1. An Introduction of the BET model -An Integrated Assessment Model Including End-Use Technologies
Hiromi Yamamoto Masahiro Sugiyama Junichi Tsutsui
Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo
2013/07/30　32nd USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Anchorage

2. Background
An IAM (integrated assessment model) , which evaluates interactions between energy, the economy, and the environment, is a tool to guide policy discussions for long-term, global sustainable development (Weyant 1999).
Recently, advanced end-use technologies have received increasing attention as a key component of options for climate change mitigation (Kyle et al. 2011). Advanced electric technologies include heat-pump water heaters and EVs.
A combination of low-carbon power generation (such as renewables, thermal power with CCS, and nuclear) and advanced electric end-use technologies are a promising solution for drastic GHG (greenhouse gas) reduction.

3. Objectives
To develop an IAM (integrated assessment model) based on a general equilibrium technique (Ramsey’s optimal growth theory) and including advanced end-use technologies such as heat pump water-heater and electric vehicles.
Using the model, to analyze the effects of the advanced end use technologies.
We conduct on-off analyses of the advanced end-use technologies and evaluate the importance of the advanced end use technologies.

4. BET model
Basic-Energy-Economy-Environment-and-Enduse Technology Model (BET).
A MERGE-RICE type global model hard-linked with enduse technologies like MARKAL-MACRO.
The economic module is an one-sector CES (constant elasticity substitution) type production function.
The energy module is a bottom-up type model that describes vintage of energy facilities and electric load curves.
The primary energy includes coal, oil, natural gas, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, photovoltaic, and backstop.
World 13 regions; Simulation period: 2010 to 2230 with 10 year-intervals; an NLP model.

5. Figure
The
model
structure

6. Table
Energy
Services
In the
model

7. Regions and Energy systems
BET 13 regions
Region name
Region 3 letter
USA
usa
Europe (EU27+3)
europe
EUR
Japan
japan
JPN
Canada, Australia, and New Zealand
canz
CAZ
Other Eurasia
oeurasia
OEA
Russia
russia
RUS
China incl. Hong Kong
china
CHA
India
india
IND
Middle East & N. Africa
nafrica
MNA
Brazil
brazil
BRA
ASEAN & Korea
aseank
ASK
Other Latin America
olatam
OLA
Sub-Sahara Africa
safrica
SSA

8. Formulation of production function:
Patty -Clay type -function.
YN: (patty) production; Yt = (1-ζ) Yt-1 + YNt; ζ is a deplation rate.
KN: (patty) capital, ln: (patty) labor.
DN: Energy　services; DN = f(E).
Income identity:
EC is the sum of energy systems cost including enduse technologies.
Objective function:
θ: Negishi weight, df: discount rate..

9. Basic performance of BET.
population
Basic performance of BET.
GDP
TPES

10. GDP losses (Base case =0%)
GHG accumulation
targets
Off:
Advanced
End use
Techs
Are
Off;
On:
On.

11. Fig Power generation, upper: 2050 lower:2100

12. Fig Energy services, upper: 2050 lower:2100

13. Fig Energy services in vehicle services, upper: 450-off
Lower: 450-on

14. Conclusions
Using the BET model, we have conducted simulations and obtained the following results.
(1) Turning off the advanced end-use technologies results in GDP losses. Such losses become larger with a more stringent climate policy. The advanced end-use technologies are a way to contain GDP loss when the climate target is stringent.
(2) Electricity demand is relatively stable, but non-electricity demand decreases as the GHG constraints become more stringent. This is because electricity can be supplied using various low-carbon options such as renewables, nuclear , and thermal power with CCS.
(3) Electrification rates based on energy services are high under stringent GHG constraints. The combination of electrification and advanced electric end-use technologies is a powerful method to achieve strict GHG constraints.