1. Exploring the Dimensions of U.S. Environmental Carrying Capacity Workshop David Dzombak November 9, 2009

2. CARNEGIE MELLON ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH AND EDUCATION Center for Sustainable Engineering Green Design Institute Climate Decision Making Center Center for Building Performance and Diagnostics Education: CEE sustainability sequence –Introduction to Sustainability –Industrial Ecology –Life Cycle Assessment –Advanced Life Cycle Assessment

3. GREEN PRACTICES MISSION Strive to develop university practices that improve environmental quality, decrease waste, and conserve natural resources and energy

4. THE STEINBRENNER INSTITUTE RESEARCH FOCUS AREAS Urban infrastructure and sustainable cities Energy transition strategies and the environment

5. KEY FACTOR: POPULATION I = P x A x T Environmental Impact = Population x Affluence (consumption per person) x Technology (damage per unit of consumption) Source: Ehrlich and Holdren, Science, 171:1212-, 1971

7. 100M 200M 300M 19151967 US POPULATION 1790-2006 2006 Source: US Census Bureau

8. WHAT HAPPENED TO POPULATION IN U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT? Late 1960s, early 1970s: population at the center of discussion in the modern environmental awakening Now, don’t hear much about population: we’re focused on “footprint” reduction Not a focus for most environmental groups

9. WHAT HAPPENED TO POPULATION IN U.S. ENVRONMENTAL MOVEMENT? Replacement level fertility achieved in U.S. in 1970s Population stabilization advocacy seen as inherently linked to abortion advocacy Focus on urban pollution (air, water, land) and health issues; role of population secondary Immigration became primary population growth factor; linkage to racial equity and human rights issues Population seen as a global issue and not a national issue Source: Kolankiewicz and Beck, 2001

10. IMMIGRATION AND U.S. POPULATION GROWTH

11. POPULATION – STILL A KEY FACTOR Search for more sustainable energy, food, water, mineral sources - the challenge is magnified by the need to meet future expanded demand in addition to current demand Sustainable use of resources depends not only on lowering footprint, but also on the number of feet

12. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE 1980-2008 Yellow: 10-30% Orange: 30-70% Red: 70-100% Pink: >100%Source: NumbersUSA

13. POPULATION AND CARRYING CAPACITY Carrying capacity –ecological concept –population of organisms that can be sustained at steady state considering the resources available in the ecosystem Concept applied at different ecosystem scales, e.g., an aquarium to the entire planet Larger the ecosystem, more difficult to quantify

14. EXPLORATION OF THE DIMENSIONS OF CARRYING CAPACITY, U.S. AND GLOBAL Group of Carnegie Mellon faculty members have been meeting over the past year to discuss the dimensions of the carrying capacity challenge EPP project class: Spring 2009 Goals: –learn about previous and current scholarly work pertinent to the issue of U.S. environmental carrying capacity –identify key issues and research questions

15. EXPLORATION OF THE DIMENSIONS OF CARRYING CAPACITY Question of max number of people that can be supported by resources of a nation or the globe can only be answered by development of a model Need assumptions for many of the diverse factors related to this question, including the core factor of the desired standard of living Easy to challenge any model and related assumptions

16. EXPLORATION OF THE DIMENSIONS OF CARRYING CAPACITY In an open democratic society, most decision making affecting population is decentralized: population is the result of many decisions, personal and communal Decision making is driven by incentives Role of government limited; can inform people and provide incentives to nudge decisions that affect population in direction of higher standard of living

17. RESEARCH TO INFORM DECISIONS RELATED TO POPULATION AND CARRYING CAPACITY Need for broadly useful aggregate measures and indices of resource consumption and quality of life Determine relationships of these measures to population growth, to make clear impact of population Make the measures and indices widely available for the purpose of informing distributed decision making

18. U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY WORKSHOP OUTLINE Session 1: Non-food Resource Consumption and Availability Session 2: Food Consumption and Availability Session 3: Impact of Population Growth on Resources and Standards of Living

19. U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY WORKSHOP GOALS Identify key issues and research questions pertinent to the topic of U.S. environmental carrying capacity Identify kinds of expertise and collaborations necessary to address these research questions

20. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Colcom Foundation John Rohe EPP Project Class of Spring 2009 Invited scholars