%) – For these groups the ex ante savings was also problematic

18. DNV GL © 2016 Recommendations-Cont.  We recommend the following: – Set program efficiency criteria for full-load and part- load combinations. Pre-identify units that meet the criteria so savings claims are tied to make and model – Check unit energy savings estimates relative to the baseline cooling energy consumption per ton. This will improve the ability of future workpapers to check whether adjustment factors to DEER estimates produce reasonable savings. 18

19. DNV GL © 2016 Recommendations-Cont.  We also recommend the following: – Require distributors to obtain extended performance data for future simulations. DEER updates are limited by availability, may lag current top-of-the-line – Avoid building types that do not map to ex ante values. In general, the building types such as “Multiple” and “Miscellaneous” were associated with specific building types based on site visits – Using a calculated saving approach for large water cooled chillers (very high realization rate, but actual conditions very different than prototypes) 19

20. DNV GL © 2016 Recommendations-Cont. Finding #2: Upstream unitary HVAC systems have non-functional economizers – The evaluation team found that some (~25%) economizers are not functioning properly  We recommend the following: – Require evidence that the economizer is fully functional for final incentive payment. – Require documentation of Title-24 acceptance testing to ensure a functioning economizer that may include video/photographic evidence 20

21. DNV GL © 2016 Recommendations-Cont.  Finding #3: Inputs for DEER estimates appear to have improved – The field-testing of 5.5- 20 ton units showed that fan performance and part-load performance curves were similar to current DEER assumptions.  We recommend the following: – Use current DEER assumptions for deemed savings estimates for the 5.5-20-ton unitary system. – Collect additional data on fan performance to accurately characterize the program population. 21

22. DNV GL © 2016 Next Steps 22  NTG data collection and analysis  Additional field samples for SEER rated fan performance  Obtain additional performance data for highest IEER, SEER, and IPLV units  Report savings relative to simulation cooling end use for ex ante and ex post

23. DNV GL © 2016 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER www.dnvgl.com Posting Comments: http://www.energydataweb.com/cpuc/ search.aspx; select “2013-2014” program cycle and search “HVAC1”. Public comment may be posted to the Public Document Area through Tuesday March 15, 2016. http://www.energydataweb.com/cpuc/ search.aspx 23 Jason Meyer Jason.meyer@dnvgl.com 707.266.8332 (mobile) Lola Odunlami Lola.odunlami@cpuc.ca.gov 415.703.1893