1. Evaluating education options post-16 Sandra McNally Centre for Vocational Education Research, LSE

2. CVER: Who we are BIS funded research centre from March 2015 for 3-5 years LSE-led consortium of four institutions Institutions/node leaders are: -LSE: Sandra McNally -University of Sheffield: Steven McIntosh -Institute of Employment Studies: Stefan Speckesser - London Economics: Gavan Conlon Mostly economists doing quantitative research with large-scale administrative data sets and surveys Website: http://cver.lse.ac.uk/http://cver.lse.ac.uk/ You can subscribe to our newsletter. Send an email to: cver@lse.ac.uk

3. AgeYearPhase Curriculum stages QualificationsInstitutionsQualificationsInstitutions Post compulsory 18+14 Tertiary Level 4 & above Higher education institutions Further education colleges Classroom- based Entry level - level 3 Vocational, technical education and remedial education Employer-based Level 2 - Level 6 Apprenticeships and other on-the job education and training Further education colleges Private education providers Other public providers 17-1813 Upper sec Key Stage 5 Level 3 A/AS levels/Applied Generals/Tech Levels Sixth form colleges / Schools 16-1712 Compulsory education* 15-1611 Lower secondary Key Stage 4 Level 2** GCSEs Secondary schools 14-1510 13-149 Key Stage 3 12-138 11-127 10-116 Primary Key Stage 2 National tests Primary schools 9-105 8-94 7-83 6-72 Key Stage 1 Teacher assessments 5-61 4-5RReception Pre-school settings 0-4 Pre-school Notes:*The leaving age in England where individuals must engage in some form of education or training became 17 in 2013 and 18 in 2015. **Level 2 in GCSEs is achieved with grades A*-C

4. Post-16 choices in England (Hupkau, McNally, Ruiz-Valenzuela, Ventura) We create a panel for ages 16-20 for the cohort of 2010 KS4 completers (turning 16 and taking GCSEs in 2010) We use data from – National Pupil Database for prior attainment (age 11 (KS2) and age 16 (KS4) – …and for age 18 (KS5) outcomes – Higher Education Statistics Agency for university attendance – Individual Learner Record for further education

5. Level 3 and 4+ qualifications Level 4 and above: Bachelor degrees and other vocational qualifications at Level 4 and above Level 3 : A-Levels Applied Generals Tech Levels Key Skills / Functional Skills or NVQs Other Level 3

6. Example of an Applied General Pearson BTEC Level 3 Extended Diploma in Environmental Sustainability (QCF) – Sustainable Development – Business and the Environment – Water & Waste Management – Pollution Control and Management – Coastal Management – Transport and Urban Planning – Natural Resources Entry requirements: – 4 GCSEs at grades A*- C OR – BTEC Level 2 portfolio with a Merit or Distinction Characteristics: – 2 year programme, 1080 GLH (= 3 A levels of 360 GLH each) – Assessment: Course work, case studies, no exams – A triple distinction = UCAS Tariff points as 3 As at A-Level What you can do next: – Higher education (Construction and the Built Environment HNC, Construction Sustainable Design BSc (Hons), Construction Project Management BSc (Hons) or Construction Building Surveying BSc (Hons). – Typical career routes are Sustainability, Energy Management, Building Management and Estate Management. 6

7. Example of a Tech Level City & Guilds level 3 Subsidiary Diploma in Animal Management – Dog Grooming, Kennel and Cattery Management – Principles of Zoological Animal Health and Husbandry – Animal Breeding and Genetics – Planning and Monitoring Feeding – Managing Animal Accommodation – Animal Handling and Safe Working – Animal Biology, Anatomy and Physiology, Investigative Project Entry requirements: – Level 2 Certificate, Extended Certificate or Diploma in Animal Care and/or previous practical experience within an animal care environment Characteristics: – 360 GLHs – 40 to 140 UCAS points, broadly equivalent to 1 A level What you can do next: – This qualification could lead to employment: Animal Trainer Pet Store Manager Kennel Manager – Further training; – Learners may go onto Higher Education as these qualifications have UCAS points 7

8. Level 2 qualifications and below Level 2 Tech Certificate Vocational qualifications at Level 2: – BTECs at level 2 that do not fall under the Tech Certificate category, – NVQs at level 2, – Diplomas, Awards or Certificates at level 2 – and any other qualifications at level 2 that do not fall into any of the aforementioned categories. Key/Functional Skills at Level 2 GCSEs Below Level 2: All those with highest level of learning at L1 and below. Apprenticeships Unknown Not observed

9. Composition of learners at different ages (cohort undertaking GCSEs in 2009/10) Age 17Age 18Age 19Age 20 %% Above level 300.0425.3235.44 Level 3 qualifications A-Levels44.6737.965.960.29 Applied Generals5.389.275.61.33 Tech Levels4.457.414.771.9 KS/NVQ Level 30.050.420.430.19 Other Level 33.545.193.091.46 Level 2 qualifications Tech Certificates1.791.841.110.6 Vocational qualifications at level 29.536.913.992.59 Key/Functional Skills Level 20.490.340.350.23 GCSEs0.870.250.240.2 Level 1 and entry level Below level 210.865.914.643.68 Apprenticeships Apprenticeship Level 25.577.997.857.16 Apprenticeship Level 31.272.985.626.07 Apprenticeship Level 4+00.020.150.23 Unknown qualification5.491.6500 Not observed6.0511.8230.8838.63

10. Composition of Learners by activity at age 17 Stay-on Age 18 Level 3 qual by age 20 Commence apprent: age 18-20 Commence L3 apprent: age 18-20 Univ. Degree Russell Group other Level 4+ Total Main activity at age 17%%%% Level 3 Any level 3 qualification63.479.738.841.893.296.477.758.1 A-Levels49.362.825.930.083.594.547.7 44.8 Applied Generals5.66.85.04.44.50.910.4 5.3 Tech Levels4.75.74.24.33.40.512.8 4.5 Other Level 33.74.43.83.21.70.46.8 3.5 Level 2 Any level 2 qualification12.08.414.112.02.20.49.112.7 Tech Certificates1.61.32.11.70.10.01.0 1.8 Vocational qualifications at level 29.06.410.79.21.90.37.6 9.5 Level 1 and entry level Below level 29.92.69.65.20.20.11.4 10.9 Apprenticeship7.04.227.834.20.80.46.1 6.9 Unknown5.34.05.04.12.71.53.8 5.5 Not observed2.1.14.72.71.01.31.9 6.0 Total 507,304386,959118,18746,814192,78143,39523,087574,967

11. Activity at age 17: Share ever eligible for free school meals in each main category

12. Activity at age 17: Share achieving 5+ GCSEs at A*-C

13. Probability of achieving a Level 3 qualification by age 20 (relative to those studying below level 2 at age 17)

14. Probability of starting an apprenticeship between age 18-20 (relative to those studying below level 2 at age 17)

15. Individual-level data Individualised Learner Record (ILR) – Learner participation and achievement in Further/Vocational Education sector (further education colleges, sixth form colleges, independent learning providers, local authorities and voluntary and community organisations) – Funding allocation to providers (FE and work based) in academic, plus research – Socio-demographic data such as age, gender, ethnicity and address. – Traditionally (until 2010/11) collected by funding stream Further education (learner responsive); Work-based learning (employer responsive); Train to Gain (employer responsive); University for Industry (LearnDirect); Adult Safeguarded Learning; Adult and Community Learning; European Social Fund. – In each stream: Learner data, learning aims data and aggregate provider-level reconciliation statistics (known as an admin file) – Learning Aims Database. In total we were supplied with 159 separate ILR files covering the period 2002/3 to 2010/11. FE Outcomes Data (FEO) links 54 million learner and almost 114 million learning aims records

16. Facilitating data access Make our ‘data wiki’ more widely available We have approached the Administrative Data Research Network (ADRN) about an option to offer an access mechanism (in a controlled environment) to some of the data sets in CVER. They are discussing this with BIS. 16

17. Data Wiki