1. Latin American and Caribbean Flood and Drought Monitor – What it does and does not do Figure showing current system Coarse resolution 25km, daily Satellite and global data only 7-day forecast Deterministic – single forecast Stream discharge only Meteorological forecasts only Links with decision makers

2. Proposed Improvements 1.Develop a higher resolution version – from 25km to 1- 5km 2.Downscale precipitation – from 25km satellite (TMPA) to 1-5km 3.Merge with station data – for historic period and real time 4.Implement a flood inundation model 5.Implement ensemble flood forecasts

3. Future Plans 1: Higher resolution version – 25km  1-5km High-res precipitation High-res soils dataHigh-res land cover data High-res elevation data High-res river networksHydrological model

4. How do we go from this Future Plans 2: Downscale precipitation Approach – use machine learning and lots of data to downscale arbitrary datasets across scales to this? 25-100 km < 1-5 km

5. Example of Precipitation Downscaling over the Southeastern US Observations (Radar+Gauges) Coarse Resolution Downscaled Downscaled + improved extremes 25km50km100km 12km

6. Future Plans 3: Merging with station data – for historic period and real time GSOD Global Station DatabaseChile National Station Database Tens of stations100’s of stations

7. Background field Corrected fieldObservation Optimal grid cell value x a is estimated by adjusting the background field x b (satellite) via a Kalman filter based on errors between gauge observations y o and their collocated grid cell values Hx b x a = x b + K (y o - Hx b ) x a = x b + K (y o - Hx b ) How we merge station data with gridded (satellite) data

8. Examples of Station Data Merging

9. CAMAFlood: Distributed global routing model that is capable of calculating river and floodplain values of: Water Storage Water Depth Discharge Inundated Area Future Plans 4: Implementation of flood inundation model Current LACFDMProposed Inundation Model Discharge Storage Inundated Fraction

10. River Levels (m) for the Amazon near Manaus at 500m res. (daily) Downscaling Water Surface Elevations

11. Future Plans 5: Ensemble flood forecasts – from a single forecast to ensemble forecasts

12. Future Plans 5: Ensemble flood forecasts – from a single forecast to ensemble forecasts Time Flow Current approach – single deterministic forecast Initial conditions + precipitation forecast Single forecast flow value – no account of uncertainties

13. Future Plans 5: Ensemble flood forecasts – from a single forecast to ensemble forecasts Time Flow Initial conditions + ensemble of precipitation forecasts New approach – probabilistic forecast Medium chance of this flow value of higher Low chance of this flow value of higher High chance of this flow value of higher

14. Summary of Proposed Improvements 1.Higher resolution 1-5km 2.Downscaled precipitation 3.Merge with station data 4.Flood inundation model 5.Ensemble flood forecasts

15. ChileBoliviaMexicoEcuadorUruguayPeru NeedsFlood early warning, drought EW Flood and drought EWS. Need local information and alerts Flood EW and drought EW. Translate to impacts and mitigation Flood EW, drought EW? Urban flood EW, drought EW Drought EW, floods EW Current Capacity100s of stationsExisting flood EWS. Regional climate mointoring 1000s stations. NA drought monitor. NOAA river forecast system 288 stations, Monitoring 3 rivers for floods Flood alerts in 1 city, expanding to other cities Monthly precipitation drought indices (CHIRPS + stations) Current use of the monitor None?Validation at stations None? Comparison Potential future use? Flood forecasting, drought EW for agriculture, water resources, … Validation of monitor. Provide data to local people. Integration of national data into monitor Early warning for monitoring, forecasting and decisions To identify flood prone areas Drought EW – monitoring and seasonal forecasts Integration of national precip data. Possible use of short- term and seasonal forecasts Common Needs and Themes

16. ChileBoliviaMexicoEcuadorUruguayPeru Resolution Timeliness Variables, metrics Linking to existing systems Common Needs and Themes