1. Giscard ASSOUMOU ELLA giscard-assoumou-ella@etud.univ-tln.frgiscard-assoumou-ella@etud.univ-tln.fr CIREGED, Université Omar Bongo (Gabon) Ismaelline EBA NGUEMA ebanguemaismaelline@gmail.comebanguemaismaelline@gmail.com Université Mohammed V- Souissi (FSJESS) Ouverture commerciale et sécurité alimentaire : étude comparative des pays de la CEMAC et de l’UEMOA (Trade Openness and Food Security: a Comparative Study of CEMAC and UEMOA Countries)

2. Objective of the study A comparative analysis of the effect of trade liberalization on food security in CEMAC and UEMOA Countries during 1987-2014  What is the impact of openness on food security in CEMAC and UEMOA Countries?  The effect: the same (or not) in both regions?

3. The motivations and value added Few empirical studies on this question in CEMAC and UEMOA Countries Food insecurity problem: worrying in Africa Innovation in the method: a comparative analysis of two African regions Integration of all the four dimensions of food security defined by the FAO: availability, access, stability and utilization Effect of openness index and the terms of trade on the four dimensions of food security

4. Organization of the study:  Summary of the liberalization process in Africa and the implications on food security  A brief literature review  Empirical model  Results and conclusion

5. Summary of the liberalization process in Africa and the implications on food security

6. Colonial Economy: origin of extraversion of the African economies African pre-colonial agriculture:  Subsistence agriculture for the food self- sufficiency of the village or the family African colonial Economy (Rodney, 1987):  Agricultural and non agricultural raw materials  Export to the metropolis  Import of finished products

7. Two development strategies adopted after independence:  Socialism (Mali, Algeria, Tanzania…)  Neocolonial development strategy (Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon…) The Lagos Action Plan adopted in 1980:  More regional and pan-African integration to promote development Structural Adjustment Programs, multilateral and bilateral trade agreements:  More economic liberalization

8. Persistence of food insecurity in Africa The hunger riots that occurred in 2007 – 2011:  The insufficiencies of food policies conducted The FAO (2013, 2014) reports:  Amelioration of the situation in the world  But the number of undernourished people in sub-Saharan Africa increased from $ 173.1 million in 1990-92 to 222.7 million in 2011-13

9. Literature Review

10. The effect of openness on food security: the impact studies and empirical models The impact studies:  The results: no unanimity about the (potential) effect of openness on food security (Brooks and Matthews, 2014; Chang and Sumner, 2004; Lipchitz, 2007 )

11. The empirical models: variation of the results according to the dimension of food security:  Availability: no relationship between liberalization and rice production in West Africa (Lançon and Méndez del Villar, 2012);  Accessibility: a negative effect of openness on consumption prices index (Calderon, 2004; Bowdler and Malik, 2006);  Stability: exposure to the contagion of international prices instability (Gerard et al. 2008; Ambagna et al. 2012);  Utilization: negative impact of agricultural liberalization on food security in Nigeria (Abdullateef and Ijaiya, 2010)

12. Empirical Model

13. Food security index retained  Availability: Average value of food production (vmpa) and Share of dietary energy supply derived from cereals, roots and tubers (pcrtaea)  Access: Domestic food price index (inpa), Depth of the food deficit (ada) and Household final consumption index (hfce)  Stability: Value of food imports over total merchandise exports (viaetm), Cereal import dependency ratio (tdeic), Domestic food price volatility (ipdann), and Per capita food production variability (vdah)  Utilization: Prevalence of anemia among children under 5 years of age (paem5) and Number of undernourished people (npsa)

14.  Panel data econometrics ?  Presence of individual effect in the data: Lagrange multiplier test (Moulton and Randolph, 1989)  Modeling individual effects in fixed and random effects  Data source: FAO reports and World Bank

16. Interest variables: index: (exports + imports)/GDP; tot: terms of trade Control variables: rpop: rural population; upop: urban population; mort: infantile mortality; inv: private and public investment; hfce: household final consumption expenditure

17.  Test for the existence of bias rolling (Nijman and Verbeek, 1992)  Rejection of the absence of a rolling bias: incomplete panel  Correlation and heteroscedasticity problems  Heteroscedasticity and a possible unobserved heterogeneity corrections  Choice between fixed or random models: Hausman test (1978)

18. Results of the estimations and conclusion

19. : Availability UEMOA CEMACUEMOACEMAC log (vmpa) log (pcrtaea) REFE REFE REFEREFE Log (index) -0.003* (-1.65) -0.028*** (-2.96) -0.35*** (-3.33) -0.349*** (-3.49) 0.007*** (2.41) 0.006*** (2.49) 0.029* (1.63) 0.028** (2) log (tot) -5.74* (-1.63) -5.74* (-1.63) -1.1* (-1.75) -1.1* (-1.69) -8.69* (-1.85) -8.7* (-1.91) -2.86 (-1.53) -7.41 (-0.67) log (rpop) 3.18*** (2.52) 3.18*** (2.52) 6.01* (1.83) 6.05* (1.91) -8.56*** (-5.29) -8.57*** (-5.46) -1.35** (-2.08) -4.3*** (-7.54) log (upop) -0.001*** (-4.07) -0.001*** (-4.07) -0.001*** (-4.67) -0.001*** (-4.87) -2.3*** (-3.28) -6.76*** (-4.91) -2.5*** (-4.57) -1.76*** (-4.11) log (mort) -0.741*** (-5.03) -0.741*** (-5.03) -1.459*** (-4.76) -1.3*** (-4.98) 0.056*** (2.97) 0.056*** (3.07) 0.334*** (4.17) 0.259*** (3.42) log (inv) -2.35** (-2.1) -1.42*** (-2.48) -1.32*** (-2.83) -1.32*** (-2.96) -4.19*** (-2.75) -4.19*** (-2.84) -1.16* (-1.93) -1.3* (-1.94) log (hfce) 1.28 (0.33) 7.24 (0.00) 1.3*** (5.63) 1.34*** (5.92) 1.89*** (3.48) 1.89*** (3.6) 6.28* (1.65) 5.94** (2.36) const 7.169 (0.44) 8.155*** (12.44) 9.315*** (12.77) 8*** (13.32) 7.852*** (34.01) 8.261*** (17.7) 9.99*** (4.72) 9.091*** (12.63) 0.720.770.950.90.760.80.920.95

20. Access UEMOA CEMACUEMOACEMACUEMOACEMAC log (inpa) log (ada) log (hfce) REFEREFE REFEREFEREFEREFE log (index) -0.001* (-1.74) -0.001*** (-3.28) -0.008* (-1.65) -0.008* (-1.68) -0.123*** (-2.65) -0.146*** (-6.05) -0.523* (-1.79) -0.5* (-1.9) -1.636*** (-3.52) -2.183*** (-6.08) -1.33*** (-2.91) -1.02** (-2) log (tot) 2.24* (1.83) 2.45*** (2.24) 3.22* (1.68) 1.34* (1.82) 2.65*** (4.72) 7.56*** (2.63) 3.12* (1.65) 3.12* (1.72) -0.005*** (-6.62) -0.001** (-2) -0.001*** (-2.84) -0.001* (-1.65) log (rpop) -1.52** (-2.14) -1.52** (-2.14) -1.98*** (-6.94) -3.45** (-2) -0.91* (-1.65) -0.001*** (-2.98) -0.001*** (-4.1) -0.001*** (-4.35) -1.387*** (-6.62) -2.981** (-2.34) -3.759*** (-2.6) -8.879*** (-3.87) log (upop) 9.68 (0.37) 5.56 (0.78) 8.06* (1.68) 7** (2.27) 0.001* (1.84) 0.001*** (5.38) 0.001*** (4.8) 0.001*** (5.1) 1.149*** (16.08) 1.184*** (3.3) 6.594*** (4.69) 11.675*** (8.55) log (mort) 0.003*** (3.03) 0.003*** (3.03) 0.033*** (4.45) 0.514*** (2.97) 1.284*** (4.79) 6.05*** (11.1) 10.877*** (6.63) 10.877*** (7.04) -8.533** (-2) -7* (-1.84) -3.58*** (-2.67) -1.87*** (-7.22) log (inv) -7.06* (-1.62) -7.06* (-1.62) -3.81* (-1.93) -4* (-1.74) -5.15*** (-3.05) -5.15*** (-3.05) -1.38 (-0.63) -1.36 (-0.67) 1.942*** (11.41) 2.179*** (17.77) 1.279*** (7.73) 2.2* (1.8) log (hfce) 1.68 (1.1) 3.99 (0.19) 1.87*** (2.83) 2** (2) 1.14* (1.89) 1.87*** (3.6) 4.23 (0.63) 4.35 (0.67) const 2.344*** (29.36) 1.603*** (2.94) -8.378*** (-4.46) -8.963*** (-2.84) 10*** (12.81) 6.515*** (9.23) -9.95*** (-4.84) -10*** (-5.14) 1.97** (2) 2.88*** (3.2) 2.6*** (2.76) 1.75*** (6.99) 0.880.820.950.90.850.810.980.9 0.990.970.990.9

21. Stability UEMOA CEMACUEMOACEMACUEMOACEMAC log (viaetm) log (tdeic) log (ipdann) REFEREFEREFE REFE REFEREFE log(index) -0.091*** (-7.23) -0.09*** (-7.47) -0.037*** (-2.56) -0.023* (-1.68) 0.029*** (4.58) 0.029*** (4.73) 0.148*** (4.17) 0.15*** (4.37) 0.006* (1.84) 0.05*** (2.91) 0.086** (2.19) 0.087** (2.42) log (tot) 2.54* (1.76) 5.96* (1.8) 4.43** (2.16) 4.29*** (3.53) -3.64*** (-3.36) -3*** (-3.47) -1.11*** (-3.33) -1.112*** (-3.49) 7.81* (1.79) 6.28* (1.69) 4.98** (2.14) 4.99** (2.36) log (rpop) -1.02* (-1.69) -0.000* (-1.9) -6.89** (-2.53) -4.51*** (-6.73) -4.27*** (-11.45) -4.27*** (-11.82) -8.58*** (-7.46) -8.59*** (-7.82) -4.61 (-0.93) -3.44 (-1.05) -2.66*** (-2.76) -2.67*** (-3.04) log (upop) 9.05*** (2.84) 9.06*** (2.93) 2.47* (1.83) 2.31*** (3.94) 0.001*** (6.31) 0.001*** (6.52) 9.68*** (10.16) 9.88*** (10.65) 5.43*** (2.96) 5.43*** (3.14) 1.89 (0.24) 1.9 (0.27) log (mort) -0.36*** (-4.19) -0.564* (-1.78) -0.324* (1.86) -0.302*** (-2.91) -0.271*** (-6.24) -0.271*** (-6.45) -0.561*** (-3.95) -0.651*** (-4.13) 0.089 (1.19) 0.277 (0.8) 0.255** (2.34) 0.258*** (2.58) log (inv) 1.67*** (2.4) 3.49*** (3.6) 1.62*** (2.54) 1.76** (2.27) 1.55*** (4.4) 1.38*** (3.05) 2.96 (1.34) 2.98 (1.41) -1.09*** (-3.59) -1.26*** (-2.72) -8.68 (-0.75) -8.69 (-86) log (hfce) 8.41*** (3.41) 9.37*** (2.59) 3.6 (1.21) 3.05 (0.91) -4.53*** (-3.63) -3.71** (-2.2) -4.23*** (-5.68) -4.236*** (-5.95) 4.31*** (4.08) 4.61*** (2.65) 1.55*** (2.8) 1.58*** (3.08) const 9.083*** (9.4) 12.43*** (4.04) 9.155*** (3.12) 9.608*** (4.33) 9.477*** (11.41) 9.06* (1.7) 10.944*** (9.24) 10.384*** (10.732) 9.866*** (6.64) 10*** (7.53) 9.631*** (6) 10.631*** (4.06) 0.660.70.950.910.980.870.990.980.90.850.980.9

22. Utilization log (vdah) log (paem5) log (npsa) REFEREFEREFEREFEREFEREFE log (index) -0.12*** (-8.27) -0.172*** (-8.73) -0.171* (-1.64) -0.191* (-1.66) 0.011*** (3.48) 0.01*** (3.61) 0.042*** (4.36) 0.054*** (5.14) -0.001** (-2.16) -0.001*** (-2.47) -0.008*** (-2.96) -0.004* (-1.98) log (tot) 8.51*** (3.58) 4* (1.62) 6.18* (1.68) 3.9* (1.63) -1.84*** (-3.39) -1.83*** (-3.52) -1.53* (-1.65) -3* (-1.7) 2.77*** (3.77) 5.96* (1.65) 3.01*** (3.02) 4** (2) log (rpop) 6.23*** (7.2) 3.43* (1.8) 9.66*** (2.63) 10*** (2.87) 4.79*** (2.44) 4.8*** (2.54) 9.4*** (2.64) 8*** (3.5) -1.65*** (-5.85) -4.82*** (-4.31) -2.13** (-2.13) -3.57*** (-3.66) log (upop) -6.15* (1.63) -5.83* (1.65) 2.63 (0.97) 3.3 (0.43) -1.44* (-1.74) -1.4* (-1.8) -2.41*** (-9.12) -4.75*** (-13.71) 2.57** (2.2) 7.75*** (3.93) 3.68*** (4.54) 1.77** (2.72) log (mort) -0.92* (-1.85) -1.046*** (-2.5) -1.713*** (-2.8) -1.132** (-2) -0.067*** (-2.83) -0.066*** (-2.93) -0.212*** (-4.48) -0.185*** (-2.95) 0.016*** (4.57) 0.047*** (6.89) 0.044*** (2.86) 0.063*** (4.22) log (inv) 1.16* (1.62) 1.08* (1.96) 5.64 (0.55) 7.35 (0.61) 1.81 (1.03) 1.81 (1.07) 2.11 (0.3) 4.17 (0.79) -6.04*** (-2.74) -3.72** (-2.23) -3.85* (-1.9) -3.14*** (-3.04) log (hfce) 1.95 (0.75) 4.04 (0.92) 2.78 (0.84) 3 (0.1) -1.52*** (-2.44) -1.53*** (-2.54) -4.26** (-2.04) -4* (-1.75) -1.09* (-1.67) -1.27* (-1.93) -2.61*** (-4.98) -3*** (-2.55) const 11.431*** (9.96) 9.873*** (7.49) -7 (-0.84) -9 (-0.6) 7.707*** (30.63) 8*** (31.79) 9.446*** (16.97) 10*** (11.03) 2.462*** (6.74) 6.4*** (7.19) -2.012* (-1.62) -3* (-1.95) 0.810.790.990.90.720.780.90.950.620.630.990.9

23. Merci Thank you Akiba شكرا